Message Board Basketball Forum - InsideHoops

Go Back   Message Board Basketball Forum - InsideHoops > InsideHoops Main Basketball Forums > NBA Forum

NBA Forum NBA Message Board - NBA Fan Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 10-22-2012, 07:31 PM   #1
Hoiids
Decent playground baller
 
Hoiids's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: South Beach
Posts: 388
Default Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...ime-nba-champs
Quote:
For some, the natural instinct last June was to slap an asterisk on the Miami Heat's NBA championship. After all, it came in a lockout-shortened 66-game campaign, plus LeBron James and company didn't defeat one of the league's traditional glamour franchises -- namely, the Los Angeles Lakers -- in the Finals. In fact, at one point they were in a 2-1 hole against the Roy Hibbert-led Indiana Pacers, and also were pushed to the brink of elimination by the ancient Boston Celtics (an ill-timed injury to Chris Bosh didn't help in either regard). Their 16-7 record along the way to the title ranked only 40th out of the NBA's 63 all-time champions.

By most measures, then, the 2012 Heat were hardly among the most dominating title-winners in league history. Yet, at the same time, they might have been right up there with the most talented champs ever.

A team's inherent talent is, obviously, impossible to truly measure. But we can get a decent idea of how good a team was "on paper" by looking at the types of players on their roster, and how old those players were.

For instance, as a general rule NBA players peak around age 26, so a roster made up of All-Star or Hall of Fame-caliber players around that age would have to be considered an extremely talented team, regardless of how they actually played on the court. Meanwhile, another team made up of very young players, very old players, and/or players who didn't have especially good overall careers must be viewed as being less talented, even if they outperformed the former team when it came time to play the games.

Talent doesn't always lead to postseason success, of course, as anyone who watched the 2004 Dallas Mavericks can attest. That team's top seven playoff minute-earners included two surefire future Hall of Famers in their respective primes (25-year-old Dirk Nowitzki and 29-year-old Steve Nash), three more prime All-Stars (30-year-old Michael Finley, 27-year-olds Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison), and two 23-year-old future serviceable pros (Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels). On paper, that's a formidable group of players. In reality, it's simply a team that lost a five-game first-round series to the Sacramento Kings.

So it's definitely not a given that on-paper talent automatically equals a championship-caliber team. But for what it's worth, we can try to calculate how theoretically good each team in NBA history should have been based on the amount of talent on hand. The stat we're using here is Basketball-Reference's Win Shares, which are calculated going back to 1947 and should serve our overall purpose of separating good players from average ones, and average ones from scrubs. The exact order of players isn't as important here as it is to sort them into large bins of general quality.
How it's calculated

At any rate, the first step is to determine how "good" a player's career was, maintaining the delicate balance between career totals and peak value. To this end, I used Doug Drinen's method for weighting seasons, which is simply to add 100 percent of the player's best season, plus 95 percent of his second-best season, plus 90 percent of his third-best season, and so forth. Under this methodology, the all-time leader is Wilt Chamberlain (185), followed by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (174) and Michael Jordan (159), so it generally does a decent job of putting the best players at the top of the list.

For active players, however, we can't use their current weighted career value, because the book isn't completely written on their careers. Because of this, it's necessary to predict what their end-of-career weighted value will be from their age and current progress, and when we do this, the active leaders are LeBron James (164), Nowitzki (134), Kevin Garnett (133), Chris Paul (133), Tim Duncan (130), and Kobe Bryant (123). Again, the specific order can be arguable, but the main goal is to get general values that represent the overall quality of a player's career.

