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Old 05-12-2013, 07:21 PM   #541
johndeeregreen
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Quote:
I'm sure every team would love to have an outfielder who has over a 1.000 OPS and is 3rd in MLB for Fan Graph WAR and 10th overall in reference WAR.
Cool story, when did I say I wanted him off the club? His brother on the other hand...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carbine
Classic case of someone severely overreacting to a player in a slump and ignoring the total body of work thus far.
Classic case of somebody who has watched 2 Braves games this year lecturing someone who watches them every day because he pulled up a couple stats. Notice that you conveniently gloss over my main beef with him (ineptitude with RISP), maybe you want to consult the stats on that one? Obviously the same size is very small, but it is with the stats you quoted as well.

And calling him a disaster is overreacting, certainly, you got me there. He's been good this year overall, but I'm not looking for 'good' and neither are the Braves. We're looking for a dominant #3 hitter. Pitchers are more afraid of Brian McCann than Justin Upton, it's obvious by the way they are getting pitched to. Maybe my expectations are/were unrealistic, but I'm not looking for a solid contributor, I want a bona fide stud in the middle of that lineup. And he hasn't been it this year, it's as simple as that.

But you made my point for me: someone who has zero knowledge of Braves baseball digs up a few stats that say he's amazing and totally ignore how he got them (hitting solo bombs the first 15 games of the year), gloss over the areas he's underperforming, and make a decision on his play this year. It's insulting, quite frankly, and I'm telling you that he has not been the player his stats suggest. You want me to go more into that based on watching his actual game peformances this year, I'd be glad to, but I get the feeling you're content with your numbers telling you the whole story.

Either way, your point is duly noted: fans get riled up over a player and need to be grounded sometimes, and you have done that in this case, but to act like Upton's been the player Atlanta brought him in to be so far this year just isn't true.

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Old 05-12-2013, 07:35 PM   #542
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Just found out that Francisco Liriano moved into my dad's neighborhood.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:00 PM   #543
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The Upton's have insane tools but at times have a severe lack of want. BJ Upton is a case of a guy who has superstar tools but just doesn't really give much of a shit. I still have hope that Justin Upton will become one of the best players in baseball, he definitely has more want than BJ. BJ is a lost cause of ever becoming a star, he certainly has the tools to be a beast, but he is what he is. 20/20 guy with stellar defense, a low batting average and OBP and tons of strikeouts. This year though he's been absolutely horrendous. He's definitely the type of player that will slack off after getting a big contract.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:02 PM   #544
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It's funny that you say all that, but at the end of the day...if he repeated the exact same production and level of defense/baserunning over 162 games he would be lauded as a dominant hitter/player.

53 HRs
165 wRC+
.413 wOBA

9.5 fan graph WAR
8.0 baseball reference WAR


You have unrealistic expectations for him if that doesn't do it for you. Be happy you haven't gotten Upton from last year.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:04 PM   #545
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Troy Tulowitzki is such a beast. Too bad he's on the Rockies. I think if I were starting an organization he might be the guy I would choose to build around. He's a guy who can give you .300/.360/.500 with 25-35 HR's a year while playing good defense at the most premier position in the game. Of course his injury history is definitely concerning.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:07 PM   #546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irondarts
The Upton's have insane tools but at times have a severe lack of want. BJ Upton is a case of a guy who has superstar tools but just doesn't really give much of a shit. I still have hope that Justin Upton will become one of the best players in baseball, he definitely has more want than BJ. BJ is a lost cause of ever becoming a star, he certainly has the tools to be a beast, but he is what he is. 20/20 guy with stellar defense, a low batting average and OBP and tons of strikeouts. This year though he's been absolutely horrendous. He's definitely the type of player that will slack off after getting a big contract.
I won't even get into BJ Upton, if the guy f*cking ties his shoes it's a good day for him at the park. Once Heyward comes back his position will be in serious jeopardy if Shafer keeps playing like this.

As for Justin, yes, as I said, he's been good, but my beefs with him have been all year and are as follows:

- trouble hitting with RISP - the Braves have so much difficulty just getting the top of their lineup on base that it just kills to not have a guy producing when they do. His approach with nobody on is sound, he will drive the ball the other way, but I don't know if he tightens up a bit or what, but he tends to roll over to the left side a lot more with runners on. Maybe this will work itself out, we'll see.

- Missing mistakes. He's got the 12 HR, yes, but man, the guy swings and misses at a TON of mistakes. Nobody's perfect but the guy is missing way too many pitches left up in the zone to be considered the elite hitter that laymen MLB fans are considering him to be this year.

- Handling fastballs. This ties in a lot with the previous point - he's getting beat by 89-91 mph fastballs over the plate way, way, WAY too often. If you're the guy that he's supposed to be, pitchers hearts skip a beat when making a mistake with their fastball. He hasn't punished them the way an elite hitter should.

My beef with him isn't that he's sucked this year, it's that he hasn't been the player that the hype suggests. I'm a diehard fan so I tend to overreact, and I'm ok with getting called on that, but it should be made clear that it's a misconception that he's been a dominant hitter this year.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:07 PM   #547
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carbine
It's funny that you say all that, but at the end of the day...if he repeated the exact same production and level of defense/baserunning over 162 games he would be lauded as a dominant hitter/player.

