In my experience as a fantasy football player, trying to hit on obscure RB picks after the 4th round is extremely hard. And, trying to fill both starting spots after not taking a RB in the first 2-3 rounds is almost impossible.
In my experiences RB seem easier to fill...because they are so injury prone there are new ones always popping up. take Fred Jackson and Pierce on my team for example...
Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack
Absolutely take the RB. It's not just about how many points they score, it's about maximizing your point potential. After you fill that RB1 spot, there is only one more starting spot you need to fill with a RB... And, in my experiences, there's plenty of quality TEs left after the first few rounds. That isn't the case with RBs, imo.
This isn't just done haphazardly. When you prepare for the draft, you look at all the positions and figure out who you like and when you might be able to get them. I knew I was going after Cameron in the later rounds and had a good feeling about him as a productive fantasy player.
On the flipside, I looked at the RB position and saw a barren wasteland after the first few rounds. That's what dictates the order of importance when it comes to positions.
to me it absolutely is all about "how many points they score"
If I knew ahead of time that by the end of the year Graham would outscore Adrian Peterson by 30 points?...GIVE ME GRAHAM
you are right that the wavier system right now does seem to be sparse in the RB department in comparison to the other positions, I'll say that. There are still 2 RBs that will get purchased this week though...if I was really really desperate then I could find a player without trading. RB2s are low scoring right now in general though, it isn't a position that is going to make or break you the same way that QB or WR does.
and I had the same draft plans like you had for Cameron...Chris Ivory was the next Spiller to me...(looks like I was wrong)...so I felt I could wait on RB because of him.
If that were the case, you surely would have gone QB with your first two picks. They generally score the most points.
Why not just take Brees/Rodgers? That's where your whole argument is flawed. You DO take positions into account when you draft... Just different positions when compared to the rest of the league.
I did a similar strategy to what you're talking about a few years ago. I went Calvin/Nicks with my first two picks. My thought process at the time was, I'd rather be the best in the league at a position and maybe a little weaker somewhere else as opposed to just OK across the board. I ended up finishing 2nd in the league.
However, it all depends on the year and your draft position. That season, I thought it was a pretty deep RB class and I was picking 10th. This year, RB is even more weak than usual and I was picking 5th. I don't think there's one set strategy which should be employed every season. You have to switch things up based on a lot of variables.
PER STARTING POSITION obviously
you're right if I was drafting just on points scored alone it would go QB, QB, QB, QB
once you have your QB you can move on...
just like once you have 3 WRs you can move on...
also, as Jail pointed out earlier, I was able to wait a round on QB just knowing ahead of time everyone would make a mad dash for RBs in round 1. If the trend was not that way then I would have taken Rodgers round 1, because in my eyes he has the best odds to be the highest scoring fantasy player period. Much like Peyton right now.
in this draft I had already taken 2 WRs (Calvin and Andre) and I had not taken a single RB...when my pick came I had the option of Reggie Wayne or Darren McFadden...Wayne I had projected to score nearly 2x as much as DMC throughout the year because DMC won't play 16 games...I still had one starting WR postion to fill
why the hell would I take DMC there instead of Wayne when I have Wayne projected to crush him in points?...just for the sake of filling up a RB roster spot?...that is flawed logic in my eyes
(btw I know DMC has barely outscored Wayne so far, but I promise you that is not how it will be at the end of the year)
Last edited by -p.tiddy- : 09-25-2013 at 12:35 PM.
You want to see something really odd? I'm not sure what this says and I guess we could argue about it from both sides of our respective positions, but check this out...
I've been totaling up our numbers through the first three weeks just to compare and contrast since we had totally opposite approaches to the draft. Here's what I found...
I already said this, but I'll repeat it... I picked two RBs in my first three picks. Your first two came in the 6th and 7th rounds, respectively. Still, your starters have outscored mine by an average of 16.3-10.5 through the first three weeks.
That's very bizarre, but it doesn't end there...
Though you picked your three starting receivers in the first four rounds and I didn't take my second receiver until the 4th round, my three starting receivers have outscored your three starters through the first three weeks pretty convincingly...
Julio Jones / Wes Welker / Antonio Brown = 55.6 point average
Calvin Johnson / Andre Johnson / Reggie Wayne = 42.4 point average
So, things are pretty backwards thus far. It's odd.
this is just odd luck and will could flip by end of year...although Julio and Welker look like monsters this year, Brown had one amazing week and that is it so not sure on him. Hell you may have very well created the best WR core. Will it be enough to make up for Stafford vs. Rodgers though?
and me and you are a tiny sample size to make any conclusions really...players get hurt, etc
real legit conclusions could only be made if we did this hundreds of times and averaged out the results...very much like poker where pros can get unlucky and lose but over hundreds of games their good odds always pay off for them.