Heat measure up

Once we have a list of weighted career values for all players, the final step is to determine how good a player of a given quality should be at a given age, and then add those up for the regular players on a given team's roster. We can come up with an estimate of this for every player using a regression formula, and going back to the 2004 Mavericks we would see a top seven of Nowitzki (expected value of 14), Nash (11), Jamison (8), Finley (7), Walker (5), Howard (4), and Daniels (2), for a total of 51; weighted by postseason minutes, that team had an average expected value of 7.5, both of which ranked among the highest ever by a team that didn't win the championship.
Best NBA Champs "On Paper"
TEAM Top 7 Rk Wgtd Avg Rk
1. 1971 Milwaukee Bucks 56 1 8.4 1
2. 1984 Boston Celtics 54 3 8.1 3
3. 2012 Miami Heat 56 1 7.8 7
4. 1991 Chicago Bulls 52 5 8.1 4
5. 1992 Chicago Bulls 52 5 8.0 5
6. 1982 Los Angeles Lakers 54 3 7.7 8
6. 1967 Philadelphia 76ers 51 9 8.2 2
8. 1968 Boston Celtics 52 5 7.7 9
9. 1993 Chicago Bulls 51 9 7.8 6
10. 1961 Boston Celtics 52 5 7.4 13
11. 1963 Boston Celtics 51 9 7.5 10
12. 1988 Los Angeles Lakers 51 9 7.4 12
13. 1987 Los Angeles Lakers 51 9 7.2 17
13. 1964 Boston Celtics 50 15 7.4 11
15. 1981 Boston Celtics 51 9 7.2 20
16. 1965 Boston Celtics 48 18 7.3 15
17. 1959 Boston Celtics 50 15 7.1 21
17. 1986 Boston Celtics 47 20 7.2 16
19. 2008 Boston Celtics 48 18 7.1 22
20. 1962 Boston Celtics 45 27 7.3 14
21. 1966 Boston Celtics 47 20 7.1 23
21. 1960 Boston Celtics 46 24 7.2 19
23. 1985 Los Angeles Lakers 50 15 6.6 32
23. 1983 Philadelphia 76ers 47 20 7.0 27
25. 2004 Detroit Pistons 46 24 7.0 24
26. 1980 Los Angeles Lakers 45 27 7.0 25
27. 2010 Los Angeles Lakers 46 24 6.7 29
27. 2002 Los Angeles Lakers 45 27 7.0 26
29. 1972 Los Angeles Lakers 44 36 7.2 18
30. 2001 Los Angeles Lakers 45 27 7.0 28
31. 1989 Detroit Pistons 47 20 6.4 36
32. 1957 Boston Celtics 45 27 6.6 30
33. 1996 Chicago Bulls 45 27 6.6 33
34. 2009 Los Angeles Lakers 45 27 6.5 35
35. 2011 Dallas Mavericks 45 27 6.4 37
36. 1995 Houston Rockets 45 27 6.3 38
37. 1969 Boston Celtics 43 42 6.6 31
38. 2006 Miami Heat 44 36 6.2 39
39. 2003 San Antonio Spurs 44 36 6.2 41
40. 1973 New York Knicks 44 36 6.1 42
41. 1994 Houston Rockets 44 36 6.1 43
42. 2000 Los Angeles Lakers 41 47 6.6 34
43. 2005 San Antonio Spurs 43 42 6.2 40
44. 1958 St. Louis Hawks 44 36 5.8 49
45. 1970 New York Knicks 43 42 6.1 45
46. 1974 Boston Celtics 42 45 6.0 46
46. 1990 Detroit Pistons 41 47 6.1 44
48. 1997 Chicago Bulls 40 49 5.9 47
49. 1954 Minneapolis Lakers 42 45 5.7 53
50. 1956 Philadelphia Warriors 38 52 5.8 48
51. 1953 Minneapolis Lakers 39 50 5.7 51
52. 1952 Minneapolis Lakers 38 52 5.8 50
53. 2007 San Antonio Spurs 39 50 5.6 54
54. 1999 San Antonio Spurs 37 54 5.7 52
55. 1998 Chicago Bulls 37 54 5.5 55
56. 1955 Syracuse Nationals 37 54 5.2 56
57. 1979 Seattle Supersonics 37 54 5.2 57
58. 1978 Washington Bullets 34 58 4.9 58
59. 1975 Golden State Warriors 34 58 4.8 60
60. 1976 Boston Celtics 33 60 4.9 59
61. 1977 Portland Trail Blazers 27 61 3.9 61

But back to the Heat. Last year, Miami's rotation featured James at age 27 (expected value of 18), Chris Bosh at 27 (11) and a 30-year-old Dwyane Wade (10), plus 25-year-old Mario Chalmers (5) and three solid players over the age of 30 in Shane Battier (4), Udonis Haslem (4), and Mike Miller (4). In total, their top seven added up to 56 points of expected value, which is actually tied with the 1971 Milwaukee Bucks for the best of any NBA champ.

That '71 Bucks team boasted 23-year-olds Abdul-Jabbar (19 expected value) and Bob Dandridge (7), plus the still-dangerous 32-year-old legend Oscar Robertson (13) and a trio of solid players in Jon McGlocklin (5), Lucius Allen (5), and Bob Boozer (4). They lost only twice all postseason and put together one of the most dominant playoff runs in league history, so tying that team puts the 2012 Heat are in pretty good company. And in addition to their impressive top seven, the minute-weighted average for Miami's entire playoff roster was 7.8, which ranked seventh behind only the 1971 Bucks, 1967 76ers, 1984 Celtics, and the 1991/'92/'93 Bulls.

