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Old 06-21-2013, 12:38 AM   #16
Zodiac
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack
I'd still be very surprised if Noel doesn't go No. 1. I'd be absolutely shocked if Len was the pick. That has smokescreen written all over it.

I'm going to guess the Top 5 will look like this...

1. Cleveland - Nerlens Noel
2. Orlando - Ben McLemore or Trey Burke
3. Washington - Otto Porter Jr.
4. Charlotte - Alex Len
5. Phoenix - Ben McLemore or Victor Oladipo

The guy I could see falling further than people think is Ben McLemore if Orlando opts for Burke or someone else at #2. Neither Washington or Charlotte are taking him and I think Phoenix leans toward Oladipo.

Word is McLemore has not had very good workouts and his advanced metrics are very pedestrian.

I agree Noel seems like a perfect fit in Cleveland but Alex Len has so much upside to his game.

I think MCW will be the steal of the draft though, extremely talented passer with a nice touch around the rim and some mid-range ability
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Old 06-21-2013, 01:17 AM   #17
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Zodiac
I agree Noel seems like a perfect fit in Cleveland but Alex Len has so much upside to his game.

I think MCW will be the steal of the draft though, extremely talented passer with a nice touch around the rim and some mid-range ability
I think Noel has more upside than Len. Noel has the potential to be the best defensive player in the NBA. As an 18-year-old, he led the nation in blocks with an absurd 4.5 per game and even had 12 blocks against a Top 15 team (Ole Miss)... And he was also second in the SEC in steals (2.1 per game).

On top of that, he's an elite athlete who finishes very well around the basket with either hand. He had no jumper or post game, but that can be taught. His athleticism, length and timing on the defensive end can not be taught.

To me, assuming his medical checks out, Noel is both the safest pick and the one with the most upside. At worst, he's going to be Larry Sanders 2.0, which is pretty damn good. Great rim protectors are hard to come by in this league. He's the best to come out in a long time.

On top of all that, he kills in advanced stats and seems to have a good head on his shoulders.


MCW is sort of an enigma for me. He obviously has great length for the position and was a great defensive player at Syracuse, but sometimes it's hard to tell if a guy is a great individual defender at SU or if they're just a product of that ridiculous matchup zone system, there. His jumper also obviously needs a lot of work.

I'm also sometimes leery of guys who don't contribute until late in their college careers.

Still, MCW seems to have a nice set of tools and a good frame. Interesting prospect for sure.
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Old 06-21-2013, 05:17 AM   #18
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack
I'd still be very surprised if Noel doesn't go No. 1. I'd be absolutely shocked if Len was the pick. That has smokescreen written all over it.

They have the top pick. Do they need a smokescreen?

I'm going to guess the Top 5 will look like this...

Quote:
1. Cleveland - Nerlens Noel
2. Orlando - Ben McLemore or Trey Burke
3. Washington - Otto Porter Jr.
4. Charlotte - Alex Len
5. Phoenix - Ben McLemore or Victor Oladipo

The guy I could see falling further than people think is Ben McLemore if Orlando opts for Burke or someone else at #2. Neither Washington or Charlotte are taking him and I think Phoenix leans toward Oladipo.

Word is McLemore has not had very good workouts and his advanced metrics are very pedestrian.

Doesn't sound like Orlando wants Burke despite pg being their biggest need obviously. McLemore is out of shape. Teams aren't too impressed with that.

Look for the Jazz with their extra pick to move up. They've worked out at least 3 guys projected higher than their top pick, Zeller, McCollom(who I think should be their guy if they can get him) and MCW.
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Old 06-21-2013, 04:46 PM   #19
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Xiao Yao You
They have the top pick. Do they need a smokescreen?

This is just how the Cavs operate. They did the same thing in 2011 with the top pick. Even though Kyrie was the obvious choice, he didn't even know for sure he was going No. 1 until they called his name at the podium.

Thing is, the Cavs also have three other picks in this draft, which they will almost certainly use to move up, possibly into the late lottery.

By keeping other franchises on their toes, they are able to obscure their real targets, not just for the No. 1 pick, but for that second First Round pick, which may end up being No. 13 owned by the Mavs.

Also, it makes teams think that maybe they have to move up to get the guy they really want. It could open up potential trade possibilities.

Point is, the Cavs have nothing to gain by releasing their real intentions. There are possible positives to throwing teams off. To be totally honest, I think they enjoy keeping everyone (especially the media) in the dark to a certain extent, as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiao Yao You
Doesn't sound like Orlando wants Burke despite pg being their biggest need obviously. McLemore is out of shape. Teams aren't too impressed with that.

