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Old 02-15-2007, 08:42 AM   #1
TWolves050179
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Default Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

This might seem like a lopsided question but is Josh Howard considerably more valuable than Gerald Wallace is? Wallace has really turned it on lately and was thinking about offering Josh for him.
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Old 02-15-2007, 09:09 AM   #2
BigAl
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

Its kind of strange.

Going into the draft Wallace was more valuable. Then he slumped and Howard surged and became more valuable. Right now, I would say that Howard is still more valuable because of consistency, but, Gerald Wallace is definitely rebounding and climbing the ranks again.
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Old 02-15-2007, 09:27 AM   #3
bbplaya21
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

I'd take Wallace given if he's healthy.
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Old 02-15-2007, 10:27 AM   #4
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

wallace is an insane rebounder and he as been scoring pretty well lately...
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:16 PM   #5
BigAl
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

Here are some numbers to consider:

Over the past 10 games, Wallace is superior:

Wallace 22.4 Pts, 8.4 Reb, 3 Ast, 2.1 Stl, 1.3 Blcks, FG 0.503, FT 0.705, 3pm 0.8

Howard 19.8 Pts, 6.7 Reb, 2 Ast,1.1 Stl, 0.5 Blcks, FG 0.451, FT 0.777, 3pm 1.2

Over the course of the season Howard is superior:

wallace 16 Pts,6.5 Reb,2.1 Ast,1.9 Stl, 0.9 Blcks, FG 48.4, FT 67.3, 3pm 0.4

howard 19.4 Pts, 7.2 Reb, 1.9 Ast, 1.2 Stl,0.9 Blcks, FG 45.8, FT 82.6, 3pm 1.4
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Old 02-15-2007, 03:31 PM   #6
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

keep josh
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Old 02-17-2007, 05:26 PM   #7
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

I am an owner of both of these guys right now and actually picked up wallace right when he came back form injury by trading AK47. So far hes been huge!! I actually look forward to seeing his stats. However, Howard is just a second and third option down in Dallas. He gives you close to 20 every night, but he doesnt seem to be pulling down the boards and he really doesnt get many assists. He used to be more of an all around stat player, but since Dirk has emerged into a really superior player now, hes seemed to have dropped slightly in value in my opinion. In the end, I like Wallace when hes healthy.
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Old 02-17-2007, 11:49 PM   #8
BigAl
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

Quote:
Originally Posted by nkjordan23
I am an owner of both of these guys right now and actually picked up wallace right when he came back form injury by trading AK47. So far hes been huge!! I actually look forward to seeing his stats. However, Howard is just a second and third option down in Dallas. He gives you close to 20 every night, but he doesnt seem to be pulling down the boards and he really doesnt get many assists. He used to be more of an all around stat player, but since Dirk has emerged into a really superior player now, hes seemed to have dropped slightly in value in my opinion. In the end, I like Wallace when hes healthy.

Im sorry but I have to strongly disagree with a few points here. Although I completely agree that Wallace has been the better contributer over the past 10 games, lets look at the big picture (season). Wallace is on a tear right now which could be viewed as a "streak" considering his play during the first couple months. Conversely, Howard has been the model of consistency.

Next point. Howard is the number 2 option in Dallas. There is no question about it. He is no where near number 3. In fact, in most first quarters of games, he is the number one option (an Avery strategy). Im lucky to live in Dallas and have the ability to watch every Mavs game. Oh, also, Dirk emerged into a 'really superior player' about 2-3 years ago.

In fact lets look at the stats I posted above. Howards stats over the past 10 games are nearly identical to his season averages. Only difference is that his blocks are down a bit (over the past 10) and his FT% and 3pm are up. This is yet another indication of his consistency. Im not sure why you mentioned 'Dirk's emergence' as a contributing factor to a decline in Howard, when his last 10 prove there is no decline from his seasonal averages. With Howard, you get what you expect.


If we use Howards line as the benchmark we can see that Wallace has randomly dipped below and risen above Howards standard line. Of course we can all agree that Wallace has spent the majority of the season thus far below Howards stat line, which again, may lead some to believe the last 10 or so games for Wallace is a 'streak'.