In other words, by this measure of aggregate team talent at least, the 2012 Miami Heat were in fact one of the best teams on paper ever to win an NBA title.

That wouldn't have meant much if they didn't fulfill their potential and actually win the 16 playoff games required to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy -- after all, the 2011 Finals-losing version of the Heat was arguably even more talented, with a minute-weighted expected value average of 8.5 -- but it is a feather in the cap for a team that, at first glance, appears to be one of the more mediocre NBA champs ever.



Hoiids is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2012, 07:39 PM   #2
Rubio2Gasol
College star
 
Rubio2Gasol's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3,932
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

Lock this guy in a mental facility and throw away the key.
Rubio2Gasol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2012, 07:42 PM   #3
BlackVVaves
NBA lottery pick
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,979
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

ESPN becomes more and more like Bleacher Report everyday
BlackVVaves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2012, 07:43 PM   #4
blacknapalm
spider 2 y banana
 
blacknapalm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 7,304
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

87 lakers 14th, 86 boston 17th, 01 lakers 30th, 03 spurs 39th =
blacknapalm is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2012, 08:23 PM   #5
rodman91
Bulls
 
rodman91's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 4,240
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

rodman91 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2012, 08:26 PM   #6
senelcoolidge
College star
 
senelcoolidge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: At home
Posts: 4,048
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

Some people have short memories. What about the 86 Celtics. 67 76er's. 71 Bucks I see they kept at #1. 96 Bulls. 72 Lakers. etc etc etc.
senelcoolidge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2012, 11:57 PM   #7
Psileas
NBA lottery pick
 
Psileas's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Great!
Posts: 5,587
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

I'm not saying this method is meaningful, but the author has already mentioned that the list doesn't intend to rank the greatest/most dominant champions, but the most talented teams, based on bbr's win shares and some (flawed) perception of adding up steadily decreasing values of seasons for each player. It's meaningless, since it assumes that each player's "seasonal value" curve, starting from the best and moving on, would be the same, which is not true. Karl Malone's would seem like a straight line at times, while Bill Walton's would look like a cliff...
Psileas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2012, 12:02 AM   #8
Freedom Kid7
Lazy Bulls fan
 
Freedom Kid7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Tending the Fire
Posts: 1,190
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

Welcome to ESPN, where the 06 Heat who had no business winning is somehow better than the Bad Boy Pistons, and the 86 Celtics aren't even a top 5 team.

Seriously, this is a pitiful list.
Freedom Kid7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2012, 12:07 AM   #9
Pushxx
Pushxx
 
Pushxx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Cape Cod, MA
Posts: 3,431
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

Take a shit on a piece of paper and smear it on the wall, and that will show the top 10 championships teams of all time.

Oh look, the 2012 Heat came out as #3!!!! TOTALLY LEGIT
Pushxx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2012, 12:08 AM   #10
Dictator
Insidehoops Mafia ę
 
Dictator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 3,867
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

Dictator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2012, 12:15 AM   #11
maybeshewill13
**** u Thabo u ****
 
maybeshewill13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: ═sjaki
Posts: 7,004
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

My jimmies.. they've been rustled.
maybeshewill13 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2012, 12:18 AM   #12
Miller for 3
Local High School Star
 
Miller for 3's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,100
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

A lockout team that played 8 on 5 against injury ridden D league teams is the 3rd best team ever. seems legit
Miller for 3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2012, 12:23 AM   #13
KOBE143
In GawdBe We Trust
 
KOBE143's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: KB Center
Posts: 2,198
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

2009 Lakers at 34.. Should have been top 5 easily.. What a joke list..
KOBE143 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2012, 12:24 AM   #14
G-train
3-time NBA All-Star
 
G-train's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 10,964
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

Did anyone read the article?
G-train is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2012, 01:26 AM   #15
longtime lurker
NBA sixth man of the year
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 7,846
Default Re: Paine: Heat No. 3 among all-time champs

And let the overrating and overhyping begin. Has there ever been a more forced superstar than Lebron? Its like the media so desperately wants to put him on that GOAT level that they'll make up the most asanine claims to support their adgenda.
longtime lurker is offline   Reply With Quote
This NBA Basketball News Website Sponsored by:
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:55 AM.




NBA Basketball Forum Key Links:
InsideHoops Home
NBA Rumors
Basketball Blog
NBA Daily Recaps
NBA Videos
Fantasy Basketball
NBA Mock Draft
NBA Free Agents
All-Star Weekend
---
High School Basketball
Streetball
---
InsideHoops Twitter
Search Our Site













Powered by vBulletin Version 3.5.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd. Terms of Use/Service | Privacy Policy