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Old 10-23-2012, 01:32 AM   #1
Richesly
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Default Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's Oct. 29 NBA Preview. Subscribe today!

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EASTERN CONFERENCE




1. Miami Heat | Southeast: 1st


Conventional wisdom That banner in the rafters will announce that the King has shed his can't-win-the-big-one rep. His Big Three mates? Still plenty young enough. Yep, it's all going to plan -- and there's nothing any other team can do about it.

Actual wisdom Don't save a spot on the Biscayne Boulevard parade route just yet. The Heat might look stronger with the signings of D-stretching sharpshooters Ray Allen (career 40 percent from three) and Rashard Lewis (39 percent), but health and durability issues lurk. Dwyane Wade, Bosh, Mike Miller and Allen all had surgery or some significant rehab this offseason. And managing minutes, egos and title-or-bust expectations won't get easier for coach Erik Spoelstra. -- Michael Wallace
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 60.7-21.3
If LBJ has a PER of 31: 61-21 (1-seed)
If LBJ has a PER of 27: 55-27 (1-seed)






2. Atlanta Hawks | Southeast: 2nd


Conventional Wisdom Sure, by trading six-time All-Star Joe Johnson, new GM Danny Ferry tidied up the cap and readied the Hawks for a down-the-road free agent spree. Short term, though, the team has taken a big step back.

Actual wisdom Salary dump? What salary dump? Atlanta inked a cheaper high-scoring playmaker in Lou Williams. He and Jeff Teague will stay busy finding new hires Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow on the perimeter and Smith and a fully healed Al Horford (career 18.1 PER) in transition. All of those producers mean more points for the Hawks than their opponents -- and what some folks might consider a surprisingly high seed in the postseason. -- John Hollinger
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 50.5-31.5
If Horford plays 82 games: 52-30 (2-seed)
If Horford plays 11 games: 43-39 (8-seed)








3. New York Knicks | Atlantic: 1st


Conventional wisdom The Knicks have added a fantasy team of useful vets, making them as deep as anyone in the East -- and a lock to win their first playoff series since 2000.

Actual wisdom Like a recurring nightmare, New York has imported a few more shopworn names and crossed its fingers. Maybe the geezers help grab a couple of extra wins; more likely, they take turns propping each other up right before their hearts give out. Still, this dream actually will end differently if Carmelo and Amar'e figure out how to share the ball (the Knicks were outscored by almost four points per 100 possessions when the duo were on the court together last season). -- Bradford Doolittle
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 49.4-32.6
If Anthony shoots 49 percent: 53-29 (2-seed)
If Anthony shoots 43 percent: 48-34 (4-seed)






4. Boston Celtics | Atlantic: 2nd


Conventional wisdom Only a crazy person would pick a team that was old four years ago, then replaced Ray Allen with a sprinkle of has-beens and never-will-bes.

Actual wisdom Only a slightly less crazy person would bet against them. One of those replacements is seasoned gunner Jason Terry (career 38 percent 3-point shooter), and he'll likely jump-start that 25th-ranked offense. Also, last we checked, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce were still elite defenders -- tying career lows in defensive rating last season (94 and 99, respectively). Don't be fooled: A Big Three lives on in Beantown; now it just features a locked-in Rondo (career AST percent of 40). And it still matches up with any team. -- Henry Abbott
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 48.9-33.1
If Rondo has a TS percent of 54: 51-31 (2-seed)
If Rondo has a TS percent of 47: 47-35 (6-seed)






5. Philadelphia 76ers | Atlantic: 3rd


Conventional wisdom Andrew Bynum adds an interior presence (career ORtg: 116) to a team that barely can recall what it's like to have one. Last season's playoff run was surprising; this season's won't be.

Actual wisdom The Sixers seem to have all the answers: 1) a solid trio of bigs -- Bynum, Spencer Hawes and Lavoy Allen -- who can score and protect the paint; 2) a ripening young backcourt in Jrue Holiday and Turner; and 3) a team D that ranked third in 2011-12. Well, most of the answers anyway: They still haven't figured out how to hang with Miami. -- Chris Broussard
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 47.5-34.5
With new bigs (Bynum/Hawes/Turner): 48-34 (5-seed)
With old bigs (Hawes/Brand/Iguodala): 46-36 (6-seed)






6. Chicago Bulls | Central: 1st


Conventional wisdom The Bulls will struggle to stay afloat as they await the return of Derrick Rose, whose knee will keep him in street clothes for months.