Look for the Jazz with their extra pick to move up. They've worked out at least 3 guys projected higher than their top pick, Zeller, McCollom(who I think should be their guy if they can get him) and MCW.

Interestingly enough, I sort of see Burke as a Jameer Nelson caliber player on the next level. Maybe a little bit better, but not worth the No. 2 overall pick in what I think is an underrated draft class (much in the same way 2011 was underrated).

I'm not big on McLemore. His advanced stats are very pedestrian and he has trouble creating his own offense. He also looks to me like a guy who can only play the 2 on the next level. He doesn't have the ball-handling skills to spend time at point and his smallish frame will not allow him to guard the 3.

Versatility is huge in today's NBA and I just don't see it in McLemore.

Who do you see Orlando going with?


I think Zeller has become a real bargain. Before this past college season started, he was considered a sure-fire Top 3 pick. He had sort of a rough Sophomore year, but he also had a lot of focus on him from opposing teams and, even when he wasn't making the play, that attention allowed Indiana to be one of the best teams in the country.

DraftExpress has him going 11th to the Sixers. That would be a huge bargain, imo.


One last note on the Cavs... I think the lack of buzz around the Cavs and Otto Porter Jr. actually increases the likelihood that he's in the mix at No. 1. As we know from the last two drafts, the names that are "out there" for the Cavs are almost never the guys they take. Waiters didn't even visit Cleveland last year. Thompson shocked everyone at No. 4.

Porter is maybe the best all-around prospect in this draft, he plays an absolute position of need, he seems to be the kind of high character/hard worker that the Cavs have focused on filling the team with, he has terrific advanced metrics, which the Cavs notoriously put a lot of stock in... If Noel has a medical red flag, he is actually the guy I'd expect them to go with, not Len.

Don't be shocked if an article comes out 24 hours before the draft that the Cavs have serious interest in Porter, just like what happened with Waiters last year.
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Old 06-21-2013, 06:55 PM   #20
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack
Who do you see Orlando going with?

They need a one and can probably have anyone they won't a few picks down. I'd look to trade the pick.
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Old 06-21-2013, 11:11 PM   #21
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Xiao Yao You
They need a one and can probably have anyone they won't a few picks down. I'd look to trade the pick.
I know they'll probably look to trade the pick, but I think it is going to be hard to do this year, unless something weird happens like the Cavs don't take Noel (still think that happens). If Noel is there, that could generate some serious interest in moving up. If he's not, I don't see it happening.

In other words, if they stay at 2, then what? It has to be McLemore or Burke, right? That seems to be the consensus amongst mocks (that I trust, at least).
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Old 06-22-2013, 11:07 AM   #22
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

I wonder if the Thunder would move up for Len?

Westbrook
Thabo
Durant
Ibaka
Len
6th: K-Mart

That has potential to be dirty. I assume Jeremy Lamb and the 12 pick could probably get as high as 4?
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Old 06-22-2013, 12:32 PM   #23
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by UConnCeltics
I wonder if the Thunder would move up for Len?

Westbrook
Thabo
Durant
Ibaka
Len
6th: K-Mart

That has potential to be dirty. I assume Jeremy Lamb and the 12 pick could probably get as high as 4?
don't think they'll give up Lamb but PJ3 and the 12 could get them that pick
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Old 06-23-2013, 05:44 PM   #24
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

I've honestly had a feeling that Otto Porter would go to the Cavs at #1 since the lottery. Perfect fit for the Cavs because of the way he can fit offensively with Ivring/Waiters and he gives them a big, long defender on the wing that they will need if they want to be a playoff team in the future. He is a pretty "safe" pick imo but still has a lot of great upside.

Given the Cavs tendency to ignore conventional wisdom, I would almost be surprised if the pick wasn't Porter.
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Old 06-24-2013, 12:11 AM   #25
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Jailblazers7
I've honestly had a feeling that Otto Porter would go to the Cavs at #1 since the lottery. Perfect fit for the Cavs because of the way he can fit offensively with Ivring/Waiters and he gives them a big, long defender on the wing that they will need if they want to be a playoff team in the future. He is a pretty "safe" pick imo but still has a lot of great upside.

Given the Cavs tendency to ignore conventional wisdom, I would almost be surprised if the pick wasn't Porter.
Been saying that for a while. If there are concerns about Noel's longterm healthy, I think he will be the pick.

