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Old 03-28-2013, 01:05 PM   #1
RaininThrees
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Default Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

Hrrm.

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It's very hard to find people outside of the walls of MLSE that agree with the decision to lock DeMar DeRozan up to a long-term extension before this season started. He would have been a restricted free agent this summer and as such the Raptors would have controlled his fate no matter what kind of offers he received on the open market.

It's well-covered territory at this point and DeRozan hasn't done enough this season to quiet the chorus of ire directed at his extension.

However, could it be that Bryan Colangelo was playing the long game here? The assumption has always been that he was so infatuated with DeRozan that he blindly threw a bucket of cash at him regardless of whether or not the market forces dictated it prudent, but what if there was more that went into the move than that? What if Colangelo was looking nine months out to a free agent market he didn't feel he could participate in and bought himself a chip that could get him a seat at the table?

I'll grant at the outset that this is a far-flung supposition, but it should be noted that this is the kind of thinking that general managers are paid to do. One of the chief responsibilities of a management team in any company is to look as far down the road as possible and so that they can make strategic decisions that will keep their company competitive further down the line. Sometimes there is a myopia in sports that comes as a result of the nightly evaluations (wins and losses), but long-term thinking is what separates the Oklahoma City's from the Sacramento's in the NBA and the Raptors need some of it if they are going to pull themselves out of the muck.

So, if we are to give Colangelo the benefit of the doubt on this occasion, what might his end-game be? Well, let's flash-forward to July to find out.

When July 1 rolls around, a bevy of NBA teams will be armed with cap space to use in their hunt for free agent help to bolster their rosters. Utah, Washington, Houston, Cleveland, Atlanta, Charlotte and Detroit are all poised to have max space under the cap, and Milwaukee could join those ranks if they amnesty Drew Gooden, Monta Ellis opts out of his deal and/or the team decides against re-signing Brandon Jennings.

On top of that, teams like Sacramento, Philadelphia, Orlando, Phoenix and Dallas could all have some money to spend depending on how the handle their respective player options and cap holds. Suffice it to say, there are a lot of teams with money to spend in the NBA this summer.

Who, then, will these teams be chasing? Well, obviously they'd love to snag Chris Paul or Dwight Howard, but it is highly unlikely either will be departing the Los Angeles area this summer. That leaves 'gettable' restricted free agents like Jennings, Tyreke Evans and Nikola Pekovic and veterans like Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson and Kevin Martin at the top of the free agent crop - hardly a glittering array for all of that cap space that'll be floating around this summer. Even if someone goes all-in on Andrew Bynum this summer, that still leaves a lot of money for a lot of unappealing assets.

I believe it was this very scenario that prompted the Raptors to secure DeRozan last summer, with the pervading worry being that some jilted franchise would throw an insane offer at DeRozan in an attempt to pry him away from Toronto, whether the move was well-considered or not.

There are going to be several organizations that have sold the virtues of cap space to their fan bases that are going to come up empty in free agency this summer. It is basic supply and demand.

While savvier teams will step back and regroup, others will scurry for the flashiest, face-saving transaction they can execute. If a team was going to go that route with DeRozan, at least now the Raptors are in the driver's seat.

The Raptors can now wait for the first week or two of free agency to go by, see who was unable to make use of their cap space, and offer to help them make use of their cash hoard by figuring out a workable trade for DeRozan.

This way the Raptors control the teams that they'd engage with and what kind of return they are seeking. Whether that means the Raptors try and pull picks, veterans that fit the team better or simply some cap flexibility of their own, there will be no shortage of teams to call after the dust settles on the initial flurry of free agent action.

As the roster is currently assembled, the club is well-positioned to lose DeRozan without getting a starting shooting guard back in return. The Raptors could easily slide Landry Fields in alongside Rudy Gay (his off-ball movement would be a great counterattack for the kind of attention Gay gets from opposing defences), it would open up more minutes for Terrence Ross in his second year and it would make Gay the primary scorer and would - rightly - shift Kyle Lowry into a more prominent scoring roll.

In a way what the Raptors would be doing in this scenario is exactly what, in hindsight, they should have done with Andrea Bargnani but neglected to: capitalize on the chance that DeRozan could still take it to another level (despite relatively stagnant production over the last three years) while leaving someone else holding the bag if he doesn't.

At his price (roughly $9.5-million per year) DeRozan has to take it to another level to avoid being considered overpaid, and it would behoove the Raptors to make that someone else's problem like they did with Jason Kapono and Hedo Turkoglu.

This is actually a strategy that Denver's Masai Ujiri - a former Colangelo disciple - has used to perfection on more than on occasion while improving his Nuggets squad. He inked Nene to a massive deal and dealt him for JaVale McGee a few months later. He gave Arron Afflalo a healthy new deal only to trade him as part of the package that got Andre Iguodala. Heck, more than a few pundits expect the Nuggets to go that route again after seeing the dollars they threw at McGee last summer. Denver has had great success using this method of asset management and Toronto could certainly stand to steal a page out of that play book.

While this may not sound like a particularly exciting brand of team-building - certainly when compared against the draft or free agency - it is what the Raptors have left to work with. They have no first round pick in this draft, no cap space to play with and yet they still have a lot of problems that need addressing.

Colangelo needs a chip that he can bring to the table and he may have had the foresight to buy it last fall, anticipating at least the chance that he may need it in the near future.

Of course, this could also all be wild over-speculation. The Raptors have never been shy about espousing their praise for DeRozan, nor have they made any indication that he isn't in their longterm plans. That said, whether it was intentional or not, the club has made him redundant and overpaid and even if it wasn't in their plans, they may be forced to shop him this summer, regardless.

