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Old 05-22-2013, 10:06 PM   #16
Thorpesaurous
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Originally Posted by Da KO King
What's good Thorpe? Haven't spoken to you in a while.

I actually like Withey for the Knicks. He does everyone that Knicks fans want Tyson Chandler to do with the bonus of understanding when/where to move offensively so he isn't clogging up things for Carmelo Anthony or Amar'e Stoudemire.


Thanks buddy. I'm alright. I've got a torn achilles, which is part of why I can sit down and write 10,000 words on the NBA draft before the lottery balls are even picked.

I may re-write the lotto portion at least with the adjustments.
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Old 05-22-2013, 10:19 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by el gringos
McCollum will be taken as a pg


Olynyk, Steven Adams, Saric, and Archie Goodwin should all be moved up

Porter, Burke, oladipo should all be moved down.

Adams is available and the Knicks don't take him it's a shame. Unless its Goodwin or Saric.


In my version, I had Oladipo falling to 9, which is a pretty decent drop for him by most accounts.
In my What I think will happen version, I'm more going by what I'm reading and hearing online and on TV.

I kind of feel Olynyk, Len, Adams, Withey, Zeller, etc, will sort of affect each other's value some and push each other down the board. But I watched all of the combine footage on NBA TV and ESPN (which is pathetic ... the lesson is ... don't tear your achilles), and I could very much see Adams moving up. Those guys loved him, and he very much looked the part and measured up. But I saw him a few times this year, including in person, and just wasn't very impressed.

Goodwin was another guy that I just really didn't like. He's kind of a tweener all over to me. A SG who's not a great shooter, but not a PG, and not didn't even measure that well physically. He's got a great motor though.

Saric is another guy though that I could see moving up on the what I think will happen side of things. He's got the type of game that some team that really needs to swing for the fence might just fall in love with early. And to be completely, I think part of what happened was I sort of lost Saric in the shuffle (this is trickier to do, keeping track of who's coming off of two seperate boards), and may have had him slip in the What I think will happen board, just due to not realizing he was there for a pick or two.
I had Saric at 18 to Atlanta, which seems still seems reasonable, but again he's a tough call cause it would be that one mystery team that falls for him early. Which is sort of true of all players, but when it's a stash type foreign player, it sort of throws out things like need and current roster, and it becomes much more of an unpredictable kind of a pick.


Thanks for reading.
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Old 05-22-2013, 10:28 PM   #18
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Seriously bro, there are sportswriters out there earning tons of money putting out work that's chickenscratch compared to this.







On another note, Please God let Alex Len fall into our lap.


Thanks for the compliment. I've actually been published a few times writing sort of off the cuff fluff pieces for a startup sports magazine in San Diego that never took off. But they were short narative type things, about stuff like "who's the toughest guy on campus ... the lacrosse goalie" type of things. And I wrote one about the mid-level recruit staying four years becoming more part of the culture, like "real" Syracuse fans probably 20 years from now will probably hold Carmello Anthony in a type of different light than Jerry McNammara. It was supposed to be like an edgy Maxim type attitude magazine but about college sports. I got into it because a friend of a friend was an editor, and they were scrambling for content, and I used to write emails to my friends all the time not unlike how I post on here, and one of them forwarded one of them to her and was like "you wanna see if I can talk this guy into writing for you", and she was like absolutely, and the next thing you know I've got a by line on the front cover of a magazine.
I think the wound up with 8 issues before folding. But it was fun while it lasted.

One thing this will teach you is that it really is work. I spent like all Sunday doing this, and it's totally not a submittable piece. I'd have to re-write it at least twice to publish it legitimately.
Ideally I'd do what I did, then wait till the lottery and go over it again, but at least I'd have some of my team logic, and opinions on players, figured out and ready to be used.
Then hopefully have someone else go over it a third time to check for anything I really missed went blind on.

Thanks for reading.
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Old 06-01-2013, 08:07 PM   #19
DwadeOverLebron
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Thorpe! Tremendous job on the write up.. Although I disagree with some projections I loved the read.

