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Old 03-11-2007, 07:19 PM   #1
i seen hippos
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Arrow NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

I'll post some of mine in a bit. If anyone wants to preview a game, feel free to do it here. It will be interesting to get our takes on how the bigger games will go down.

Last edited by i seen hippos : 03-11-2007 at 08:25 PM.
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Old 03-11-2007, 07:36 PM   #2
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

East Region:

8. Marquette vs. 9. Michigan State

This one is all about the perimeter players. Marquette has the advantage on offense because of the balanced scoring between James, McNeal and Matthews who average about 42 points between them per contest. Neitzel, Morgan and Walton average 37 between them, which isn't far behind, but 18 of those come from Neizel.

5 Keys:

1. How healthy is Jerel McNeal? Will Neitzel be forced to expend energy on the defensive end? That's a loss of a big scoring punch if he's not 100%.
2. Can Walton slow down James? He's come up big during the year, but his D will be needed more than ever. Same with Neitzel on McNeal.
3. Can Marquette knock down the outside shot? Fitzgerald is their only real threat behind the arc. Will that be enough if MSU clogs the lanes?
4. Michigan State's rebounding. For them to have any chance, they will need to show why they led the Big 10 in rebounding. Suton, Gray, Naymick and Ibok have to own the boards.
5. Crean vs. Izzo. Apprentice vs. future HoF teacher. Both are adept at getting the most out of their teams so who will have their team firing on all cylinders in 4 or 5 days?

Final thoughts: MSU finally has the defensive and rebounding toughness that was missing last year, but has less talent overall than recent years. Marquette's guards will play at a pace that MSU can't match. Neitzel will be heroic in the second half as usual, but it won't be enough.

Final Score: Marquette 67, MSU 60.
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Old 03-11-2007, 07:56 PM   #3
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

choosing against sparty? wow..
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Old 03-11-2007, 08:06 PM   #4
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

East Region:

7. Boston College vs. 10. Texas Tech

Zeno/Jackson in the backcourt for Texas Tech versus the big three for BC in Dudley/Rice/Marshall. Texas Tech has a lot of good three point shooters including Zeno and Jackson who are hitting at a rate of 45.2% and 43.5% respectively. Dudley is the only BC player to shoot the three at over 36% (almost 46%). This could be key, but BC likes to bang inside with Dudley and Marshall and Rice can hit big time bombs when it matters most. Zeno and Jackson are not afraid to penetrate either. Dora and Plefka will really have to control the defensive boards or Dudley will have a field day. This will not be a track meet if one thing is certain.

4 keys:

1. Jackson vs. Rice. Rice can't try to match what Jackson does on the court. Dudley has got to get all the touches early on. If Jackson can get Rice into foul trouble, BC is in a lot of trouble (ball handling, distributing and shooting wise).

2. Zeno vs. Dudley. Zeno is a 2 that can finish in the paint. Dudley is a 4 who can score on the perimeter. Which one is more agressive and gets the other team into foul trouble? Dudley can't fall in love with the outside shot, Zeno won't.

3. The forgotten bigs. Who's big men will step up? Will Dora play over his head inside for Tech or will Oates light it up from behind the arc to give BC that extra scoring punch?

4. Will this be Bob Knight's last NCAA tournament game?

Final Thoughts: Jackson and Zeno will be forced to do too much and on this night, the tandem of Dudley, Marshall and Rice's key shots will be too much for Tech to handle. Dudley will be dominant inside and Marshall will get his fair share of rebounds as well. It will be close as BC won't be running away from anyone, but BC is simply more consistent, stronger and has the best player on the court.

Final Score: BC 58, Texas Tech 53.

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Old 03-11-2007, 08:07 PM   #5
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

I'll do Illinois/VT later tonight.
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Old 03-11-2007, 09:39 PM   #6
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

hippos i was kidding about MSU getting raped by marquette

but i think if neitzel can play like he did against wisconsin the first time they played them michigan state could win this game.

final score : 71-68 MSU
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Old 03-11-2007, 09:43 PM   #7
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

I definitely feel like we have a shot. It's more like a 40% shot though.

