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 12-05-2012, 04:08 AM #1 R.I.P. NBA lottery pick   Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,163 If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. and he shoots 45% from the free throw line, how many points do the Lakers score in a game? Let´s see 20 seconds*3 is a minute. That means six free throw attempts per minute, If he makes 45%, that is 2.7 points per minute. An NBA game has 48 minutes. 48 minutes * 2.7 = 129.6 points per game. Now let me check in the last two games the Lakers have given up 26 points on average in the last 6 minutes of the game. An NBA game has 48 minutes, so 48/6=8. So then 8*26 = 208 points allowed per game. So basically the Lakers defense played in the last 6 minutes is worth 208 points to the opposition over a full game, while Dwight´s FT´s shooting is worth ~130 points to the Lakers. Or to put it differently Dwight would need to shoot 72.2% from the line to score more than the Lakers defense allows over the last six minutes. Shaq has never shot above 62.2% for a season. So yes Dwight´s free throw shooting is pathetic, but even Shaq´s peak FT shooting could not have overcome the defense the Lakers are playing during Hack-a-Dwight.
 12-05-2012, 04:13 AM #2 I<3NBA NBA rookie of the year     Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 6,868 Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. wut?
 12-05-2012, 04:34 AM #3 Qwertyazerty Decent playground baller   Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Belgium Posts: 370 Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. Instead, if we take the first minute of the game (4-0 for LAL) and extrapolate that into a 48 minutes game it would have ended 192-0.
 12-05-2012, 04:45 AM #4 NLZ High School Varsity 6th Man     Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 761 Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. Can't believe I just read that
12-05-2012, 04:57 AM   #5
noob cake
College star

Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 4,031
Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds..

Quote:
 Originally Posted by R.I.P. and he shoots 45% from the free throw line, how many points do the Lakers score in a game? Let´s see 20 seconds*3 is a minute. That means six free throw attempts per minute, If he makes 45%, that is 2.7 points per minute. An NBA game has 48 minutes. 48 minutes * 2.7 = 129.6 points per game. Now let me check in the last two games the Lakers have given up 26 points on average in the last 6 minutes of the game. An NBA game has 48 minutes, so 48/6=8. So then 8*26 = 208 points allowed per game. So basically the Lakers defense played in the last 6 minutes is worth 208 points to the opposition over a full game, while Dwight´s FT´s shooting is worth ~130 points to the Lakers. Or to put it differently Dwight would need to shoot 72.2% from the line to score more than the Lakers defense allows over the last six minutes. Shaq has never shot above 62.2% for a season. So yes Dwight´s free throw shooting is pathetic, but even Shaq´s peak FT shooting could not have overcome the defense the Lakers are playing during Hack-a-Dwight.

New Analysis

Dwight shooting 45% yields 0.9 pts per possession.

All players will score at least 1 pps after getting possession regardless of the second shot. Star players can hit 1.2-1.3, and in the case of Durant 1.6 pps. Only 3 minute qualified players scored less than 1 pps.

However, if Dwight misses with 55% chance, then the shot turns into a fast break. Lakers are not very good at defending the break that should yield even more points.

Let's do the math to see how much the Lakers lose from Hack-A-Dwight.

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM is that the Lakers are locked into 1 point per possession

Based on Dwight's FT Shooting
0 pt = 30.25%
1 pt = 49.5%
2 pt = 20.25%

This is super lose-lose for Lakers. If a team can simply shoot 50% from a regular field goal, Lakers loses out big 50% at 2pt > 20.25% at 2pt. If a team can shoot 40% from 3, lol Lakers gets raped. If a team can just hit 3-4 straight shots, there is really nothing the Lakers can do to retain the lead (beside from benching Dwight).

Regardless of how you do the math, Lakers lose from Hack-A-Dwight.

Last edited by noob cake : 12-05-2012 at 05:05 AM.

 12-05-2012, 04:58 AM #6 StateOfMind12 Banned     Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 5,180 Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. The entire team would be fouled out of the game and would be forced to forfeit. .
12-05-2012, 05:00 AM   #7
ISH' Muslim Community

Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,545
Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds..

Quote:
 Originally Posted by R.I.P. and he shoots 45% from the free throw line, how many points do the Lakers score in a game? Let´s see 20 seconds*3 is a minute. That means six free throw attempts per minute, If he makes 45%, that is 2.7 points per minute. An NBA game has 48 minutes. 48 minutes * 2.7 = 129.6 points per game. Now let me check in the last two games the Lakers have given up 26 points on average in the last 6 minutes of the game. An NBA game has 48 minutes, so 48/6=8. So then 8*26 = 208 points allowed per game. So basically the Lakers defense played in the last 6 minutes is worth 208 points to the opposition over a full game, while Dwight´s FT´s shooting is worth ~130 points to the Lakers. Or to put it differently Dwight would need to shoot 72.2% from the line to score more than the Lakers defense allows over the last six minutes. Shaq has never shot above 62.2% for a season. So yes Dwight´s free throw shooting is pathetic, but even Shaq´s peak FT shooting could not have overcome the defense the Lakers are playing during Hack-a-Dwight.

