The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

[IcanzIIravor]

Originally Posted by Jailblazers7

I wish Chapelle was still doing he show so he could do a sketch of that moment.

Black Romney skit would have been funny.

[longhornfan1234]

Dirty libs.

http://www.floridapoliticalpress.com...g-eligibility/

[InspiredLebowski]

Originally Posted by longhornfan1234

Dirty libs.

http://www.floridapoliticalpress.com...g-eligibility/

They're apparently postmarked from Seattle. Which is weird. Not that I often check the postmark on letters I get, but a pretty obvious tip off.

[KevinNYC]

Just found this feature on 538 where in his "competive states tool" you can click more and see all the polls going back months. Also if you look on the site, there is a little graphic that tells you how much weight 538 gives to the poll. (longhorn fan, this is basically the answer to the question you asked a while back.) Some of the weights are way under 1.0 and some are over. I saw one poll with a weight of 1.7 and I wondered why it was so high

This poll was conducted by telephone from Quinnipiac University's interviewing facility October 17-20, 2012. The number of Ohio likely voters interviewed is 1,548. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the sample could be plus or minus three percentage points.

So it was a pollster with a good rep and a large sample size and both landlines and cellphones. So as an experiment, I'm going to look at all polls for Ohio in the month of October where the poll has a high rep.

[InspiredLebowski]

I don't care when people use "retard" as an insult because really I somewhat feel the disabled are doing themselves a disservice when they claim it applies specifically to them. But that's a far other topic.

I disagree they he should take offense, but this is a pretty inspiring rebuttal to Ann Coulter's tweet calling Obama a retard. Written by a retard.

[KevinNYC]

So I took all the October polls in Ohio with a 538 weight of 1.00 or greater and this is the result

POLLS 538 WT. DATE MARGIN
SurveyUSA (1.18) 10/22 Obama +3.0
Quinnipiac (1.73) 10/20 Obama +5.0
Gravis Marketing (1.53) 10/19 Tie
Fox News (1.14) 10/18 Obama +3.0
SurveyUSA (1.00) 10/15 Obama +3.0
NBC/Marist (1.31) 10/9 Obama +6.0
SurveyUSA (1.34) 10/8 Obama +1.0
Pulse Opinion Research (1.00) Obama +1.0
We Ask America(1.07) 10/4 Romney +1.0
NBC/Marist (1.21) 10/1 Obama +8.0


So of the last 10 polls Nate Silver deemed the most worthy Obama is leading in all but 2.

[KevinNYC]

This is a good look at Silver's methodology because each individual poll gets its own weight. For example, Gravis Marketing had the second highest rated poll in October with 1.53, but it had another poll in October, that he only gave a weight of 0.18 to.

[DirtySanchez]

Originally Posted by Jailblazers7

I wish Chapelle was still doing he show so he could do a sketch of that moment.

Yup!!!!

[IcanzIIravor]

Originally Posted by longhornfan1234

Dirty libs.

http://www.floridapoliticalpress.com...g-eligibility/

Has to be someone with access to their voter registration or could be someone who picked an area that overwhelming votes red. Either way I hope they track down whoever is behind it and bring them up on charges.

[IcanzIIravor]

[Speculation on how Romney was able to get the support of the Log Cabin Republicans]

Romney’s secret promise to gay Repubs: I’ll pass major gay rights law

Secret Romney Pact With Gay Republicans

[UPDATE: At the bottom of this post I have an update from Bryan Fischer of the American Family Association, a lead religious right group. They not very happy with Uncle Mitt. They're demanding a "flat, empathic, unemphatic, unambiguous denial from Romney himself. Please clarify for us all, Governor. Bottom line: we still need a clear, unambiguous, no loophole denial from Gov. Romney that he will support ENDA as president."]

Oh, Mitty, there you go again.

Ben Adler reports in the Nation today the remarkable news that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney apparently secured the endorsement of the lead gay Republican group, the Log Cabin Republicans, by privately promising them that he would support passage of a major piece of gay rights legislation, the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA).
rainbow hands gay

Rainbow hands by Shutterstock.

It is currently legal under federal law, and in a number of states, to fire, not hire, and not promote someone because they’re gay or trans. ENDA bans that discrimination under federal law.

Romney has previously opposed ENDA, Paul Ryan previously supported it, then got beaten up by his own party and voted to kill it, and now refuses to say where he stands on the legislation.

Adler thought it odd that Log Cabin thought, per their statement endorsing Romney, that they could work with him to pass major gay rights legislation, so he called up Log Cabin’s executive director, R. Clark Cooper, to find out. Cooper, apparently, spilled the beans.

link

[longhornfan1234]

10/23 Polls (updated as I see them)

Ohio
Tie
Obama +3

NH
Romney +2

Conn
Obama +14

Mass
Obama +20

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[KevinNYC]

Originally Posted by IcanzIIravor

Has to be someone with access to their voter registration or could be someone who picked an area that overwhelming votes red. Either way I hope they track down whoever is behind it and bring them up on charges.

There's a lot ways to get this info without having accessing to thier voter registration. They could have bought a mailing list, looked up political donations online or saw if they drank Sam Adams.

Americans who most often drink Dos Equis are in the middle-of-the-road while drinkers of Heineken's flagship brand are strongly Democratic. Samuel Adams drinkers are strongly Republican, and more likely to vote....We've analyzed Scarborough Research data, which includes 200,000 interviews with American adults, to determine the politics of beer drinkers.

As the bubble chart shows, Dos Equis is a bipartisan brew - Republicans and Democrats both like to drink it. So Mr. Goldsmith's public foray into the 2012 race could alienate a large share of Dos Equis fans.

Ironically, this is in contrast to its corporate sister Heineken, which as it turns out is the most Democratic beer of all. On the other hand, Republicans love their Coors Light and favor Sam Adams, which is brewed just a few miles away from Romney campaign headquarters and whose namesake was an original tea partier.

[KevinNYC]

The Turks arrested a Tunisian in connection with the consulate attack in Libya.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2011132.html

A Tunisian man who was arrested in Turkey this month with reported links to the attack on a U.S. consulate in Libya has been returned to Tunisia and is facing terrorism charges, his lawyer said Wednesday.

Ali Harzi was repatriated to Tunisia on Oct. 11 by authorities in Turkey, and a judge issued his arrest warrant, lawyer Ouled Ali Anwar told The Associated Press. He said his client was told by a judge Tuesday that he has been charged with "membership of a terrorist organization in a time of peace in another country."

A person who saw Harzi's court dossier told The Associated Press that the file links him to the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi that left Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans dead.

He said Harzi is one of two Tunisians reportedly arrested Oct. 3 in Turkey when they tried to enter the country with false passports. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release the information. Harzi's alleged role in the attack is not clear.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...te-attack.html

Tunisia makes arrest in connection with Benghazi consulate attack
Tunisia has arrested a 28-year-old man reportedly linked to the US consulate attack in Libya which killed US Ambassador Christopher Stevens.

A spokesman for the country’s Interior Ministry announced that Ali Harzi, a Tunisian, was in custody but refused to elaborate on any details of the arrest.

[Droid101]

I guess being intelligent has a liberal bias.

[brantonli]

Originally Posted by longhornfan1234

10/23 Polls (updated as I see them)

Ohio
Tie
Obama +3

NH
Romney +2

Conn
Obama +14

Mass
Obama +20

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

While I haven't followed individual states closely, Mass is +20 Obama? LOL how did Romney ever win there?