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Old 08-11-2012, 04:45 AM   #31
General
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

I don't see Obama getting re-elected if he adds less than 100k in each of the next three months like he did in June adding only 80k jobs.

Romney doesn't have to be the next Ronald Reagan to be elected president. He doesn't have to have his charisma or his charm. He just has to convince independents in swing states that Obama's economic policies have failed. That statistic of unemployment above 8% for 42 straight months will be in attack ads in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado etc. There are polls that show people believe Romney would do a better job running the economy.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...omy/56439758/1

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Old 08-11-2012, 12:12 PM   #32
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

I think you're missing the nature of this election and how it's different from before. Do you live in a swing state or you in an area that reliably blue or red. Because the advertising in swing states has been going on for months now. Also with this new groups that aren't aligned with a candidate can now raise tons of money, these third party ads have been going for months two. So these states have already seen tons of anti-Obama ads from before the primaries were and now tons of anti-Romney ads from when he got selected. So most folks already know what's up and here's the current situation regarding the recent polls in swing states.

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Old 08-11-2012, 12:32 PM   #33
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I just can't believe Romney is introducing Paul Ryan, the guy who wants to cut the Veterans care down to only soldiers with a service related condition, in ****ing Norfolk, Virginia of all places.
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Old 08-11-2012, 12:53 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Rose
I just can't believe Romney is introducing Paul Ryan, the guy who wants to cut the Veterans care down to only soldiers with a service related condition, in ****ing Norfolk, Virginia of all places.

The Romney strategy is kind of baffling. Paul Ryan's claim to fame and the reason for his reputation is the budget plan he has been pushing. Look at this talking point that the Romney gave out to reporters

Quote:
Questions and Answers About The Romney/Ryan Ticket:

1) Does this mean Mitt Romney is adopting the Paul Ryan plan?

· Gov. Romney applauds Paul Ryan for going in the right direction with his budget, and as president he will be putting together his own plan for cutting the deficit and putting the budget on a path to balance.



We think the guy will make the best VP, but we reject the one thing he is known for? How is that going to work?
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Old 08-11-2012, 12:59 PM   #35
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

Ryan is as good a pick as anyone being discussed. I don't see how his presence on the ticket is going to get any of the voters leaning towards Obama to reconsider Obama but who amongst the favorites was going to do that? The Right has become very uniform with no one swaying an iota from the hard right Tea Party standard. They may have to lose a few elections before they realize they need to do a better job of building a coalition if they're going to take the Presidency.
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Old 08-11-2012, 01:03 PM   #36
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

I live in California so you know Obama isn't going to spend a dime on advertising here. From what I know the Obama campaign has been blitzing Romney in TV ads and has outspent Romney by quite a bit so far. That would explain his lead in the polls now, but I wouldn't put much stake on these polls because voters don't start paying attention until after the Republican/Democratic conventions.
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Old 08-11-2012, 01:10 PM   #37
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

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Originally Posted by Real Men Wear Green
Ryan is as good a pick as anyone being discussed. I don't see how his presence on the ticket is going to get any of the voters leaning towards Obama to reconsider Obama but who amongst the favorites was going to do that? The Right has become very uniform with no one swaying an iota from the hard right Tea Party standard. They may have to lose a few elections before they realize they need to do a better job of building a coalition if they're going to take the Presidency.
No he's not. He's alienating a huge group of people. Ryan is known as the guy that wants to destroy medicaid/medicare, as it is right now I should say.. And old people are the ones that vote the most. THEN he has the audacity to also want to cut VA funds, right after we get out of one "war" and are still in Afghanistan? Ryan was probably the worst.

Rubio would have been better simply because he would have helped him carry a swing state, as long as Rubio kept his mouth closed.

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Old 08-11-2012, 01:15 PM   #38
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

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Originally Posted by KevinNYC
The Romney strategy is kind of baffling. Paul Ryan's claim to fame and the reason for his reputation is the budget plan he has been pushing. Look at this talking point that the Romney gave out to reporters





We think the guy will make the best VP, but we reject the one thing he is known for? How is that going to work?
I'm pretty sure he was more or less forced to choose Paul, so he could rally the Tea Party/republican party. Since a lot still have their doubts over Romney being a "true republican"

And Paul fits that....pretty damn hardcore. I thought he needed another centralist-leaning guy like himself to win. Because I really don't think after Bush they can have a huge republican guy. It's why Perry lost IMO.

Also this article is interesting, especially the part about the economy. And Ryan's philosophies.
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Old 08-11-2012, 01:36 PM   #39
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

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Originally Posted by Rose
No he's not. He's alienating a huge group of people. Ryan is known as the guy that wants to destroy medicaid/medicare, as it is right now I should say.. And old people are the ones that vote the most. THEN he has the audacity to also want to cut VA funds, right after we get out of one "war" and are still in Afghanistan? Ryan was probably the worst.