I would love Wallace to be this good for the rest of the season (I have him on 3 teams), but I think Howard is the dependable rock.

Also, something to keep in mind. Wallace is generally the number 1 guy in Charlotte. Howard is putting up better seasonal averages as the number 2 guy in Dallas. If Dirk goes down or gets into foul trouble (which I admit is rare) all the sudden Howard's ceiling raises.

Last edited by BigAl : 02-17-2007 at 11:51 PM.
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Old 02-18-2007, 10:07 PM   #9
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

First off, nobody is denying howe good howard is. I understand you watch all the dallas games and yada yada yada....but if you look at dirk since the last 15 games or so, the guy is dishing out crqazy assists and enar triple double numbers on a nightly basis now. Thats where the "superior players" come in. Last year, he was in line with Brand, Bosh, and some of the other solid big guys. Now he ahs supassed those guys and is in the category of Wade and Kobe in terms of Fantasy value. Im not an idiot so dont act likemy statements were foolish. I see thw stat lines and see they are similar for dirk over the last few years. Im talking about this season, right here, right now. Dirk is a top 5 player. He wasnt before. As for Howard, he can be a 3rd option when terry decides to drop 20 or 25. It doesnt happen all the time, but its always the possiblity. I come from Detroit so i know how this sort of system works. Some nights, Billups will give you thirty, and sometimes sheed will give you 12. Other nights it is the reverse. Thats the point i am making. As for Wallace on Charlotte, hes the man right now. Plain and simple. Will he keep it up? Nobody said he would, but if he stays injury free, id look out for him to do some serious damage in the fantasy world. Again i stated i liked a healthy wallace over howard, but that doesnt mean howards value is any less. I stated he is a solid player. I am an owner. I see his stats every single night so i know what hes been getting. Id say he gives me a BIG game every 3rd or 4th game. The others in between.....lets just say near average which is fine. But you will NEVER see him give you a night that Gerald wallace does when he goes off. Never!
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Old 02-18-2007, 11:46 PM   #10
BigAl
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

Please dont say that Dirk was in line with Brand and Bosh last year. He was a league above them. We are talking about the guy that was number 3 in the MVP voting last year. No offense, but this sounds like typical talk from people in other areas that only catch highlights and not games.

Over the past 10 games Dirk has had a few outstanding games as far as assists go (freakish things do happen sometimes). But if you take the average over the past 10 games, his assists are 3.4 per game. His season average is 3.3. There has been no 'emerging' or 'surging' on Dirk's part. We shouldnt be taking a few outstanding games out of context, that a certain player has emerged in a certain area and will all the sudden become consistent for the remainder of their season. In case you were wondering his scoring average over the past 10 is 26.0. His seasonal average is 25.3. My point is that Dirk is what he is. An elite NBA that players are constantly compared to and a contender for the MVP every year now. He is the model of consistency. But this topic and thread isnt about Dirk, its about Howard and Wallace.

So bridging the gap between Dirk and Howard, my point was, that although you see this so called 'explosion' from Dirk, Howard's numbers havent changed at all. Meaning that when you said that Dirk's emergence will make Howard's performance suffer, is not accurate. There is no statistical data to prove otherwise.

Again, Howard is not the 3rd option. You say that Howard is the 3rd option when Terry decides to drop in 20 or 25. Terry has scored 20+ in 13 games out of 53 this year. 4 of those 13 games Howard also scored 20+. We take those out and we have 9. 4 of the remaining 9 games (of 20+ Terry scoring) Howard wasnt even playing. So we can conclude that there has only been 5 games out of 53 thus far this season, in which both Terry and Howard were in the game, and Terry scored 20+ with Howard scoring under 20.

Nowitzki 20+ games:41, FG% 50.1, 17.3 FGA
Howard 20+ games:22, FG% 45.8, 15.9 FGA
Terry 20+ games:13, FG% 44.9, 13.0 FGA

Now if you want to believe that Howards spot as number 2 isnt set in stone then that is up to you. You have to realize that someone that watches every Dallas game (and even most that dont) can easily see Howard's emergence this year as the number 2 option on the Mavs. Now if we were talking last season, then I would agree with you. But the stats nor the eyes lie. Who went to the All-Star game? Howard or Terry?