I really like Alex Len as a prospect and I think he should and will be a top 5 pick and he might become the best player out of this draft. Size, athleticism, fluidity, already a good offensive game with touch, and great defensive potential, along with a confidence you need to have in order to succeed in the league. I would make Len my #1 pick. I think it's crazy how many good-solid bigs there are in this draft, that I think it's hurting each others value.. Crazy! I don't remember a draft where there was this many bigs to consider.

I love mclemore but I gotta take oladipo over him. Again I love mclemore, he has all the tools besides the ball handling but he doesnt have that killer instinct I'm looking for. Oladipo not nearly as good of a perimeter shooter as ben and lacks a little ball handling also but one thing with oladipo is that he will be better tomorrow then he is today. Also he plays like he can defend anybody and will stop the opposing teams best player. You have got to love that attitude and confidence about him. And I think his jumpshot will improve over time. Also I think mclemore will take some time to get situated in the league, he seems a little soft and that maybe due to his age but I would still take oladipo based on long term.

I don't want to type a book here cuz my Achilles is still intact but another player I could see as a standout is Michael carter Williams. Just a huge pg with true legitimate pg skills. I think he would fit perfectly with Dallas or if the Knicks could move up in the draft they should take him.

Again don't want to write a book here but all I'm gonna say is... Len, Noel, Zeller, Gobert, Plumlee, Dieng, Olynek, Adams, Withey, Iverson, Mitchell. Wow! Look at all those bigs! I don't know why people are saying this is a weak draft class, that looks pretty impressive to me.

McCollum, Anthony Bennett, and my dark horse pierre Jackson will also make solid pros. Players who I think won't live up to the hype are trey Burke (I just don't see him starting in the league in a yr or two, hes too small.. I see him as a dj augustine clone) and Archie Goodwin (I watched a lot of uk ball and I always kept my eye on him and he was a serious disappointment every time, I might be biased though).
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Old 06-05-2013, 11:21 AM   #20
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Thorpe! Tremendous job on the write up.. Although I disagree with some projections I loved the read.

I really like Alex Len as a prospect and I think he should and will be a top 5 pick and he might become the best player out of this draft. Size, athleticism, fluidity, already a good offensive game with touch, and great defensive potential, along with a confidence you need to have in order to succeed in the league. I would make Len my #1 pick. I think it's crazy how many good-solid bigs there are in this draft, that I think it's hurting each others value.. Crazy! I don't remember a draft where there was this many bigs to consider.

I love mclemore but I gotta take oladipo over him. Again I love mclemore, he has all the tools besides the ball handling but he doesnt have that killer instinct I'm looking for. Oladipo not nearly as good of a perimeter shooter as ben and lacks a little ball handling also but one thing with oladipo is that he will be better tomorrow then he is today. Also he plays like he can defend anybody and will stop the opposing teams best player. You have got to love that attitude and confidence about him. And I think his jumpshot will improve over time. Also I think mclemore will take some time to get situated in the league, he seems a little soft and that maybe due to his age but I would still take oladipo based on long term.

I don't want to type a book here cuz my Achilles is still intact but another player I could see as a standout is Michael carter Williams. Just a huge pg with true legitimate pg skills. I think he would fit perfectly with Dallas or if the Knicks could move up in the draft they should take him.

Again don't want to write a book here but all I'm gonna say is... Len, Noel, Zeller, Gobert, Plumlee, Dieng, Olynek, Adams, Withey, Iverson, Mitchell. Wow! Look at all those bigs! I don't know why people are saying this is a weak draft class, that looks pretty impressive to me.

McCollum, Anthony Bennett, and my dark horse pierre Jackson will also make solid pros. Players who I think won't live up to the hype are trey Burke (I just don't see him starting in the league in a yr or two, hes too small.. I see him as a dj augustine clone) and Archie Goodwin (I watched a lot of uk ball and I always kept my eye on him and he was a serious disappointment every time, I might be biased though).


Thanks for reading.

I gotta say, I really like Len too, but I'm just really concerned about the bad feet stress fractures to bigs. It's one of those injuries that just seems to haunt bigs. It gets better, but never really better. And as good as he looks, he did only average 12 pts against a down ACC, but again his own team didn't help in it's inability to get him the ball.