Actual wisdom Hey, "they" got one right -- but for the wrong reasons. Rose is an A-lister for sure, but look it up: The Bulls were actually 18-9 last season without their MVP. The team was buoyed by the Bench Mob -- John Lucas III, Kyle Korver and Omer Asik, with Asik ranking in the 96th percentile in defensive points per possession. Problem is, all three were thrown overboard this summer. SOS. -- Tom Haberstroh
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 47-35
If Rose plays 30 games: 49-33 (4-seed)
If Rose misses entire season: 42-40 (8-seed)






7. Brooklyn Nets | Atlantic: 4th


Conventional wisdom The Nets appeared to remake their team, bringing in All-Star swingman Johnson and his 18.8 ppg to form a prolific backcourt with the newly re-signed Deron Williams.

Actual wisdom Almost landing Dwight Howard is not actually landing Dwight Howard. You could do worse than Brook Lopez as your Plan B, but unless the seven-footer finds the religion of the boards (6 rpg in '10-11), the Nets won't look as strong on the court as they do on paper. And on paper, anything less than a 7-seed should be viewed as failure. -- C.B.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 44.4-37.6
If Lopez averages 9 rpg: 46-36 (7-seed)
If Lopez averages 4 rpg: 41-41 (8-seed)






8. Indiana Pacers | Central: 2nd


Conventional wisdom After locking up the key players from last season's spunky run, the Pacers are poised to fill the gap at the top of the Eastern Conference caused by Derrick Rose's injury.

Actual wisdom Last season's starting five was dominant. Know what else it was? Improbably healthy. Paul George, David West, Granger, Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert played 1,000 minutes together -- or 253 more than any other five NBA teammates spent as a unit. Hope they all took it easy this summer. Indiana did little to overhaul its weak bench, so the starters will have to work overtime again. Counting on a repeat of a statistical anomaly is no way to game-plan. -- Beckley Mason
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 44.4-37.6
If Granger scores 25.8 ppg: 51-31 (2-seed)
If Granger scores 18.7 ppg: 46-36 (7-seed)






9. Toronto Raptors | Atlantic: 5th


Conventional wisdom The Raptors are deeper and stronger defensively than they've been in years, putting them in the mix for a bottom-half playoff spot.

Actual wisdom Deeper isn't enough. Lock up Bargnani and new point guard Kyle Lowry and who puts the ball in the hole? Toronto was 29th in offensive rating last year. There is, of course, vague hope in youth: Landry Fields, Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross will keep the Raptors in most games. But if they keep the team in the playoff hunt, it says more about the other conference also-rans than it does about this one. -- Tim Legler
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 40.6-41.4
If Lowry is the PG: 40-42 (9th in East)
If Jose Calderon is the PG: 37-45 (9th in East)






10. Milwaukee Bucks | Central: 3rd


Conventional wisdom The Bucks don't care; they've made the playoffs just seven times in 20 years. The fans don't care; they've stopped showing up. Why should anyone care? Well, Ellis is fun to watch.

Actual wisdom Ellis is fun to watch, but there's more to see in Milwaukee. Brandon Jennings (19.1 ppg, 5.5 apg) gives this team another Iverson-type live wire, and if F Ersan Ilyasova (career-high 20.5 PER in 2011-12) proves that last season wasn't a fluke (a previous PER high of 15.7), attention -- actual attention -- will have to be paid in Milwaukee. -- H.A.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 37.1-44.9
If Ellis shoots 53 percent: 43-39 (9th in East)
If Ellis shoots 42 percent: 36-46 (10th in East)






11. Cleveland Cavaliers | Central: 4th


Conventional wisdom They're too young. With 10 players with no more than two years of experience, the Cavs need another year before talk of the playoffs sounds like anything other than childish blather.

Actual wisdom These guys are growing up fast. He might be just 20, but last season's top rookie, Irving, played like he's been doing it for years: In crunch time, Irving shot 54 percent from the field, 67 percent from three and 89 percent from the line. Add budding star Tristan Thompson and dynamic first-year man Dion Waiters and the Cavs are much closer than you think. -- Brian Windhorst
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 29.5-52.5
If Irving gets 25/10: 35-47 (11th in East)
If Irving gets 19/5: 22-60 (14th in East)








Written by John Hollinger.
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Old 10-23-2012, 01:32 AM   #2
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 15 - MOST REASONABLE

12. Detroit Pistons | Central: 5th


Conventional wisdom The Pistons, who haven't won more than 30 games in a season since 2008-09, have mired themselves in a youth movement.

