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Old 10-26-2012, 12:57 PM   #1
Clippersfan86
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Default ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

. This is what happens when you let stats get in the way of what your eyes see and things you can't measure. Faried above Aldridge? I think this guy is valuing fantasy sports above reality but is flat out ranking bigs for this season in this manner. Move Anderson down to around 9-10 or less and everybody else up a spot. Flip Aldridge for Faried.... let Davis play a freaking NBA game before declaring him the 7th best big in basketball.





http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...-big-barometer






The NBA has forever been known as a league of giants. In a general sense, that hasn't changed.

The average height for an American male adult is about 5-foot-10. In the NBA universe, that height is an aberration. According to Basketball-Reference.com, the average height in the league has rounded off at 6-foot-7 in each of the past 32 seasons. Just 25 players 5-foot-10 or under have appeared in a game during that span. What is the percentile rank of the height of a 6-foot-7 American male? Beats me. Every chart I could find cuts off at 6-foot-4, which in itself tells you something. These "bigs" represent just about the top 2-3 percent of all of us, but an unusual, yet still minuscule, portion of those people are playing professional basketball.

So yes, the NBA is a giant's league. But it might be getting smaller. The traditional big man has seen his importance reduced over the years, and a trio of trends point to this conclusion:

1. The advent of the 3-point line
2. The evolution of positionless lineups (i.e., the 2011-12 Miami Heat)
3. The NBA's crackdown on hand checking

And yet, NBA fans continue to be fascinated by the physical marvels and production of bigs. They are able to score and dominate a game and still play a crucial role in rim protection and rebounding.

Thus, we bring you The Big Man Barometer. Each week, we'll be tracking how big men are used across the league and measuring their production. Using NBAPET, my system for evaluating and tracking the league, we'll monitor the lineups coaches are using on a possession-by-possession basis and ranking the players in the "big" positions that we've always called center and power forward. And with the advent of "positionless" lineups, in any given week, some players might be "big" one week, and not the next. So the barometer will be fluid and could feature new names every week.

Our system will measure the production of players only when they play the 4 or 5, which means that LeBron James and any other small-ball candidate can slip into the rankings. The rankings will be based on each player's wins above replacement player (WARP) over the previous seven days while playing the 4 or 5, and will also incorporate a clutch factor using a basketball version of win probability added.

In addition to ranking the results of the past week, we'll also be projecting the next week going forward, which will be of interest to our fantasy-basketball-playing readers. These rankings will forecast weekly production based on quality of opponents and other scheduling factors.

Today, though, we'll keep it simple, more like a season preview. Using the SCHOENE projections from Pro Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, we'll rank the top 10 big men going into the season based on each player's base position. This will leave out James and other guys who are small in no other way but in an NBA context, but only for now. Then we'll spotlight three big guys who will be in action during the season's first two nights. The Big Man Barometer will run each Thursday.

So here are the projected top 10 big men for 2012-13:

1. Dwight Howard, Los Angeles Lakers (15.2 projected WARP)

Howard
The game's best big man is a traditional center with decidedly nontraditional athletic ability. Now Howard is in new environs and it will be fascinating to see the effect the Lakers' star-studded cast has on his numbers. He will also still be nursing his back, on which he underwent surgery this past offseason. But he has looked solid in preseason appearances.

2. Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves (14.2 projected WARP)

Love
In today's NBA, it's vital even in traditional lineups that one of your big men can knock down face-up jumpers. Love, of course, offers that with an excellent 3-point shot, plus the killer added value of premier offensive rebounding. This will probably be the only time we see Love on the barometer until after he heals from his hand injury in six to eight weeks.

3. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Hornets (13.8 projected WARP)

Anderson
Anderson's numbers have been tethered to Howard, and because of that, his projection is exaggerated. Still, in many ways Anderson has come to typify what coaches seek in a modern-day 4: 3-point shooting and defensive rebounding. However, it's left to be seen whether Anderson can do what he did in Orlando without Howard. Or was it that Anderson opened up the lane for Howard?

4. Andrew Bynum, Philadelphia 76ers (12.8 projected WARP)

Bynum
The mobility required of current centers is an offshoot of the preponderance of pick-and-roll basketball and it applies to both ends of the floor. Bynum has that plus a back-to-the-basket skill set that is a throwback. As the featured player in Philly, Bynum will offer the old-school brand of inside-out basketball. It looks unlikely Bynum will be ready for the start of the season, but when he returns, he should make an instant impact on the Sixers.

5. Blake Griffin, Clippers (12.3 projected WARP)

Griffin
Once upon a time, power forwards were either low-usage, dirty-work players such as Marc Iavaroni and Kurt Rambis, or more skilled musclemen such as Buck Williams, Truck Robinson and Karl Malone. Now you have Blake Griffin, who jumps like Jordan in his prime and gets down the floor as quickly as any player in the game. His lone weakness remains his poor free throw shooting.

6. Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks (11.1 projected WARP)

Smith
Smith is a hybrid player who can swing between any of the three frontline positions. He's never developed the face-up game that would mark him as a true stretch player, though that's never stopped him from trying. Still, Smith offers a complete set of skills, with rebounding numbers that go up annually and elite weakside shot-blocking.

7. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets (10.9 projected WARP)

Davis
We may not have seen an impact defender with more upside on the other end of the floor since Tim Duncan. We have to remind ourselves that not only is Davis entering what once would have been his sophomore year in college, but he's just three years removed from being a 6-foot-2 guard. Davis is now a power forward on paper, but it will be fascinating to see how his position evolves as Hornets coach Monty Williams learns to fit players around him.

8. Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons (10.7 projected WARP)

Monroe
A center during his first two years, Monroe is being transitioned to the power forward spot. That evolution may be gradual due to the construction of the 4-heavy Pistons roster, but the additions of Andre Drummond and Viacheslav Kravtsov portend this shift. With his excellent playmaking skills, Monroe isn't unlike top power forwards of the past two decades such as Kevin Garnett and Chris Webber. It's unlikely that he's ever going to be a stretch guy, however, which means that the Pistons are always going to lean on traditional lineups with him around.

9. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets (9.1 projected WARP)

Faried
Faried is not a floor spacer, but he shows how elite skill sets always find a way onto the floor no matter what positional trends might be around the league. His stat line generates a list of comparable players that include a lot of centers, Howard being one of them. However, he's 6-foot-8 and has the mobility to guard stretch 4s while still being one of the top offensive rebounders in the league.

10. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers (9.0 projected WARP)

Aldridge
Aldridge has developed into one of the top offensive big men in the league, adding both usage and efficiency to his game on an annual basis. His numbers are very similar to those of Chris Bosh, only Aldridge is more efficient. With the Trail Blazers fielding an extremely young, transitional roster this season, it will be interesting to see if Aldridge becomes more of a volume scorer.



Bradford Doolittle is an author for Basketball Prospectus. Follow him on Twitter at @bbdoolittle.

Last edited by Clippersfan86 : 10-26-2012 at 01:00 PM.
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:00 PM   #2
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

Ryan Anderson, Anthony Davis and Faried over LMA
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:01 PM   #3
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

Quote:
Originally Posted by raprap
Ryan Anderson, Anthony Davis and Faried over LMA

even over guys like Greg Monroe etc. WTF is up with these stat junkies?
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:02 PM   #4
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

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Old 10-26-2012, 01:06 PM   #5
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnySic

KG was mentioned in guys to watch along with Noah and Cousins BTW. I just couldn't fit it all. Still a laughable list.
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:08 PM   #6
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

Here's the method they use to obtain this ranking:

http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:10 PM   #7
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

This person made more money for this article than most people in a year I'm sure.
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:12 PM   #8
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamgine
Here's the method they use to obtain this ranking:

http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html

This is why you don't use a standalone system to officially rank players. You need to combine multiple statistics and formulas. For example offensive ratings show Tyson Chandler is one of the all time great offensive players, then you look at other stats and he looks terrible. We all know as fans of the game that Anderson isn't even a top 10 big, let alone top 3. We also know Davis has a lot to prove and hasn't played an NBA game yet. I'm curious how they came to the conclusion for Davis when he has zero games under his belt
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:12 PM   #9
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

It's funny how everyone wants to ignore stats these days.

Didn't anyone watch Moneyball? Same thing. The old fogies laughing at the "stat nerds" when the stat nerds get results.
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:12 PM   #10
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

I'm not a big fan of WAR in baseball, and even less of a fan of it in basketball.
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:13 PM   #11
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Droid101
It's funny how everyone wants to ignore stats these days.

Didn't anyone watch Moneyball? Same thing. The old fogies laughing at the "stat nerds" when the stat nerds get results.


How many World Series did Oakland win again?
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:14 PM   #12
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Droid101
It's funny how everyone wants to ignore stats these days.

Didn't anyone watch Moneyball? Same thing. The old fogies laughing at the "stat nerds" when the stat nerds get results.
There's a lot to be said for the merit of stats but any stat that says Ryan Anderson is the third best big in basketball is flawed.
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:14 PM   #13
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Droid101
It's funny how everyone wants to ignore stats these days.

Didn't anyone watch Moneyball? Same thing. The old fogies laughing at the "stat nerds" when the stat nerds get results.

Who's making fun of stats? Stats are VERY important in combination with watching film and looking at other metrics. That being said.... common sense should tell these guys Ryan Anderson is not the 3rd best big in the entire NBA. Have they ever heard of the word anomaly?
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:18 PM   #14
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clippersfan86
Who's making fun of stats? Stats are VERY important in combination with watching film and looking at other metrics. That being said.... common sense should tell these guys Ryan Anderson is not the 3rd best big in the entire NBA. Have they ever heard of the word anomaly?
I don't know man. What I do know, is if Blake was number one on the list by the "stats" you wouldn't have had anything bad to say about them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KyrieTheFuture
There's a lot to be said for the merit of stats but any stat that says Ryan Anderson is the third best big in basketball is flawed.
Depends on what you're looking for. Want a tall guy who can drain threes and get boards? Ryan is your dude.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarcastic
How many World Series did Oakland win again?
You missed the whole point of that movie, didn't you?

Give the Yankees (or Red Sox, or any team with tons of money) the stat-geek Oakland had, and you'd get better results, because you can overpay.
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Old 10-26-2012, 01:18 PM   #15
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Default Re: ESPN: Ryan Anderson 3rd best bigman in NBA

orlando once had 2 top 3 big men in the nba? wow

didnt some of you catch that espn article of aldridge on the rise as if he was some unknown in this league?
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