If Neitzel is on fire and hitting three pointers we'll be alright. If he's not putting up the points then it falls on Morgan and Suton to save us....I'll take option A with a bit of option B thank you very much.
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Old 03-11-2007, 09:49 PM   #8
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

yeah suton dominated us (wisconsin) on the offensive rebounding.
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Old 03-12-2007, 02:25 AM   #9
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

Illinois v. Virginia Tech

Guards: Chester Frazier (7.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.4 apg) and Rich McBride (9.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.3 apg) v. Jamon Gordon (11.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.6 apg)/Zabian Dowdell (18 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.3 apg)

No one player typifies the Illini more than Chester Frazier: played hurt all year, outstanding defender, huge heart, makes a handful of terrific hustle plays every game....and is very limited offensively. However, he's not afraid to take- and make- big shots, and he is capable of heating up, hitting 5-of-9 threes en route to 21 points against Penn State, and scoring 17 points in a critical January win over Michigan State. Rich McBride is a one-trick pony as a scorer; if he heats up he's dangerous from as far as 30 feet out, but it doesn't happen nearly often enough and he's been ice cold of late. He's a very strong, very underrated defender, however, despite his athletic limitations.

Gordon and Dowdell were probably the second-best backcourt in the ACC this year behind Virginia's Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds, and one of the best in the entire country. Gordon's kind of like Chester Frazier with scoring ability, contributing in almost every facet of the game and stuffing the stat sheet across the board, and he's the head of an agressive Hokie defense and one of the best ballhawks in the nation, averaging nearly 3 steals a game.

Dowdell was a strong ACC POY candidate. Like Gordon, he's a prolific ballhawk at 2.2 swipes a game, and can score in a multitude of ways. He's strong and athletic enough to take almost anyone off the dribble (nearly 6 FTA a game) and though he prefers to attack, he can hit from deep (39% 3pt%).

EDGE: Big-time to Virginia Tech. As hard as he plays, Frazier has subpar vision and decision-making skills, especially compared to his Illinois point guard predecessors. Simply put, I fully expect Gordon take the ball away from him.


Forwards: Brian Randle (7.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.0 apg)/Warren Carter (13.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 41.1% 3pt.) v. A.D. Vassallo (11.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 44.1% 3pt)/Deron Washington (11.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.0 bpg)

Randle, as always, is Illinois' X-factor; the Illini are 7-0 this year when he's scored in double figures, 10-7 (in the games he's played) when he hasn't. Yet another injury-plagued year for the talented, superbly athletic yet perpetually disappointing swingman, he too often finds himself in foul trouble. He's playing nowhere near 100%, but remains one of the nation's most gifted defenders when he stays on the court and out of foul trouble. If he can a)get looks in the open court or b)knock down a couple jumpers, he's in business offensively. If not, expect little to nothing from him.

Carter was one of the most improved players in the entire nation, becoming a fine inside-out scorer and a deadly baseline shooter from 15-20 feet for the Illini, capably filling the void left at power forward by James Augustine. His only problem is that he thinks too fast, to put it awkwardly, with the ball at times, leading to too many turnovers, which could be a problem against the Hokies' athletes. Other than that, he's been one of the only reliable sources of offense for the Illini, knocking down jumpers, post moves, driving and finishing on the break. Terrific season for the big Texan.

Both Vassallo and Washington are both wing types in a smallish- not '06 Villanova or '05 Illini small, just not huge- lineup. Washington is one of the most athletic players in the country, and arguably the author of the nation's best highlight reel of dunks and athletic finishes all season, most notably his hurdling of Greg Paulus at Duke in January. If he leaves his feet before you, forget about it. He's putting it down.