The Oladipo thing is interesting, because it's almost like he's being penalized for his motor and work ethic. You're saying "you know he'll be better today than tomorrow", but I think other teams look at that sort of as he's topped off his ceiling. If he's working this hard, why isn't that jumper more consistent. Why isn't the handle better. Perhaps he's maxed out his abilities. It's a tough call, but for the range those players are going, you're looking at bad teams, and I think McLemore's jumper gives him a higher cieling, which will push him ahead for teams like that. I do agree that his personality may hurt his development, but even without that killer instinct, his stroke and body will make him a viable third banana type asset to me for his career at worst.

MCW is a guy who my opinion of him I hold in a particularly high regard, which sounds pretty pompous. But I'm a big Syracuse fan. I watched probably 90%of his games this season. In addition, my annual Big East pilgrimmage means I got to see him in person a few times. I really like the kid. He plays as long as advertised. And his vision really is on an elite level. And his jumper is as bad as advertised. All that I'm alright with. My issue is that from what I've seen, he's not going to be able to do the nitty gritty of PG work that's required. He's incredibly bothered by pressure getting into an offense. Traps and the such, which he'll actually see a lot less at the NBA level, really bother him, which is surprising given his size. But more than that are the real ball hounding defenders. Someone like Avery Bradley will really have an impact on him. And during a playoff setting, when teams have more rest and more time to prepare, I could see teams jumping him pretty aggressively. And if it's bad enough, it could become straight scouting report data. He could get better at it. Or he could be a guy who's best fit will be next to a shoot first PG, like Steph Curry, where he can run as a playmaker in the halfcourt, and an open court threat with the ball on the break, while having help getting into sets when the game slows down. Sort of the way Ron Harper played "PG" during the Bulls title runs.

I too am really impressed by the depth of bigs. Check out Lucas Nogueira from Brazil too. A real energy, runner, finisher, shot blocker type, at 6-11 and long. Needs to get stronger, but after more research, it seems like he's a better prospect than Gobert, who in spite of his rediculous length, just may not be athletic enough to give more than spot duty. The thing about Nogueira is that the differences between he and Noel, after all the measurements and stuff, aren't that drastic. If Noel is going one, and I can get Nogeira in the 20s, that seems like a steal to me.
I'm starting to wonder about Noel as the top pick. I had some other reasoning for taking him. Stashing away that top pick and sucking for a better draft isn't a bad idea. But after coming in so thin, with the knee injury, which I know will be fine, but it sucks a year of prime developent from a guy who really needs the work on his post game. And god forbid the knee affects him physically even a little long term, because his athleticism is so much his calling card at this point.

Burke coming in at 5-11 bothered me a lot too. I don't know why but I thought he was more like 6-2 with biggish wings, and plays with strength because he's so physically solid, but I'm now really concerned about the size too. I'm thinking more like good Jameer Nelson now. Which is fine, just probably not top 5 fine. More like 10-15 fine if the need fits.
And I'm glad so see that someone else who has seen probably more Kentucky than me has questions on Goodwin. There's a fair amount of positive press coming out, but I'm just not seeing it at all. Honestly even as high as I'd take him in "My" version of the draft, some of that is just bending to the general value concensus, which is something I think teams need to do. He'd at least be a tradeable commodity even if I don't love the guy just because of his concensus value at some point if he fell far enough. It's not doing things like that that makes me shake my head when something like the Renaldo Balkman pick happens. I'm sort of like, I get it, you like the guy, and I'm fine with that, and since I don't get paid to do this research, I'm fine giving you the benefit of the doubt that the guy is good, but you coulda gotten him later. You could've even tried to trade back if you felt your second rounder was too late.
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Old 06-05-2013, 12:15 PM   #21
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Cool read. I definitely agree with Otto being a great fit in Cleveland. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see them take Otto #1 given the Cavs recent history "reaching" for Tristan Thompson and Waiters.

Getting a defensive shotblocker like Noel to play behind Waiters and Kyrie might be too tempting but the Cavs have no problem with bucking conventional wisdom.

I do like the depth of bigs too, which is encouraging because the Sixers pick in the late lotto. I think there is good value in the 10-20s for bigs but I wouldn't feel too comfortable with any of them with a high lotto pick. Adams is really shooting up draft boards which is nice to see for a young guy trying to earn money for his family but I'm still not sold after watching him at Pitt. He is still extremely shaky in his understanding of the game. Granted, he doesn't have the same amount of experience as most draft picks so he is all potential at this point.