At the end of the day it doesnt really matter though. Howard is playing more consistently than Wallace where as Wallace has been on a tear as of late. If you want to roll the dice that his (Wallace) streak will continue for the rest of the season then roll the dice (who knows, maybe he will), but odds are consistency will win out. It always does. Thats why most fantasy players have the mantra to always get the best player in any trade. Because the best player provides consistency.

If you want to talk about the every 3rd or 4th game for Wallace is a huge game then I would like to know your definition of "go off". What about the other 2-3 games that week that you get sub-Howard numbers? As a side note, Wallace has scored 20+, 13 times this year. Conversely, he has scored under 10 points, 12 times. In case anyone was wondering about Howard, he has scored under 10, 3 times. Me personally, I will always side with consistency rather than a player's potential every 3rd or 4th game. Of course, not all fantasy value is based on scoring.

Howard has improved in 5 of 8 cats from last year to this year. Wallace 4. But Wallace's 4 come with an asterick because Im considering 3pm going up .1, assists going up .3, and points .8. Howards improvements are definitely more significant (1.1 3pm, 9% FT, 1 rpg, .5 blks, 3.7 points).

Now if you like a healthy Wallace over Howard then that is your call. But doesnt "health" also play a role in value? We all agree that Howard's seasonal stats are better, but isnt Howard's health better too (based on history)? Wallace averages 52.6 games per year, Howard, 67.3. A lot of people are saying they would take a 'healthy' Wallace. Question. When has Wallace ever been healthy? Isnt that a paradox?Thats like saying, I would take a Dodge Viper that gets 25 mpg and seats 4. Like the fuel efficient Viper, the healthy Wallace doesnt exist.

With all of these stats and pieces of evidence, why would anyone pick Wallace unless they expected his current 'streak' to last (although historically it wont). As a side note, look at Wallace's games from Nov. 1 through Dec. 14 (22 games) vs. Dec. 16 through Feb. 14 (23 games). I think we can agree that the second half are significantly stronger than the first half. But that Dec. 16th game (and on) it looks as if a switch was flipped. Keep in mind he has missed 7 games, all within the superior second half. He missed 0 games in the poor first half. My point is that it doesnt seem like his health (or lack of health) is having much impact on his stats. his best games are right before and after his injury!

Right here and right now (past 10 games), Wallace is the better pick, no question. If we were 10 games into the season I would go for Wallace over Howard. However, any person that goes out and trades for Wallace, arent going to get his last 10 games. Looking at his history, they don't know what they are going to get. Howard is the more sure thing.

I never said your comments were foolish. I said I disagreed with them and then I stated why. If you want to take what I said personally then that is your choice, the point of this thread is not to argue, its to prevent all facts and angles to the person with the question, and then let them decide what is best for them.

Having said all of this, if you still want to take Wallace, then that is up to you. We will just have to agree to disagree.

Last edited by BigAl : 02-19-2007 at 11:11 AM.
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Old 02-19-2007, 09:54 AM   #11
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

I agree with most of what you said, and no, i am not trying to start an argument. A disagreement is a disagreement. In my opinion, since i have been doing fantasy for a few years, Dirk was never a top 5 pick in any of my leagues until this year. He was definitely a first rounder, but now he seems to have taken the lwading role from a lot of guys. I wouldnt laugh at the statement that he was up there with Brand last year. Do you remember Brand stats last year? He was like a top 5 or 6 player i believe and this year is a top 10 player despite is slight dips in averages. That was no diss to Dirk. But again, i agree with the majority of your points. Its hard to get around the injuries with wallace, but fantasy is sometimes about taking chances if you want to move up. I know the stats dont lie when it comes to terry and howard and can see you do your research, but coming from detroit I see the same exact things happen night in and night out. We have our consistent 25ppg scorer like you do, and then we have 3 guys who can all do the same whenever they decide to. Howard will still get his, no doubt. I just like wallace at this point. ANd to reiterate what i said before about taking chances. Taking a chance on Wallace has pushed me ahead in my league. THats part of my reasoning. It may not keep me there, but im hoping that "switch" stays flipped on and that viper continues to get 25mpg haha...i liked those analogies. Still...i see your point as well so i guess it depends on the strcture of your league, what system you use, what positions you need since wallace covers SG,SF,PF positions which is a very nice asset. Either way, i like both options.
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Old 02-19-2007, 02:55 PM   #12
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