53 HRs
165 wRC+
.413 wOBA

9.5 fan graph WAR
8.0 baseball reference WAR


You have unrealistic expectations for him if that doesn't do it for you. Be happy you haven't gotten Upton from last year.
Obviously Justin Upton is a very good baseball player and has had a great start. However, I see where Johndeergreen is coming from, sometimes he get's lazy in the field, sometimes he get's lazy at the plate and sometimes he just doesn't deliver in big situations. Obviously the overall numbers are great, but if you watch the Upton brothers play on a regular basis, they can be extremely frustrating baseball players. Because sometimes you just have a feeling they aren't doing as much as they could be doing with their talent (especially BJ, but Justin sometimes as well)
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:13 PM   #548
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carbine
It's funny that you say all that, but at the end of the day...if he repeated the exact same production and level of defense/baserunning over 162 games he would be lauded as a dominant hitter/player.

53 HRs
165 wRC+
.413 wOBA

9.5 fan graph WAR
8.0 baseball reference WAR


You have unrealistic expectations for him if that doesn't do it for you. Be happy you haven't gotten Upton from last year.
Are we seriously going to just multiply his stats from 35 games and say that would be a great year? Baseball doesn't work like that. I notice you didn't ask if I'd be happy if he hit .220 with runners in scoring position all year too, but I sorta expected that.

Your point is noted, that I overreacted calling him a "disaster," but no number you throw out is going to cancel out the fact that he hasn't been the player out there that the hype suggests. If the numbers say he's been on a tear the first 35 games, and if that's him on a tear, a) I'm not impressed and b) he's going to be pretty damn regular when he comes back down to earth.

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Old 05-12-2013, 08:16 PM   #549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irondarts
Obviously Justin Upton is a very good baseball player and has had a great start. However, I see where Johndeergreen is coming from, sometimes he get's lazy in the field, sometimes he get's lazy at the plate and sometimes he just doesn't deliver in big situations. Obviously the overall numbers are great, but if you watch the Upton brothers play on a regular basis, they can be extremely frustrating baseball players. Because sometimes you just have a feeling they aren't doing as much as they could be doing with their talent (especially BJ, but Justin sometimes as well)

Frustrating or not, those numbers don't lie. I'm not a huge proponent of numbers in other sports, but baseball is much different because it's an outcome based sport. A player can be calculated pretty accurately to his real value.

Extrapolating Justins numbers over a season and we're talking a MVP level player and most certainly a dominant player/hitter. I don't know what this guy was expecting from him if those numbers don't do it for him, because he's been considerably worse for a lot of years prior. Not like he was banging out 50 home runs and having 8-9 WAR years before....not even close.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:20 PM   #550
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carbine
Extrapolating Justins numbers over a season and we're talking a MVP level player and most certainly a dominant player/hitter. I don't know what this guy was expecting from him if those numbers don't do it for him, because he's been considerably worse for a lot of years prior. Not like he was banging out 50 home runs and having 8-9 WAR years before....not even close.
The guy has had the best month of his CAREER and now that's the standard for him, that's what he's going to do all year? Makes total sense. Thanks for your input. Obviously there is no more to baseball than numbers on your computer screen to you.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:26 PM   #551
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johndeeregreen
The guy has had the best month of his CAREER and now that's the standard for him, that's what he's going to do all year? Makes total sense. Thanks for your input. Obviously there is no more to baseball than numbers on your computer screen to you.
If it makes you feel any better I'm worried about Miggy's 1.8 WAR.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:32 PM   #552
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johndeeregreen
The guy has had the best month of his CAREER and now that's the standard for him, that's what he's going to do all year? Makes total sense. Thanks for your input. Obviously there is no more to baseball than numbers on your computer screen to you.


I'm judging him on what he has done so far....the time period in which you are complaining about. I know he will probably regress, but that means nothing for what you're bitching about - which is the 37 games he has played thus far.

In those 37 games, he's playing like a 8-9 WAR, 50HR, .413 wOBA, 165 wRC+ player.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:45 PM   #553
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carbine
I'm judging him on what he has done so far....the time period in which you are complaining about. I know he will probably regress, but that means nothing for what you're bitching about - which is the 37 games he has played thus far.

In those 37 games, he's playing like a 8-9 WAR, 50HR, .413 wOBA, 165 wRC+ player.

Actually, JDG seems to be complaining about underlying weaknesses in his game that will likely cause the regression so his criticism is valid despite the great numbers.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:46 PM   #554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carbine
I'm judging him on what he has done so far....the time period in which you are complaining about. I know he will probably regress, but that means nothing for what you're bitching about - which is the 37 games he has played thus far.

In those 37 games, he's playing like a 8-9 WAR, 50HR, .413 wOBA, 165 wRC+ player.
All of your numbers represent an aggregate, and the numbers are inflated because the first 15 games of the year were a once-in-a-lifetime stretch for Justin Upton. They don't take into account that outside of that he's been good not great. They don't take into account that he's leveled off and where he's leveled off isn't the MVP-level that the Braves are looking for. In about half of the Braves games this year Upton has been the player you're talking about, the other half he's been just another guy out there. That's not dominance. That's a streak. Excuse me if a 15-game stretch doesn't blow my socks off.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:55 PM   #555
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I don't get where the "hype" is coming from either. We have years of results from him, and aside from one year of being very good....he has been just OK.

At this point why would anyone expect him to be something he has never been - a dominant year in, year out...game in, game out player?

His talents suggest he should be, but an informed fan wouldn't get their hopes up and expect a player who has NEVER been a dominant player to turn into one when your team picks him up. His hype was the first year, and the expectations that he would get better and better and better....but that hasn't happened.
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