Vassallo is a one-dimensional-player offensively; he's going to catch and shoot. He isn't going to make any plays for others, unlike the rest of the Hokies. He isn't going to attack the rim, unlike his teammates. He's strictly catch-and-shoot. But man, he's terrific at it.

EDGE: Push.

Washington is capable of taking over a game, but is just as capable of being a nonfactor. I'll assume Randle will guard him, and if so, this game could come down to which one can stay on the court longer, because each is the X-factor for his team, the guy that can take his club from good to really good. Each averages over three fouls a game, and while Randle has fouled out six times, that's only one more than Washington. Likewise, Vassallo could bury the Illini with a barrage of longballs, but over the 6'9" Carter? That'll be a tall task, and it'll be an even taller task for the Puerto Rican to guard Carter.


Center: Shaun Pruitt (11.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg) v. Coleman Collins (7.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg)

Pruitt became one of the best interior players in the Big Ten this season, averaging nearly 13 and 9 the last two months, finishing with 10 double-doubles and outplaying D.J. White in two of their three meetings. He has limited range, but rarely tries to go outside of it (though sometimes he does to ugly results). Pruitt is strong in the post and has a solid moveset, but too often flips the ball from his shoulder, leading to a lot of blocked shots.

Collins is the only Hokie starter who's not a big scoring threat, but he always seems to find a way to contribute and should make Pruitt work for whatever he gets.

EDGE: Definitely Illinois. Pruitt has gotten better and better as the season has progressed, closing the regular season with consecutive 20-point outings and putting up 16 and 12 on the tourney bid-clinching win over Indiana. Smaller lineups have trouble with the 6'10", 245-pound lefty, and though Collins only gives up an inch or two and maybe 10-15 pounds, no one else in the Hokie rotation has the size to help much.

OVERALL TEAM OFFENSE:It's important to note that both teams play at a very slow pace statistically, Tech finishing 258th in tempo and Illinois 301st, but both teams seem to be most effective when they're able to get going in the open court.

Tech has four starters who average 11+, and they have the all-important go to guy in Dowdell, the guy you can put the ball in the hands of and say, "Okay, make a play." Illinois doesn't have that. The Hokies average 73 ppg on 47% FG shooting, 37% 3pt shooting, both solid, but are shaky at the FT stripe at 66%. They rank a solid 35th in offensive efficiency.

This is the most inept Illini offense in years, a major departure from the days when Dee Brown, Deron Williams, and going a bit farther back, Frank Williams- All-American PGs all of them- ran scintillating offensive shows in the orange and blue. The Illini average 65 ppg on a putrid 43% FG shooting, 35% 3pt shooting, and 63% FT shooting. It's a grave injustice that rims don't have legs when Illinois plays, for otherwise they would flee in terror at the sight of any Illini besides Warren Carter letting loose. They rank 104th in offensive efficiency, just two years after finishing tops in the nation in that category.

EDGE: Major, major edge to the Hokies. They have four scorers and one takeover scorer. Illinois has a quality duo up front with Carter and Pruitt, but even those two have their limitations. If they're both on, Randle is out of foul trouble and being aggressive offensively, and one of the guards gets hot, then look out, but that's a whole lot of "ifs" and those things have all clicked in unison precious few times this year.

OVERALL TEAM DEFENSE/REBOUNDING: This is why the Illini are dancing. They don't come up with a lot of steals, they don't do anything fancy, not much pressing or turnover creating, they just play sound man-to-man defense every possession- literally; the Illini have played three possessions of zone defense in four years under Bruce Weber- and do it in a very nasty, unpleasant fashion. At No. 3 nationally in defensive efficiency and at +4.9 on the glass, this is one of the best defensive units in the nation.

Virginia Tech's guards swipe the ball like no other pair in the country, at over 5 a game, and finished a respectable No. 33 in defensive efficiency, but struggle on the glass at -0.1 a game, a problem that the big Illini frontcourt could really take advantage of.

