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Old 02-05-2013, 04:45 AM   #1
DCL
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Default Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

we all know that's not true for the country.

the high tech areas (silicon valley) is thriving though. home prices and rents are pretty insane around these neighborhoods despite the rest of california still being in the dumps. just by using some very basic and totally unscientific indicators, restaurants and malls are packed every weekend, suggesting people aren't struggling all that much around here, which has been a huge turn around since the early stages of the GFC. i'm sure there are some cities around the US experiencing the same, but these cities don't really represent the real national picture obviously.

so how are you guys doing around the country? what do you think of the economy and how accurately is it reflected by the level of the stock market right now?
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:01 AM   #2
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

I don't think the stock market is reflecting the economy, the stock market is reflecting corporate performance which is a different thing. For one the job situation allows companies to keep wages lower. For two companies are benefiting from outsourcing and automated tasks. It's a one-two punch that means higher profits at the top.

So what you have is the productivity of companies is rising, but that is not being distributed back to the employees. There is a tier that benefits and a much larger tier that does not.
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:08 AM   #3
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

cool... a DCL post.

money seems to be circulating around here, i guess. shops are opening or have opened in the area that would have had no business doing so just two years ago. i sit just off a formerly... er, "posh," i guess... shopping / fine dining square set amidst a mostly residential / apartment area in northern ohio. a little island in the oasis... but when i first got here a couple years ago, the square was less stable economically and there were a fair number of knuckleheads blowing through the area. i'm sure harvey pekar would have found it more fascinating than i. anyway, now it's definitely a half-step up or more, economically. yet still with the awesome sushi deals. but for how long, who knows?

anyway, the stock market scares the crap out of me. such a weird money-chase played by little boys that determines so much of the health of our economy. local... national... global. and yet i'm part of that madness. in the comic book i'm healf-heartedly reading about economics, i don't think it's gotten yet to the part about adam smith calling the stock market a positive aspect of healthy mercantilism and all that. not sure it ever will.

:/
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:15 AM   #4
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Quote:
Originally Posted by gigantes
anyway, the stock market scares the crap out of me. such a weird money-chase played by little boys that determines so much of the health of our economy. local... national... global. and yet i'm part of that madness. in the comic book i'm healf-heartedly reading about economics, i don't think it's gotten yet to the part about adam smith calling the stock market a positive aspect of healthy mercantilism and all that. not sure it ever will.

:/

In the past two decades, there has been dramatic shift in how Wall Street worked for people. It used to be you bought stock and held them which meant corporate managers could make decisions based on the long term health of the company. We have moved to a much, much shorter timeframe, where a CEO who doesn't make his quarterly numbers can be out of a job. So the incentives have been messed up, especially if that CEO is going to retire in three years, they can cut costs to bone and make their numbers and get rewarded for it. If the company goes to shit in 5 years because they weren't doing maintenance or investing in research well that's someone else's problem.
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:25 AM   #5
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
In the past two decades, there has been dramatic shift in how Wall Street worked for people. It used to be you bought stock and held them which meant corporate managers could make decisions based on the long term health of the company. We have moved to a much, much shorter timeframe, where a CEO who doesn't make his quarterly numbers can be out of a job. So the incentives have been messed up, especially if that CEO is going to retire in three years, they can cut costs to bone and make their numbers and get rewarded for it. If the company goes to shit in 5 years because they weren't doing maintenance or investing in research well that's someone else's problem.
which is part of why so few learned from the bailouts, right?

i mean, around half a year ago i remember reading a big news thing involving a very high-profile mortgage / banking company that fired a exec-level female mortgage evaluator for being too rational and moral. i.e., she was supposed to be rubber-stamping (or the people working under her were) this stream of quick-money-making mortgages, even though they were faulty as shit and would ultimately drain the company. she got fired for being too whistle-blowerish, so she turned around and blew the actual whistle and sued them... or something. i don't remember hearing anything after that. but it reminded me of a good quote i just added to my collection earlier this morning:

"That men do not learn very much from history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach."
-- Aldous Huxley
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Old 02-05-2013, 06:22 AM   #6
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Quote:
cool... a DCL post.

i've been posting a lot in the other forum... but mostly just childish anti-laker and "kobe will never win another ring" crap.