You have it all wrong! You are not counting in possessions of opponents. If they foul DH every 20 seconds that means only Lakers have the ball. If one team need app. 15-18 seconds for one possession than they can foul Howard every 30-36 second of the game. In that case Lakers are scoring only 70points per 100 possessions and thats what opponent wants.

12-05-2012, 05:25 AM   #8
stolper
Not airballing my layups anymore

Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 100
Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds..

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LEFT4DEAD You have it all wrong! You are not counting in possessions of opponents. If they foul DH every 20 seconds that means only Lakers have the ball. If one team need app. 15-18 seconds for one possession than they can foul Howard every 30-36 second of the game. In that case Lakers are scoring only 70points per 100 possessions and thats what opponent wants.

I think this is the wrong criticism of the OP. I believe the 20 seconds he refers to includes 15-18 seconds per opponent possession + 2-5 seconds it takes to hack Dwight. Neglecting the fouling out issue, the one thing the OP does not take into account is the flow of the game.

If every Lakers possession results in FTs for Dwight, that means there are no fast break points for the Lakers. Without fast breaks, that means they have no easy points. In general, fast break scores allow you to get back on defense and set up quickly. So the Lakers lose slightly in their ability to get their defense set. Also, you have to look at which FT Dwight is missing. If Dwight is missing the second FT more often, then that allows the opponent to rebound and run quickly. In a typical FT line setup, you have the opponent's 1, 4, 5 guys lined up with the Lakers' 3 and 4 plus Dwight. Supposing that the defense gets the rebound on a Dwight miss at the line. A quick pass to the 1 to push the ball up results in a 3 on 2 situation where the opponent's 1,2,3 guys are running against the Lakers' 2 and 3 (assuming that the opponent point guard outruns Dwight down the floor). In an even number fast break situation, the NBA usually favors the offense because of sheer athleticism and skill. In a 3 on 2 with no shotblockers down for the Lakers, this results in a huge advantage for the opponent.

This is only one scenario that you fail to take into account. There are many many ways in which Hack-a-Dwight changes the flow and nature of the game and the Lakers' defense that favors the opponent.

 12-05-2012, 05:32 AM #9 The_Yearning NBA lottery pick     Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,760 Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. Your estimation and theory is flawed. There aren't enough fouls to go around.
 12-05-2012, 06:14 AM #10 HorryIsMyMVP Good college starter     Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 3,383 Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. They should just ban the hack a Dwight. You'd think it would be by now.
12-05-2012, 06:17 AM   #11
BlackWhiteGreen
NBA lottery pick

Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Nottingham
Posts: 5,044
Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds..

Quote:
 Originally Posted by HorryIsMyMVP They should just ban the hack a Dwight. You'd think it would be by now.

Just because it's effective on one player more than any other? Wouldn't that be making a rule just to suit the Lakers?

12-05-2012, 09:12 AM   #12
Rubio2Gasol
Great college starter

Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3,420
Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds..

Quote:
 Originally Posted by R.I.P. and he shoots 45% from the free throw line, how many points do the Lakers score in a game? Let´s see 20 seconds*3 is a minute. That means six free throw attempts per minute, If he makes 45%, that is 2.7 points per minute. An NBA game has 48 minutes. 48 minutes * 2.7 = 129.6 points per game. Now let me check in the last two games the Lakers have given up 26 points on average in the last 6 minutes of the game. An NBA game has 48 minutes, so 48/6=8. So then 8*26 = 208 points allowed per game. So basically the Lakers defense played in the last 6 minutes is worth 208 points to the opposition over a full game, while Dwight´s FT´s shooting is worth ~130 points to the Lakers. Or to put it differently Dwight would need to shoot 72.2% from the line to score more than the Lakers defense allows over the last six minutes. Shaq has never shot above 62.2% for a season. So yes Dwight´s free throw shooting is pathetic, but even Shaq´s peak FT shooting could not have overcome the defense the Lakers are playing during Hack-a-Dwight.

One simple question.

Who is the defensive leader on the team?

 12-05-2012, 09:44 AM #13 Kiddlovesnets NBA Superstar     Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 14,366 Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. The biggest problem of hacking a Dwight for the Lakers is that it disrupts their offense flow. Even if Dwight is able to hit 60-70% of his FTs, its worth the trouble so long as Lakers players are having hot hands. You foul him 2-3 mins and then stop, you most likely gonna find that the other Lakers players aint hitting the shots that usually fall in. On the other hand, if Dwight misses the second FT and the opponent grabs defensive rebound, it can easily trigger a fastbreak opportunity.
 12-05-2012, 09:44 AM #14 swi7ch Banned     Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 4,371 Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. It's why the Lakers have a very low chance of beating the Heat: 1) Lakers have problems with athletic teams. 2) Miami have Harrelson, Pittman, Anthony, Haslem, Miller, Jones, etc. who can foul Dwight almost at will to take them off their rhythm and stop any momentum/run they are building.
 12-05-2012, 09:48 AM #15 bluechox2 #knickstape     Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: NYC Posts: 11,082 Re: If a team fouled Dwight every 20 seconds.. forgot to add in 15 miss shots from kobe

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