Actual wisdom Please don't shoot the hometown messenger, but it's true -- this rebuild could take some time. Take heart, Motor City: It'll be worth the wait. Big man Greg Monroe, with his 15/10 and 22 PER, is a franchise cornerstone. Sophomore PG Knight, who shot 38 percent from three, will push the tempo. And No. 9 pick Andre Drummond will team with Monroe to form a frontcourt tandem that someday might remind Pistons fans of those pesky Bad Boys. Someday. -- Jalen Rose
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 27.1-54.9
If Drummond averages 16 ppg and 12 rpg: 40-42 (9th in East)
If Drummond averages 8 ppg and 6 rpg: 29-53 (12th in East)






13. Washington Wizards | Southeast: 3rd


Conventional wisdom Purging bad attitudes and worse contracts has an upside, but it has left the Wizards with a raw roster (eight players with fewer than three years of experience). And Wall isn't ready to lead it.

Actual wisdom With vets Trevor Ariza and Nene flanking Emeka Okafor, personal responsibility has come to DC. The Wizards won eight of their final 10 last spring, with Wall shooting less, passing more and finishing as one of three players (CP3 and D-Will) to average 16/8. In an infinite universe, there are some worlds in which the Wizards actually make the playoffs. -- J.A. Adande
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 24.1-57.9
If Wall shoots 48 percent: 27-55 (12th in East)
If Wall shoots 42 percent: 24-58 (13th in East)






14. Orlando Magic | Southeast: 4th


Conventional wisdom With one finger snap (and many calls from the 213 area code; hello, is Dwight there?), the Magic conjured an impressive disappearing act. Poof! A contender goes up in a puff of smoke.

Actual wisdom Hard to disagree here. Until last season, Stan Van Gundy's team always boasted a top-five D and was among the NBA leaders in 3's, feats assumed to be mutually exclusive. Now O-Town is light the NBA's top defender, two snipers (Chris Duhon, Jason Richardson) and the coach who made it work. If the Magic escape the lottery, it won't be a neat trick. It'll be a miracle. -- B.M.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 23.5-58.5
If Howard were still the center: 35-47 (11th in East)
If Glen Davis plays center: 24-58 (14th in East)






15. Charlotte Bobcats | Southeast: 5th


Conventional wisdom After logging the NBA's worst winning percentage ever, the Bobcats have nowhere to go but up. And c'mon, Gerald Henderson was their best player last year, so how hard could that be?

Actual wisdom Pretty hard. The Bobcats were so much worse than every other team -- last in offensive and defensive rating -- that they're facing another year in the NBA's basement. At least plugging in rookie finisher Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and PG Ramon Sessions (and his career ORtg of 108) will nudge the bunch of slackers who averaged just 87 ppg last season. -- Marc Stein
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 16.5-65.5
If Kidd-Gilchrist averages 15 ppg, 6 rpg: 21-61 (15th in East)
If Kidd-Gilchrist averages 6 ppg, 4 rpg: 15-67 (15th in East)
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Old 10-23-2012, 08:44 AM   #3
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

I always find it amazing that people on Espn actually get paid for what they write.
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Old 10-23-2012, 12:58 PM   #4
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

The Hawks and Knicks before Boston?
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Old 10-23-2012, 01:25 PM   #5
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

Didn't realize Avery Bradley is a never-will-be.
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Old 10-23-2012, 01:53 PM   #6
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

ESPN should be banned from speaking about sports. Go talk about the weather or something similar. They might mess that up too. These ESPN writers are so stupid. They actually think people care what they say.
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Old 10-23-2012, 03:01 PM   #7
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wally450
Didn't realize Avery Bradley is a never-will-be.
If he can stay healthy he could be a damn good player. Sounds like someone wrote a drunken article imo.
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Old 10-23-2012, 03:32 PM   #8
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

Pacers at 8??????!!!!!!!!!?????????
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Old 10-23-2012, 03:40 PM   #9
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

There is nothing "conventional" about the standings you just posted.Horrible rankings.I am 100% sure that standings will not be even close beside miami
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Old 10-23-2012, 05:24 PM   #10
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

Indy's bench is pretty much entirely new...
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Old 10-23-2012, 05:25 PM   #11
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

Yeah, these predictions are reasonable up to about #2



lol
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Old 10-23-2012, 05:30 PM   #12
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

This is complete bullshlt. They're predicted the Nuggets to win the West.

and Lakers to end up 4th

Heres the link if anyone cares http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/85...-espn-magazine
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Old 10-23-2012, 05:32 PM   #13
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

is this satire or something? I mean seriously, this is completely ridiculous from anything other than bleacher report.
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Old 10-23-2012, 05:38 PM   #14
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

so they made up some stats for a specific player and ran simulations. seems worthwhile.
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Old 10-23-2012, 05:41 PM   #15
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Default Re: Eastern Conference Prediction Top 12 - MOST REASONABLE

The West is even worse. They predict LA to be in 4th and TWolves 3rd....
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