Quote:
I don't think the stock market is reflecting the economy, the stock market is reflecting corporate performance which is a different thing.

yeah, the market is driven by mainly profits of companies. and even though companies are meeting or beating these profits through outsourcing and cutting costs, they still need enough consumers to purchase their goods and services in the first place, right? when i see numbers like phone sales or trip vacations, i'm wondering what's the true state of the economy. or maybe consumers are still overspending and haven't learned too much from the past, and it's all on credit cards.
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Old 02-05-2013, 07:16 PM   #7
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Great time to invest in stocks. Do your research and pick 5 companies from different fields and invest 100 bucks in each. People don't even understand what's going on.
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Old 02-05-2013, 07:48 PM   #8
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

i was at lowes one day. i got to the parking lot and thought to myself, good lord theres alot of people here. thats when i realized yea our economy is no longer in a recession.
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:01 PM   #9
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

The economy is still obviously terrible, and has been for 4 1/2 or so years now. Unemployment is still 7.9%.
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:05 PM   #10
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
I don't think the stock market is reflecting the economy, the stock market is reflecting corporate performance which is a different thing. For one the job situation allows companies to keep wages lower. For two companies are benefiting from outsourcing and automated tasks. It's a one-two punch that means higher profits at the top.

So what you have is the productivity of companies is rising, but that is not being distributed back to the employees. There is a tier that benefits and a much larger tier that does not.
the stock marker still represents everyone's 401k and retirement though...when the stock market does well it is generally a great thing for US citizens

and shit, despite outsourcing there are still plenty of US workers and when companies stock goes up it generally leads to more hiring.


I know it doesn't tell the whole story, but it is without question a good sign
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:05 PM   #11
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
I don't think the stock market is reflecting the economy, the stock market is reflecting corporate performance which is a different thing.


you hit the nail on the head. in the past 4 years, over 90% of income growth has gone to the top 1% of earners. corporate executives are rolling in cash these days.
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:05 PM   #12
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Quote:
Originally Posted by nathanjizzle
i was at lowes one day. i got to the parking lot and thought to myself, good lord theres alot of people here. thats when i realized yea our economy is no longer in a recession.

Little late there.

We haven't been in recession since June 2009.
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:09 PM   #13
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nanners
you hit the nail on the head. in the past 4 years, over 90% of income growth has gone to the top 1% of earners. corporate executives are rolling in cash these days.
yes but if the company is PUBLIC (not 90% held by the execs but by investors) and it is going UP in value, that is money for the American people.

Most people's retirement funds consist of a diversified portfolio with a wide range of stocks...when the stock market goes up, so do people's savings
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:13 PM   #14
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShaqAttack3234
Unemployment is still 7.9%.

Yeah, it's still kind of high and should ideally be closer to the 5-6% range. But at least it's coming down from ~9.3% in 2009, ~9.6% in 2010, ~8.9% in 2011 and 8.3-8.1% in most of 2012.
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:29 PM   #15
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Default Re: Stock Market suggests we're in a thriving economy BUT

Quote:
Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
yes but if the company is PUBLIC (not 90% held by the execs but by investors) and it is going UP in value, that is money for the American people.

Most people's retirement funds consist of a diversified portfolio with a wide range of stocks...when the stock market goes up, so do people's savings

public companies are held by mostly hedge funds and other institutional investors. a lot of americans dont have retirement funds or any sort of investment whatsoever.

yes, the average american does benefit when the stock market goes up.... their gain is nowhere remotely close to the amount that the average corporate exec benefits tho.

it is a fact that the vast majority of all stock is held by the wealthiest fraction of americans.

Last edited by Nanners : 02-05-2013 at 09:36 PM.
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