It should be noted I am loathe to give this management the benefit of the doubt on this.

http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/tim_chisholm/?id=419300
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Old 03-28-2013, 01:54 PM   #2
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

Sell Sell Sell!
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Old 03-28-2013, 03:51 PM   #3
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

possibly the best thing about being a Raptors fan, no one knows just how good our players are

If anyone is willing to trade for him and give us someone who is a great back to the basket player, pull the trigger. Immediately. Throw in a back up pg. Please and thank you.
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Old 03-28-2013, 06:53 PM   #4
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

Hopefully there is another GM out there drinking the same kool aid.
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Old 03-29-2013, 04:12 AM   #5
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

At this point in time, he's a below average player who is inconsistent with no real go to move or improvements in his game.

Doubt any other management is taking his contract.
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Old 03-29-2013, 09:32 AM   #6
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

I don't see what reason we would have to give the dude the benefit of the doubt. He did the same with Bargnani, he'll probably end up doing the same with others if MLSE lets him stick around long enough . But yes, totally agree that the time to trade DD would be this off-season while "potential" is still a word being thrown around with him around the league. That being said, remember the Chisolm "it's time to trade Bargnani" article a couple years back? All speculation, no insight, and guess who's still on the roster with his value at an all-time low.
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Old 03-29-2013, 11:51 AM   #7
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

Quote:
Originally Posted by Burgz V2
possibly the best thing about being a Raptors fan, no one knows just how good our players are

If anyone is willing to trade for him and give us someone who is a great back to the basket player, pull the trigger. Immediately. Throw in a back up pg. Please and thank you.

What's the point, whoever that would be it's not like he would be getting the ball
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Old 03-30-2013, 05:27 AM   #8
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

I'm still trying to figure out how teams will be reaching to pay 9.5 Mill for a SG who can't shoot. That would be one hell of a sell if it happened. On one hand, 9.5M is relatively low compared to what most SG's are making on playoff teams (and even some non-playoff teams) but again a SG who can't shoot.

I checked on 82games.com and his jump shooting is at .416. He makes up for it by attacking the basket and getting layups/dunks/FT's. But more typically that's what you want out of your SF.

Now to compare his jump shot % to other SG's in the league, even high volume ones:
Joe Johnson .494
Kobe Bryant .460
JR Smith .440
Jamal Crawford .496
D-Wade .434

I mean he still doesn't stack up. The closest comparison out of those guys is something like a D-Wade who still doesn't shoot very well from the perimiter but takes 35% of his shots from the inside, is consistently in the top 10 in FTA's, and is pretty much stellar in the paint along with being great defender and rebounder for his size, and an excellent playmaker. Whereas DD is pretty good at attacking the basket, he's improved his defense, rebounding, assist numbers, but he's still a clear notch below being a top tier SG and I don't think he's ever gonna get there. That said I do hope that other GM's out there still think he will.
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Old 04-01-2013, 09:14 AM   #9
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

Quote:
Originally Posted by bokes15
.... Whereas DD is pretty good at attacking the basket, he's improved his defense, rebounding, assist numbers, but he's still a clear notch below being a top tier SG and I don't think he's ever gonna get there. That said I do hope that other GM's out there still think he will.


Nice post good stats.

I see Ike is opting out in Denver according to Si.com. I suppose in some scenerios DD might be a piece to aquire lesser performance at reasonable cost assuming you belive "the aquiring team system" will improve DD's game. Denver being my example fo where a DD trade could make sense.... not suggesting that Ike comes back here.... suggesting that Denver aquires a DD to replace an Ike lost as a FA.

In fairness to DD his stats also reflect a lack of depth support around him; and now his stats sort of reflect him palying the same role as Gay... duplication.

However I dont or cant see any scenerio where DD, Kliza, Bargnani are some sort of package... and that is probably what we all want even if it is journeymen, capspace, and or draft picks back.
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Old 04-01-2013, 09:25 AM   #10
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

Hi overall shooting % is 434 according to this site.

His efficiency head to head is actually not bad depending on how much you consider the negative ratings verse Lbron et al verses the pluses against Jason Kidd... I mean it points out the obvious in that he is not an elite player

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball...file/13/28/400
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Old 04-01-2013, 09:41 AM   #11
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jballer
Hi overall shooting % is 434 according to this site.

His efficiency head to head is actually not bad depending on how much you consider the negative ratings verse Lbron et al verses the pluses against Jason Kidd... I mean it points out the obvious in that he is not an elite player

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball...file/13/28/400
To me, an elite shooting guard has to be able to shoot, period. Hence why I posted jumpshooting perimeter stats from 82games.com. And to be an elite SG without being able to shoot you have to be stellar at other things like the D-Wade example I gave. Defense, passing, finishing in the paint, ballhanding, rebounding, playmaking, etc... DD is an ok rebounder, he's gotten pretty good at attacking the basket but that's about it.
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Old 04-03-2013, 05:23 PM   #12
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

I seriously doubt any team would be interested, but I'd gladly eat my words.

It doesn't make sense to have all 3 of Derozan, Gay, and Ross on the team, one should be the odd man out. I've always liked Derozan, but he's likely hit his ceiling and now he has a bad contract to go along with it. We're likely stuck with Gay for quite some time and it's too early to give up on Ross.
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Old 04-13-2013, 12:41 PM   #13
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

at this point the greatest value we could realize is if we get to amnesty Landry "Good kid, can't play" Fields
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Old 04-13-2013, 01:01 PM   #14
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Default Re: Chisholm: Derozan Could have Serious Off-Season Value

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Originally Posted by bk33
at this point the greatest value we could realize is if we get to amnesty Landry "Good kid, can't play" Fields

He was signed post-CBA so no dice.
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