EDGE: Big-time to Illinois.

Bench: Not a lot either way. I guess I could say minor edge to Illinois, but we'll call it push and move on.

Coaching: Bruce Weber v. Seth Greenberg

Greenberg has done an outstanding job in reviving a dormant VT program, but Weber's been there, done that in the tournament with 11 career wins, taking both the Illini and Southern Illinois to the Sweet 16, including the 2005 title game. I doubt too many other coaches could have dealt with the sh-tstorm of injuries and controversies as well as Weber did this country and still get this offensively challenged group of players to the tourney.

EDGE: Illinois.

Intangibles: The Hokies have two wins over UNC, something Illinois can't come close to matching. They know what it takes. But the Illini, both players and coaches, have been through the tourney grind before. Most of these guys were around for the '05 title game run, though few of them actually played that year.

EDGE: Push.


PREDICTION: If the Illini can keep the game in the halfcourt and the score in the 50's or low 60's, and consistently find angles to make entry passes to Pruitt, get him 25-30 touches, they'll advance. But more likely, the lack of offensive weaponry will finally be their undoing against a potent Hokie club.

Virginia Tech 62, Illinois 56.

Last edited by TheGame414 : 03-12-2007 at 02:44 AM.
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Old 03-12-2007, 10:10 AM   #10
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

I'm not familiar with Davidson at all, so bear with me.

Maryland vs. Davidson

Maryland - RPI: 16; SOS: 15; 8 wins over tourney teams; key wins - Duke (2x), UNC; key losses - FSU, Miami (2x)
Davidson - RPI: 49; SOS: 198; 1 win over tourney teams; key wins - ?; key losses - Michigan, Missouri, App. State

They only have 1 common opponent - Duke:

Duke 75
Davidson 47

Maryland 72
Duke 60

Maryland 85
Duke 77

It seems both like to get up and down the court (Maryland: 79.5 ppg; Davidson: 81.7 ppg), but Davidson depends on the 3-ball much more (Davidson: 25.8 3-point attempts a game while shooting .374 from behind the arc; Maryland: 15 3-point attempts a game while shooting .383 from behind the arc). Senior leadership definitely goes to Maryland as they have 3 Senior starters (6 total) while Davidson only has 2 Seniors on their roster who average a total of a little over 4 minutes a game. Davidson is led by Freshman guard, Stephen Curry, who led the Southern conference in scoring at 21.2 ppg, and Junior PG, Jason Richards, who led the Southern conference in assists at 7.3 apg. Maryland has a good height advantage at guard, 6-5 Jones and 6-5 Vasquez (6-5 Strawberry could draw Curry or be switched to him if he's scoring) to 6-0 Curry and 6-2 Richards. I don't know much about Davidson's bigs, only that they don't have anyone with the size of either Osby (6-8, 255) or Bowers (7-1, 260).

Prediction: should be a high scoring game with Maryland being too much for Davidson to handle, 88-75.
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Old 03-12-2007, 11:30 AM   #11
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

i seen hippose doesn't know who Cubillian is if he thinks Fitz is our only 3pt threat. Matthews can knock em down too.
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Old 03-12-2007, 11:55 AM   #12
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

I do know....but I'm not going to include a player that won't impact the game in all likely hood.
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Old 03-12-2007, 11:57 AM   #13
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

Someone do a Arizona vs Purdue preview
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Old 03-12-2007, 12:10 PM   #14
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

If I do one, it won't be till late cause I got an essay to work on.

5 essays in the next two weeks....I guess there's no sports fans in the social science department.

Actually one of my female profs is a huge bball fan.
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Old 03-12-2007, 12:22 PM   #15
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Default Re: NCAA Tournament Game Previews.

Quote:
I do know....but I'm not going to include a player that won't impact the game in all likely hood.

he's the first guard off the bench

CUBILLIAN, what a name

he's goin for 20 baby!
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