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Old 10-15-2012, 04:37 PM   #76
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

I think Kobe will shoot 45-47%.

I see his shot attempts decreasing from 23 FGA to 20 FGA over the season, and the number of shots made per game rounding out somewhere between 9 and 9.4.

His sometimes poor shot selection based on his estimation of his shooting ability (which, though great, is obviously less so now with his age) will persist as Kobe's stubbornness is second to none. However it will be less reflected in his game and production as Kobe has already showed a willingness to allow Nash to find him easier shots (per the two preseason games the two have played together, and the interviews he has given regarding his altered role).

Also, similar to 2004 when Kobe willingly decreased his shot attempts by 5 (could be slightly more or slightly less) field goals in an effort to properly acclimate the Lakers new talent, I see him shooting less this season - by design and consequence.

Lastly, last year Kobe's FG% dipped below his career average mostly due to the inbalance within the "system" Mike Brown was imploring. Objective observers will quickly recall how increasingly often the Lakers players turned to Kobe as a bailout, throwing him the basketball with less than 6 seconds on the shot clock as a result of their offensive sets breaking apart mid-execution. At 23, Kobe would have no problem creating off the dribble, driving pass his opponent or rising for a jump shot. However at 33, an injured wrist, and popiscle sticks for fingers, Kobe is less productive playing "hero-ball," as it's just too difficult for any player in his mid 30s to be expected to play 1 on 5 with less than 8 seconds left on the clock every 5 times down the court. With the addition of Nash, and the newly added dynamics of a pick and roll offense, Kobe should see less instances of bail-out basketball, which will inherently improve his shooting efficiency.

In all, with the additions of Nash and Howard and decreased possessions as the sole focal point of teams' defenses, an older Kobe should be back around his career average, if not slightly higher.

Just my prognosis
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Old 10-15-2012, 04:59 PM   #77
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

Quote:
Originally Posted by NLZ
Duncan 50% career and he's best PF ever?

FG %

You guys are hilarious with your FG % comments, seriously it doesn't matter.
There's like 15 active players with higher career FG % than Duncan yet it doesn't mean a single thing. James Harden shot higher % last season than Kobe ever did, doesn't mean anything. Deron Williams shot what, 35% last 2 seasons combined with the Nets? Apparently he's useless..

Good point. Though efficiency is highly important, it has been used much more commonly by Kobe and Iverson detractors to discredit their scoring prowess than it ever was in the 80s and 90s. Extremely similar to how this whole notion of "winning as the man" became the calling cry of Jordan fans and those whom dislike Kobe alike when the Lakers won three rings and Kobe's elite performances garnered media comparisons to MJ. I almost never heard that argument used in relation to Magic and Kareem in the 80s for instance, as it was conceived that a productive player's impact was highly valued for a championship team. But we as fans got sucked into the individualistic perceptive analysis of teams after the Jordan-era, and thus became prone to using it as a definitive measuring stick of a player's greatness, instead of a contextual one.

Anyway, like you said, efficiency is at times over-valued. It's all in context. Is the player's shooting negatively impacting the team's concepts? Or, is the shooting well within the scope of successful operation for the team?
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Old 10-15-2012, 05:21 PM   #78
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackVVaves
Good point. Though efficiency is highly important, it has been used much more commonly by Kobe and Iverson detractors to discredit their scoring prowess than it ever was in the 80s and 90s. Extremely similar to how this whole notion of "winning as the man" became the calling cry of Jordan fans and those whom dislike Kobe alike when the Lakers won three rings and Kobe's elite performances garnered media comparisons to MJ. I almost never heard that argument used in relation to Magic and Kareem in the 80s for instance, as it was conceived that a productive player's impact was highly valued for a championship team. But we as fans got sucked into the individualistic perceptive analysis of teams after the Jordan-era, and thus became prone to using it as a definitive measuring stick of a player's greatness, instead of a contextual one.

Anyway, like you said, efficiency is at times over-valued. It's all in context. Is the player's shooting negatively impacting the team's concepts? Or, is the shooting well within the scope of successful operation for the team?

Efficiency matters. Kobe isn't the inefficient player people make him out to be though.

