I did some research on 1st-round upsets in the NCAA Tournament since 2001, here's what I found:

Every year had at least one:

9 over 8 upset
10 over 7 upset
12 over 5 upset

Out of 24 first-round games per matchup (i.e., 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, etc) in the 6 years since 2001:

There were 11 (out of 24) 9 over 8 upsets (46%)
8 (out of 24) 10 over 7 upsets (33%)
8 (out of 24) 11 over 6 upsets (33%)
11 (out of 24) 12 over 5 upsets (46%)
6 (out of 24) 13 over 4 upsets (25%)
2 (out of 24) 14 over 3 upsets (8%)
1 (out of 24) 15 over 2 upset (4%)

With this in mind, I think it's best to pick:

2 9 over 8 upsets
1 10 over 7 upset
1 11 over 6 upset
2 12 over 5 upsets
1 13 over 4 upset

Anyone have anything to add?

Last edited by apriorist : 03-12-2007 at 11:55 AM.

Georgia Tech over UNLV (and then Wisconsin)
Villanova over Kentucky
Gonzaga over Indiana
George Washington over Vandy (yes, I know Vandy beat Florida)
Xavier over BYU (easy pick)

Maybe Davidson over Maryland.
Maybe Creighton over Nevada
Maybe Winthrop over Notre Dame
Maybe Illinois over Virginia Tech

first round upsets on my bracket:
winthrop over ND
g tech over UNLV (hippos elite 8 wtf?)
vcu over duke
gonzaga over indiana
creighton over nevada
GWU over vanderbilt

second round upsets:
g tech over wisconsin (:O)
GWU over Wash st.
creighton over memphis

3rd round upsets:
NONE!

Texas A&M knocks off OSU
Georgetown knocks off UNC

first round upsets on my bracket:
winthrop over ND
g tech over UNLV (hippos elite 8 wtf?)
vcu over duke
gonzaga over indiana
creighton over nevada
GWU over vanderbilt

second round upsets:
g tech over wisconsin (:O)
GWU over Wash st.
creighton over memphis

3rd round upsets:
NONE!

Texas A&M knocks off OSU
Georgetown knocks off UNC