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Old 06-05-2013, 12:22 PM   #22
Thorpesaurous
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Cool read. I definitely agree with Otto being a great fit in Cleveland. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see them take Otto #1 given the Cavs recent history "reaching" for Tristan Thompson and Waiters.

Getting a defensive shotblocker like Noel to play behind Waiters and Kyrie might be too tempting but the Cavs have no problem with bucking conventional wisdom.


I have read quite a bit of opinion that the Cavs could seriously be shopping that pick. That makes sense to me. They've got so many young pieces that they obviously like, and someday they're gonna have to re-up all of them. Personally I even like what the older Zeller gives them in depth up front.

What I've read is that they would like an impact youngish veteran to try and make a real push at changing their culture. Someone like Love or Aldridge.

This thing is confusing enough though without trying to include theoretical trades.
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Old 06-05-2013, 08:58 PM   #23
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since they need a 3 and contend for a playoff i wonder if they would take paul pierce for the first pick straight up

and boston will draft noel and tank and hope to get wiggins or parker

:)

rondo + whoever + wiggins/parker + noel + melo
future celtics ?
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Old 06-06-2013, 09:03 AM   #24
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since they need a 3 and contend for a playoff i wonder if they would take paul pierce for the first pick straight up

and boston will draft noel and tank and hope to get wiggins or parker

:)

rondo + whoever + wiggins/parker + noel + melo
future celtics ?


As a Celtic fan that's a great idea. But I think they're looking for someone younger than PP. I've most consistenly heard about Love and Aldridge. I'm not sure who else would fit in that mold of age and talent level.
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Old 06-06-2013, 01:36 PM   #25
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I really like MCW for the Jazz. They need a playmaker and a leader and those are his best skills. Young guys like Hayward, Favors, Burke, and even vets like Big Al would benefit from having a high IQ guy on the floor too...


Another asset is his height, he may be able to guard both backcourt positions...
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Old 06-07-2013, 12:59 AM   #26
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So you already understand oladipo shouldn't be a top 5 pick

Trey Burke will "slide" and the sheep will follow along eventually

But please Thorpeasouraus explain to me how Otto porter is some consensus 3rd pick- how could a team take him over the group of bigs and a few other players. I feel like its generous to put porter in the top 6-8. To think he is a lock top 3 is something I don't understand. Explain to me what makes him such a great prospect, what do you expect from him?
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Old 06-09-2013, 02:34 PM   #27
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So you already understand oladipo shouldn't be a top 5 pick

Trey Burke will "slide" and the sheep will follow along eventually

But please Thorpeasouraus explain to me how Otto porter is some consensus 3rd pick- how could a team take him over the group of bigs and a few other players. I feel like its generous to put porter in the top 6-8. To think he is a lock top 3 is something I don't understand. Explain to me what makes him such a great prospect, what do you expect from him?

Yeah, I like Olidipo, and on the right team I think he'll fill a role immediately and be productive. But he's a career very good rotation player. Not someone that to me even has a chance to change the fortune of a franchise.

I do see Burke sliding at this point. Those size numbers just don't add up nearly enough.

