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Old 10-05-2012, 05:53 PM   #46
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

What about non-conservatives that have been saying the same thing for years? The unemployment numbers are useless when most of our qualified and hardworking family members are still without jobs, and not collecting UI benefits to sway the statistic. Get the politics out of your asses and get real. The unemployment number is far from accurate.
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Old 10-05-2012, 08:55 PM   #47
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Godzuki
considering its the same numbers they use to attack Obama, its laughable how now they're flawed numbers
Nice
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Old 10-05-2012, 10:22 PM   #48
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

Quote:
In the most recent household survey, the biggest hiring gains came in the form of 582,000 new part-time jobs in September. Part of that number can be explained by young workers, ages 16 to 24. The data show this age group saw a huge pickup in jobs in September, due almost entirely to seasonal adjustments by the Labor Department.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/05/news...html?hpt=hp_t1
It was manipulation by the BLS to smooth out seasonal swings. They added a standard correction when those students never had said jobs to begin with.
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Old 10-05-2012, 11:18 PM   #49
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

why didnt obama make it so that everybody has jobs? worst president ever
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Old 10-06-2012, 12:27 AM   #50
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by shlver
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/05/news...html?hpt=hp_t1
It was manipulation by the BLS to smooth out seasonal swings. They added a standard correction when those students never had said jobs to begin with.


Do you have any evidence for the bolded part? The article doesn't say that.

Also are you saying they did some thing different this year? Lots of part time jobs in September is not usual. People freaking out about it is. 2010 was pretty bad year for jobs and September 2010 had just 3,000 less part time jobs than last year.

Quote:
The numbers say they had jobs increased by about 800,000. That seems high, but itís counting 582,000 who say they got part-time jobs.
Thereís precedent for this. As Daniel Indiviglio notes, part-time jobs increased by 579,000 in September 2010 and by 483,000 in September 2011. It might simply be seasonal hiring.
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Old 10-06-2012, 12:29 AM   #51
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

I normally want the jobs number to improve but this is a pyrrhic victory if the jobs number goes down and causes Obama to win. It may be nice to have a job if the government offers you one but DONT TAKE IT if you care about the long term. dont let them fudge the numbers and elect a guy whose trying to tear the country apart from the top. you may like being employed for 2 months until election but think longterm, it will cost the country and your children and grandchildren dearly.
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Old 10-06-2012, 12:33 AM   #52
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by demons2005
I normally want the jobs number to improve but this is a pyrrhic victory if the jobs number goes down and causes Obama to win.

And tell us the truth, you've felt this way since January 2009?
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Old 10-06-2012, 12:47 AM   #53
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
Do you have any evidence for the bolded part? The article doesn't say that.

Also are you saying they did some thing different this year? Lots of part time jobs in September is not usual. People freaking out about it is. 2010 was pretty bad year for jobs and September 2010 had just 3,000 less part time jobs than last year.
No I don't. September is when school starts and students quit their jobs, so I speculated that the BLS counteracted what historically happens with seasonal adjustment. I may be wrong though.
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Old 10-06-2012, 12:51 AM   #54
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

the crazy thing is that employment will likely improve even more in the short term, given that unemployment is always strongest during the holidays. people gotta sell and mail all the iphones, ipods and ipads to each other.

i would bet the farm that there is another supposed net gain in "jobs" next month
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Old 10-06-2012, 01:17 AM   #55
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

The economy looked pretty solid in 2007, even 2008 to most people. 2008 the housing bubble collapsed, and suddenly it was the end of the world.

This is the problem with looking at these statistics/stock market/etc to judge the economy. These are just surface numbers. You have to look at the foundation that the economy is built on.

Our economy right now is built on the Federal Reserve buying bonds and manipulating interest rates. Fact.

And it is my opinion that not only is the bond market a bubble, but the entire government itself is a bubble. We have way more government than is actually desired/sustainable, because the Fed has become so out of control with its license to print.

When these bubbles pop, it won't matter that the unemployment rate dropped .7 percent in October 2012. It won't matter that the stock market looked good for a random week here or there. Look at the foundation that the house is built on, not how stylish the paint job is.
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Old 10-06-2012, 01:22 AM   #56
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

Well we'll know more in the next few days. Somethings wrong here, the numbers are contradictory to what even Democratic economists were predicting earlier this week.

Greatest hiring period since the early 1980's? Yeah sure
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Old 10-06-2012, 01:48 AM   #57
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by shlver
No I don't. September is when school starts and students quit their jobs, so I speculated that the BLS counteracted what historically happens with seasonal adjustment. I may be wrong though.

I don't know what causes this either, but I suspect the abundance of part time jobs has to do with the rush of college students back to college towns.

They need a part time while they go to class and the local businesses need more staff.

I'm thinking of a place like Penn Sate.
Quote:
The city is a very small city that has three populations: 40,000 people in Summer, 80,000 when the university is on, and 120,000 during football weekends.

Last edited by KevinNYC : 10-06-2012 at 01:52 AM.
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Old 10-06-2012, 01:53 AM   #58
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

After looking at the data, it does look like they did something different this year.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/arch...t_10072011.pdf
The same month, September 2011, the economy added 400k jobs compared to the 900k jobs during last month's report. A difference in 500k jobs only yields a difference in 40k jobs between 103k gain in 2011 and 140k gain in 2012. they did use a massively different seasonal adjustment.
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Old 10-06-2012, 02:00 AM   #59
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
I don't know what causes this either, but I suspect the abundance of part time jobs has to do with the rush of college students back to college towns.

They need a part time while they go to class and the local businesses need more staff.

I'm thinking of a place like Penn Sate.
Not sure either as the BLS refuses to reveal how they seasonally adjust numbers, but a .3% drop in unemployment rate is unlikely and I expect a revision.
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Old 10-06-2012, 02:29 AM   #60
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Default Re: Unemployment Drops Below 8%, Conservatives Cry Conspiracy

I think there is something going with the economy that is more positive than recent history.

Car Sales are at a 4 year high. Highest rate of car sales since Feb 2008.

Housing sales in July were the highest in 2 years.

The Dow Jones just hit a 5 year high.

The Nasdaq hit a 12 year high last month.

There seems to be movement going on.
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