Even Phil Jackson used fg% to end on when asked to compare the differences between mj and Kobe.
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Old 10-15-2012, 05:37 PM   #79
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cali Syndicate
Efficiency matters. Kobe isn't the inefficient player people make him out to be though.

Even Phil Jackson used fg% to end on when asked to compare the differences between mj and Kobe.

Oh, I never said it doesn't. I said it's overused as a measuring stick for selective great players, instead of a contextual facet of assessment of their game.

For instance, saying Duncan wasn't all that great of a player because he only shot 50% as a big for his career would be an erroneous way to perceive what Duncan brought to the table on offense.
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Old 10-15-2012, 05:42 PM   #80
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackVVaves
Oh, I never said it doesn't. I said it's overused as a measuring stick for selective great players, instead of a contextual facet of assessment of their game.

For instance, saying Duncan wasn't all that great of a player because he only shot 50% as a big for his career would be an erroneous way to perceive what Duncan brought to the table on offense.

Who says that? WTF?
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Old 10-15-2012, 05:53 PM   #81
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

Kobe's getting a lot of open looks from Nash in the little time they've played together, it will only increase when Dwight replaces Sacre. He had a very good catch and shoot % last season. Stamina will also play a role. He should have more energy throughout games since he won't be bringing the ball up and playmaking as much. Shouldn't be isolating as much either. I'll say his efficiency increases for sure from last season, though I don't know what his FG% would be because he could be taking/making more 3s.
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Old 10-15-2012, 06:01 PM   #82
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

Quote:
Originally Posted by kuniva_dAMiGhTy
Who says that? WTF?

Thought I typed "offensive player"

Auto-text
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Old 10-15-2012, 07:35 PM   #83
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

LMFAO @ KObe stans trying to downplay FG% and eff
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Old 10-15-2012, 08:29 PM   #84
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

23ppg at 49% on a reduced number of shots in a reduced 1b role with Howard. Nash running the show will allow Kobe to play off ball and get easy backdoor cuts to the basket and open 15 footers when Howard is double.

Not to mention Pau drawing defensive attention.

Of course this only works if Kobe is willing to accept a 1b role to Howard.


I hope Kobe changes his game to a more efficient off the ball role using open spotshots and cuts to the basket.

His basketball IQ can help him remain effective scoring if he chooses to use it and ditch the isos and contested threes.

I can't wait for this new version if it ever materializes.

Last edited by upside24 : 10-15-2012 at 08:33 PM.
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Old 10-15-2012, 09:51 PM   #85
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Default Re: Predict Kobe's FG% this year

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackVVaves
I think Kobe will shoot 45-47%.

I see his shot attempts decreasing from 23 FGA to 20 FGA over the season, and the number of shots made per game rounding out somewhere between 9 and 9.4.

His sometimes poor shot selection based on his estimation of his shooting ability (which, though great, is obviously less so now with his age) will persist as Kobe's stubbornness is second to none. However it will be less reflected in his game and production as Kobe has already showed a willingness to allow Nash to find him easier shots (per the two preseason games the two have played together, and the interviews he has given regarding his altered role).

Also, similar to 2004 when Kobe willingly decreased his shot attempts by 5 (could be slightly more or slightly less) field goals in an effort to properly acclimate the Lakers new talent, I see him shooting less this season - by design and consequence.

Lastly, last year Kobe's FG% dipped below his career average mostly due to the inbalance within the "system" Mike Brown was imploring. Objective observers will quickly recall how increasingly often the Lakers players turned to Kobe as a bailout, throwing him the basketball with less than 6 seconds on the shot clock as a result of their offensive sets breaking apart mid-execution. At 23, Kobe would have no problem creating off the dribble, driving pass his opponent or rising for a jump shot. However at 33, an injured wrist, and popiscle sticks for fingers, Kobe is less productive playing "hero-ball," as it's just too difficult for any player in his mid 30s to be expected to play 1 on 5 with less than 8 seconds left on the clock every 5 times down the court. With the addition of Nash, and the newly added dynamics of a pick and roll offense, Kobe should see less instances of bail-out basketball, which will inherently improve his shooting efficiency.

In all, with the additions of Nash and Howard and decreased possessions as the sole focal point of teams' defenses, an older Kobe should be back around his career average, if not slightly higher.

Just my prognosis
Well done.
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