As for Otto, I do think he's notched himself up a tier for a few reasons. One is that he's pretty much the only player of his type in this draft. He's a legit 3 (SF, not pick I mean). The only other guy who can be truely categorized like that is probably Mohammad, and he's really more scorer than anything else. He's got the legit SF body. And he's got that multifaceted skill set. He can rebound, handle some, shoot from the midrange, and he's a plus passer. I think there's legit room for growth too. He's got the foundation of a shot that can be pushed out to 3pt range, although he may never be a real sharpshooter, he can be a threat, and his handle has shown flashes of being good enough to do more already, it's probably a matter of confidence.
He kind of did everything for G'Town. He was their best decision maker by far. Their best shot maker. He made FT to close games. He made plays with and without the ball. And when they face pressure, he was the key to breaking it, weather they got it to him and cleared, or he flashed to open spot and kicked it up court. He was also their best defender, both on the perimeter and on the interior. He's another Big East guy so I got to see him in person probably a half dozen times the past two years. He reminded me a little of the undervalued Marquette guys that I held in seemingly too high a regard in the past few years because when you saw them in person they seemed to do more than you'd get by watching them in spurts on TV, like Wes Matthews and Jimmy Butler. As the flow of the game happens, it just felt like Otto was in the middle of everything GTown need to get done.
The other thing that I think affects his value is that there are a couple teams with whom he's a perfect fit. Cleveland being one. Although Noell makes some sense as well for them. They're a team who has a backcourt set that's young, and has spent a few high picks on bigs the past few years. In addition they probably don't want a clogger offensively with that backcourt. A true SF who can handle some ball responsibilities to free up the backcourt to play without the ball some is a great asset to a team like that. Washington also is like that. Their bigs are a little older, but they're on the cusp of being a playoff team.
I also don't see any of these bigs as being truely elite. If Noel were Shaq, or Duncan, or Chris Webber, or even Anthony Davis, then fine, I'd say the value may be higher among the bigs as a whole. But I feel like we're looking at a large group of genuine pro asset bigs, but not real franchise changers. Len is probably my favorite of the group in terms of size and offensive potential, but those stress fractures really scare me.
The other thing I feel like Otto can do that seperates him from Mohammad, I feel like he can float over to PF in a small ball set. He's a really terrific rebounder for his size. And he's a competitor who is very aware on defense, even if he's not always capable. There isn't another SF in this draft that can do that.

For a telling sign about how highly I regard Otto, gun to my head, I'd say Otto is a better prospect now than MKG was coming out last year, and I loved Gilchrist going back to seeing him in HS.


The other guy you mentioned that interests me greatly in regard to Porter is Saric. He seems to have a lot of similar features. By all accounts he's got a great basketball mind, and that may put him close to Porter in terms of playmaking. He's a little bigger, but not the athlete. And he's a little better shooter. He's right on the cusp to me, but it's a real fine line before one of those guys just becomes a stretch four who can pass it some, if they can't break down off the bounce or defend at the SF spot. But Saric is another guy I can see moving up because of the dearth of players like that in this draft.
Another thing Otto can do that seperates him even
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Old 06-11-2013, 03:11 AM   #28
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Excellent post OP! I've never seen so much thought being put into a message board post.I liked your analysis on MCW, which is why I believe he wouldn't be the best fit for the jazz right now. Last year we so clearly lacked offensive production from the PG position, at times it was painful to watch, got much worse when Mo went down. We need someone who can distribute yes but who can also hit a jumpshot when needed. Which is why I would prefer Dennis Schroeder from Germany. From the videos I've seen he's got a nice looking shot and excellent handles. I do agree Larkin feels a bit of a reach given his small stature, he looks like he is more of a backup, we could take him at #21 if available but I kind of agree - 'Khaaaannnnn!' LOL. Although Larkin could fit us well being a good shooter. At #21 I would absolutely LOVE Allen Crabbe, he moves so well without the basketball that would really fit into the jazz offense and is one of the best shooters in the draft.

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Old 06-11-2013, 05:38 PM   #29
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Otto Porter is going to be like Granger/George. And G-Town players going to the NBA under JT3 have turned out well. His whole beating UConn thing makes me not like him, though.
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Old 06-12-2013, 12:45 PM   #30
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This is really an interesting read and you've got a lot of good things to say, Thorpe.

I'm really hoping Cleveland reaches for Porter and the Magic get high on Burke, which would end up leaving the Suns with one of McL or Oladipo. However I don't really see the Burke thing happening anymore and I feel like the Suns will be left with Bennett or Len if they choose to stay at #5. I haven't heard about if Bennett has worked out with Charlotte yet or not but I think they're the team to take him above the Suns if it were to happen. I thought it may be the Wizards at first but I feel like they'll end up with Porter.

The thing I really like about this draft is the fact that the top 5 isn't truly set in stone, and I feel like it will really be worth the watch. With lots of high pick teams possibly looking for a trade it really opens things up for a more exciting night where anything could happen. There hasn't been a draft where the #1 pick isn't more or less set in stone in several years and I think that's what makes this year exciting. I hope we aren't let down and it isn't as quiet as this year's trade deadline.
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