Rubio would have been better simply because he would have helped him carry a swing state, as long as Rubio kept his mouth closed.
The Republican party as a whole is going after Medicare/caid, that's one of a number of programs that would have to be slashed to fund their budget cuts. Ryan is one of the leaders in this but they all want to do the same thing.

Rubio can't "keep his mouth shut," if you're running on a Presidential ticket you're going to have to face the public.
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Old 08-11-2012, 01:45 PM   #40
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

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Originally Posted by General
I live in California so you know Obama isn't going to spend a dime on advertising here. From what I know the Obama campaign has been blitzing Romney in TV ads and has outspent Romney by quite a bit so far.

This isn't really true. Because of the anti-Obama third party advertising makes up the difference. If you add up the dollars spent, it's pretty even (and the Romney camp knows this, so it affects how they spend their money.
Quote:
The Obama campaign has laid out nearly $125 million on broadcast and cable TV spots so far and has reserved millions more for August and the fall. Other than $7.5 million spent on national ads, almost all the money has gone into the nine critical states.
The Romney campaign has spent just $45 million on television ads, but several conservative-leaning independent groups helped the candidate to match and at times exceed the Obama team's advertising efforts.
Leading the way are American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS, both linked to Karl Rove, President George W. Bush's longtime political adviser. American Crossroads has spent about $50 million on ads in the swing states, while Crossroads GPS, which does not have to disclose its donors, has spent more than $55 million.
A third group, Restore Our Future, has spent about $20 million in the key general election battlegrounds after helping bury Romney's primary Republican rivals with negative ads during the nomination fight. This group was formed by several former top Romney advisers.
Americans for Prosperity, formed by the conservative billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, has spent over $15 million in swing states and purchased $25 million more to run from the coming week into early September. It's spent a more broadly than the others, buying advertising time in Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin in addition to the nine major swing states.

Also I don't think this applies this year either.

Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by General
That would explain his lead in the polls now, but I wouldn't put much stake on these polls because voters don't start paying attention until after the Republican/Democratic conventions.

They are finding less and less undecided voters at this stage in the campaign than previous elections. Voter preference is more stable in this election that in other ones.
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Old 08-11-2012, 01:55 PM   #41
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

Ryan is a VP that will convince Republicans that he is "conservative" enough since many Repub voters don't trust Romney as a true conservative. I don't think Paul Ryan is a blow hard that doesn't really know what he is talking about but at least he has some star power.
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Old 08-11-2012, 02:12 PM   #42
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

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Originally Posted by Real Men Wear Green
Ryan is as good a pick as anyone being discussed. I

538 had a really interesting post on this the other day.

538 was started by a guy who previously was a Moneyball sabermetrician in baseball and brought that type of statistical analysis to politics and has some very good results with it. He tested his model with 14 potential VPs and then ran 50,000 simulations of the election under trial conditions. Basically he feels Ryan is the close to the bottom of the list in terms of helping Mitt win and that Rob Portman would have given him a better chance to win Ohio and since that is a large state




and 538 just put a post in reaction to the Romney pick

Quote:
When is it rational to take a big risk?

When the status quo wasn’t proceeding in a way that you felt was favorable. When you have less to lose. When you needed — pardon the cliché, but it’s appropriate here — a “game change”.

When a prudent candidate like Mitt Romney picks someone like Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin as his running mate, it suggests that he felt he held a losing position against President Obama. The theme that Mr. Romney’s campaign has emphasized for months and months — that the president has failed as an economic leader — may have persuaded 47 or 48 or 49 percent of voters to vote for him, he seems to have concluded. But not 50.1 percent of them, and not enough for Mr. Romney to secure 270 electoral votes.

Last edited by KevinNYC : 08-11-2012 at 02:21 PM.
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Old 08-11-2012, 02:12 PM   #43
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

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Originally Posted by Jailblazers7
Ryan is a VP that will convince Republicans that he is "conservative" enough since many Repub voters don't trust Romney as a true conservative. I don't think Paul Ryan is a blow hard that doesn't really know what he is talking about but at least he has some star power.

Don't think? Or do think?
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Old 08-11-2012, 03:25 PM   #44
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

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Originally Posted by KevinNYC
Don't think? Or do think?

Oops, I meant do think.
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Old 08-11-2012, 05:14 PM   #45
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Default Re: Vice Presidential Pick and the STATE of the race

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Originally Posted by Real Men Wear Green
The Republican party as a whole is going after Medicare/caid, that's one of a number of programs that would have to be slashed to fund their budget cuts. Ryan is one of the leaders in this but they all want to do the same thing.

Rubio can't "keep his mouth shut," if you're running on a Presidential ticket you're going to have to face the public.
Ah that's a good point, I didn't think about that. But he has been the most vocal about it. And is pretty much labeled as the key guy in that, at least from what I know.

And good point.
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