The lack of media hype around him being the No. 1 pick tells me that he's probably being looked at very closely by the Cavs. Since Grant took over, it has become obvious that they like playing games with the media and throw of other franchises as to their true intentions.

The guy NOT being talked about is the guy to really watch out for. Who had Thompson or Waiters to the Cavs at No. 4 in their mocks in 2011-12? Answer? No one.
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Old 06-24-2013, 07:53 AM   #26
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

I loved Porter as a fit for Cleveland when they were drafting three, then they moved up, and it seemed like too high, but the more I look at it, I agree that there's no reason not to take him if you still believe he's the best fit. The only other options are two bigs with health concerns, and who have their limitations even when healthy. And McLemore or Olidipo both undermine last years pick in Waiters, even if I think both are better prospects, it's not as if it's by some huge margin. And both of those guys have some questions anyway, and who wants to draft a pure wing at one anyway.
Plus with the depth among bigs this year, who's to say you can't find something at 19 who while maybe a longer shot than Noel or Len, at least has some comparible skills. Adams has tons of potential, Olynek has a diverse offensive game, Deng will defend the PnR and knock down elbow jumpers on PnP, Gobert is young and longer than anyone ever even thought I've lost interest. My favorite now is Lucas Nogeira, the young Brazilian kid, who someone has to explain to me how Noel is the top overall prospect, and this kid is like a fringe first rounder on most boards, when they're such incredibly similar prospects. There's a ton of bigs in this draft.
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Old 06-24-2013, 01:53 PM   #27
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Thorpesaurous
I loved Porter as a fit for Cleveland when they were drafting three, then they moved up, and it seemed like too high, but the more I look at it, I agree that there's no reason not to take him if you still believe he's the best fit. The only other options are two bigs with health concerns, and who have their limitations even when healthy. And McLemore or Olidipo both undermine last years pick in Waiters, even if I think both are better prospects, it's not as if it's by some huge margin. And both of those guys have some questions anyway, and who wants to draft a pure wing at one anyway.
Plus with the depth among bigs this year, who's to say you can't find something at 19 who while maybe a longer shot than Noel or Len, at least has some comparible skills. Adams has tons of potential, Olynek has a diverse offensive game, Deng will defend the PnR and knock down elbow jumpers on PnP, Gobert is young and longer than anyone ever even thought I've lost interest. My favorite now is Lucas Nogeira, the young Brazilian kid, who someone has to explain to me how Noel is the top overall prospect, and this kid is like a fringe first rounder on most boards, when they're such incredibly similar prospects. There's a ton of bigs in this draft.

Yes a ton! With next years draft potentially being what is hyped up to be, do you think teams like the bulls who is trying to win now, trade next years pick (they also got that Charlotte pick which is top10 protected but I believe isn't the year after) so they can dangle potential 3 first round picks including this years first for a potential trade to bring in a victor oladipo? I know I'm thinking nba2k but it's fun to consider, imagine that bulls lineup with victor... Wow! And with mirotic coming on board the yr after.

Maybe with the suns if he's still available at #5.

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Old 06-24-2013, 02:26 PM   #28
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

^ wow just after I write that, I read this.. http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/b...p&id=60177&wjb

I would also throw in this years 20th pick to make it happen.. But I wouldn't do it until draft day to make sure oladipo is available and throw a smoke screen at the wiz and tell em we're targeting Noel or mclemore or Len.
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Old 06-24-2013, 08:35 PM   #29
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

I think a draft of Porter and Dieng or Nogeira is about as good as the Cavs can get. You get Nogeira as a raw developing shot blocker type big for wayyy cheaper than Noel which involves way less risk and you grab Porter who is a great fit with really good upside. Porter is the kind of player they need on the wing if they want to be a serious playoff team in the future.

I've been kind of eyeing Nogeira for the Sixers at 11. Partly because I really like him and partly because he will be a work in progress. I kind of want the Sixers to suck next season because the 2014 draft is going to be loaded.
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Old 06-25-2013, 10:04 AM   #30
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Default Re: NBA Draft Discussion

Someone blurted out a comp somewhere I was reading yesterday on Noel, and it stuck for me. Theo Ratliff. Most of us probably remember Theo after he had legally changed his name to Theo Ratliff's Expiring Contract, but he was a pretty good player, which is how he got that big contract. 10/7/3 at his peak, being one of the more intimidating rim protectors in the league. I'm not sure that's worth a 1 overall though.
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