And just for the record, Brand had more fantasy points last year than Dirk in my league. He beat him by about 150 points total depending on your league structure. But thats just total points including pts, rbds, assists, blocks, steals, TO, fouls.
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Old 02-19-2007, 05:24 PM   #13
BigAl
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

Quote:
Originally Posted by nkjordan23
And just for the record, Brand had more fantasy points last year than Dirk in my league. He beat him by about 150 points total depending on your league structure. But thats just total points including pts, rbds, assists, blocks, steals, TO, fouls.

I was more referring to Dirk's real world value, but a similar case can be made for his fantasy value. An assumption was made that Dirk was on a surge as of late when in actuality he was just living up to his normal averages.

If we are talking about fantasy value, then Im not so sure Im on board with the idea that Dirk wasn't in the same league as Brand last year (he was definitely way better than Bosh). Brand gets 5 and Dirk gets 4 (of 9 cats). Although there is a big difference (1.5) in blocks between Dirk and Brand last year, there is also a big difference (1.4) in 3pm between the two. The FG% is 4% in Brands favor, but the FT% is nearly 13% in Dirks favor. Steals are .7 vs. 1.0 for Brand and points are up by a couple for Dirk. Dirk barely edges in TO as well. Nearly inconsequential. I really didnt count fouls since most fantasy formats dont.

Dirk's stats are nearly identical to last years right now. The differences are that his FG% is up 2% this year, his rebounds are up .4, and his assists are up .5, but, his 3pm are down .4, his points are down 1.3, his blocks are down .2. Not much difference between the two seasons. So Im not sure why this year Dirk is being categorized as having emerged. I think its more like, Brand declined.

Last edited by BigAl : 02-19-2007 at 05:27 PM.
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Old 02-19-2007, 06:23 PM   #14
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

Ok....well like i said in an earlier post: all leagues are structured differently. Last year in my league, Dirk was ranked 8th overall in total points and this year at the half way mark, he is 4th. Little bit of a difference there to me. And on another note, it makes a difference to me and maybe not everybody else when a player is beating other players in total points such as Kobe & Marion (who was drafted first in many leagues). I would say that is a player on a new level in my league. I'd give any player more respect when hes beating out players who are valued as top5's every single season. If you want to constantly go back and forth over the "emerging" statement and throw out stats over and over, thats fine. But this is a fantasy basketball forum and every league is structured differently. You saying somebody is more valuable than somebody else may be comepletely wrong in somebody elses league.
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Old 02-19-2007, 08:35 PM   #15
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Default Re: Gerald Wallace or Josh Howard

Quote:
Originally Posted by nkjordan23
Ok....well like i said in an earlier post: all leagues are structured differently. Last year in my league, Dirk was ranked 8th overall in total points and this year at the half way mark, he is 4th. Little bit of a difference there to me. And on another note, it makes a difference to me and maybe not everybody else when a player is beating other players in total points such as Kobe & Marion (who was drafted first in many leagues). I would say that is a player on a new level in my league. I'd give any player more respect when hes beating out players who are valued as top5's every single season. If you want to constantly go back and forth over the "emerging" statement and throw out stats over and over, thats fine. But this is a fantasy basketball forum and every league is structured differently. You saying somebody is more valuable than somebody else may be comepletely wrong in somebody elses league.

You are absolutely correct. Different league formats can dictate different player values. No argument here.

Since the originator of this thread never specified which format he or she was in, I make my comments based on the two most common formats (the common 8 and 9 cat roto/H2H, Pts, Ast, Blk, Stl, 3pm, Reb, FG%, FT%, and/or TO).

Im looking at my posts and not seeing where I am redundant with my use of stats. In fact, it seems, like with each post, I provide different stats that most people are not aware of. I apologize if my use of stats is overwhelming, but stats generally account for the basis of most fantasy sports transactions.

Last edited by BigAl : 02-19-2007 at 08:39 PM.
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