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Old 10-12-2013, 01:21 PM   #1
Carbine
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Default Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

Obviously if a team runs the ball a lot and controls the clock, their will be less possessions to score and gain yards for both teams in that game.

On the flip side, a high paced offense will lead to more possessions/plays and therefor have more chances to score points but also let the opposition have more possessions, thus creating more chances for the defense to give up more yards/points.

Points scored and allowed per possession gives a greater viewpoint to how efficient the offense is at scoring points and how good they are at stopping points being scored.

Top 10 Points per possession:

1: Denver 3.77

2: Colts 2.73

3. Cowboys 2.71

4. Packers 2.57

5. Bears 2.46

6. Falcons 2.39

7. Saints 2.31

8. Chargers 2.31

9. Seahawks 2.28

10. Vikings 2.25


BOTTOM FIVE:

1. Jags 0.77

2. Bucs 0.92

3. Giants 1.34

4. Steelers 1.44

5. Texans 1.45

(Pats are 6th worst at 1.46)
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Old 10-12-2013, 01:23 PM   #2
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

Top 10 Defenses per possession:

1. Chiefs 0.85

2. Pats 1.11

3. Panthers 1.29

4. Saints 1.3

5. Bucs 1.4

6. Seahawks 1.42

7. Browns 1.42

8. Colts 1.48

9. Bengals 1.5

10. Titans 1.51


BOTTOM 5:

1. Giants 2.75

2. Eagles 2.61

3. Jags 2.59

4. Chargers 2.48

5. Texans 2.48
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Old 10-12-2013, 02:39 PM   #3
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

lol at the giants and jags.
probs to the colts
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Old 10-12-2013, 11:55 PM   #4
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

The Giants are a good example. Don't you think their league-high (by a margin of 11) 23 turnovers has caused their defense to give up a lot of points per possession? I can't imagine all those turnovers led to very good field position.
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Old 10-13-2013, 12:04 AM   #5
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

Quote:
Originally Posted by raid09
The Giants are a good example. Don't you think their league-high (by a margin of 11) 23 turnovers has caused their defense to give up a lot of points per possession? I can't imagine all those turnovers led to very good field position.

The average starting field position for opposing offenses against the Giants is the 33 yard line....last in the league.

However, Tampa....one of the stingiest defenses per possession....start at the 30.5 yard line.

It's a valid point you brought up. The stat is not without flaws....but it's the least flawed stat out their for ranking offenses and defenses, IMO, as a quick glance stat.
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Old 10-13-2013, 12:14 AM   #6
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

Saints 4th in D . Hell of a ****ing turnaround.
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Old 10-13-2013, 01:16 PM   #7
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

Where did you get these numbers Carbine?
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Old 10-15-2013, 01:15 PM   #8
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

Updated:

Top 10 offense points per possession:

1) Broncos 3.58

2) Cowboys 2.77

3) Colts 2.47

4) Bears 2.46

5) Falcons 2.39

6) Saints 2.30

7) Chargers 2.29

8) Packers 2.28

9) Seahawks 2.24

10) Lions 2.19



Top 10 Defenses:

1) Chiefs 0.79 (wow)

2) Panthers 1.26

3) Pats 1.29

4) Seahawks 1.42

5) 49ers 1.48

6) Saints 1.49

7) Ravens 1.55

8) Colts 1.56

9) Titans 1.58

10) Bengals 1.59
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Old 10-16-2013, 12:38 AM   #9
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

It is a lot more valid than total yards/pts. Still, it is hard to trust any stat that doesn't take into effect the defenses you are facing.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:23 PM   #10
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

Through week 7:

Offense:

1) Broncos 3.27

2) NO 2.4

3) Chargers 2.4

4) ATL 2.32

5) IND 2.31

6) GB 2.3

7) CAR 2.24

8) SEA 2.23

9) CHI 2.20

10) DAL 2.19



Defense:

1) KC 0.87

2) CAR 1.25

3) NE 1.28

4) SEA 1.34

5) NO 1.38

6) SF 1.49

7) TEN 1.52

8) BAL 1.58

9) CIN 1.64

10) Jets 1.65


Carolina is top 7 on both sides of the ball. That could be a sign of more wins to come for them.

SEA & NO both have impressive cumulative rankings as well, with 7 for NO (2nd in offense, 5th n defense) and SEA at 12.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:26 PM   #11
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

damn the Eagles scored 3 points last week, that is ONE POSSESSION the entire game, and it still didn't off set the scoring that Peyton did in Dallas...
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:35 PM   #12
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

To give an idea of how dominant the KC defense has been at 0.87, last few years of leaders have put up:

1.31
1.19
1.24
1.04
1.11
1.39
1.05
1.02
1.16
1.13
0.91 (2002 Bucs defense)
0.96
0.81 (2000 Ravens defense)


And adjusting for the difference in eras....the league average defense gave up 1.66 in 2000 compared to 1.8 now....so you could argue the 0.87 of the Chiefs is on par to the 0.81 of the 2000 Ravens
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Old 11-14-2013, 08:58 PM   #13
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

Offense:

1) Broncos 3.16

2) NO 2.65

3) GB 2.33

4) SD 2.3

5) SEA 2.3

6) CAR 2.22

7) CHI 2.19

8) DET 2.16

9) DAL 2.11

10) IND 2.07



Defense:

1) KC 0.96

2) Carolina 1.13

3) SEA 1.35

4) SF 1.4

5) NE 1.42

6) CIN 1.43

7) NO 1.5

8) TEN 1.54

9) BAL 1.56

10) ARI 1.69


SEA, CAR & NO all have a collective rating below 10. It's going to be a dog fight to see who gets out of the NFC if this keeps up. They're clearly the best three all-around teams so far.
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Old 11-14-2013, 09:10 PM   #14
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

Seahawks
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Old 11-15-2013, 12:50 PM   #15
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Default Re: Points per possession = a better way to evaluate offense/defense?

I knew the Panthers defense has been amazing this year; but was not aware our offense was ranked so highly. If we keep that up look out for us in Janurary.
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