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Old 06-10-2014, 11:51 PM   #1
KevinNYC
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Default The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

Seems like a good time for a new thread.

Not only is Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel going to be testifying this week about the Bowe Berghdahl swap, we have a new ambassador nominee to Qatar getting a hearing this week.

Qatar being the country where the Taliban 5 are being sent to
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Old 06-10-2014, 11:55 PM   #2
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

The jihadist group ISIS who is fighting in both Syria and Iraq, just took over Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq.

Quote:
Islamic militants overran parts of Iraq's second-largest city of Mosul on Tuesday, driving security forces from their posts and seizing the provincial government headquarters, security bases and other key buildings. Gunmen cruised through neighborhoods, waving black banners while residents fled.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki pressed parliament to declare a state of emergency.

The fight for Mosul was a heavy defeat in Baghdad's battle against a widening insurgency by a breakaway al Qaeda group, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which has been trying - with some success - to seize territory both in Iraq and neighboring Syria.

Earlier this year, the group captured another Iraqi city, Fallujah, in the west of the country, and government forces have been unable to take it back after months of fighting. The far larger Mosul is an even more strategic prize. The city and surrounding Ninevah province are a major export route for Iraqi oil and a gateway to Syria.

Regaining Mosul poses a daunting challenge for al-Maliki. The city has a Sunni Muslim majority and many in the community are already deeply embittered against his Shiite-led government. During the nearly nine-year American presence in the country, Mosul was a major stronghold for al Qaeda and U.S. and Iraqi forces carried out repeated offensives there, regaining a semblance of control but never routing the insurgents entirely.
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Old 06-10-2014, 11:58 PM   #3
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

ISIS is the group, that is fighting Al Zawahiri's core Al Qaeda for leadership of the jihadi movement. A victory like can mean other groups who have yet to choose sides see them as the stronger group.
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Old 06-11-2014, 12:01 AM   #4
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor just lost in the primary to a Tea Party candidate.

Quote:
Washington reels as House's Eric Cantor loses to tea party challenger

In a shocking political defeat guaranteed to upend Republican Party politics, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia lost his primary election Tuesday to a tea party newcomer who hammered the No. 2 leader on immigration reform. It was the first downfall of a congressional leader in a generation.

Establishment Washington reeled from the moment the polls closed as Cantor, the ambitious leader with his sights on becoming the next House speaker, trailed Dave Brat, a local college professor who rustled for tea party support at a time when GOP leaders elsewhere have succeeded in halting the ascent of hard-right candidates.

In the end, Brat claimed an easy victory over the seven-term incumbent in the Richmond-area district.
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Old 06-11-2014, 12:04 AM   #5
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

There was an emerging storyline that this was the year the establishment Republicans fought back the Tea Party. That story is now dead. This was posted on the Washington Post at 5PM today
Quote:
PRIMARY ANALYSIS: A conservative challenger is expected to fall far short of defeating House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) in Tuesday’s congressional primary in Virginia, reports Rachel Weiner.

He ended up losing by 11 points. I wonder who was polling this. The Tea Party guy campaigned against immigration reform.

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Old 06-11-2014, 12:23 AM   #6
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

This Cantor thing is gigantic. He was probably going to be the next speaker of the House. This reporter is very wired into the House GOP, here's some of his tweets.

Quote:
Robert Costa @costareports 4h
it's the biggest blow to the GOP establishment in years. Whole network of DC Rs have been wired into Cantor, prepping for when he got gavel


Robert Costa @costareports 4h
Cantor's friends are FURIOUS, said he was told by consultants that he was up 20-30 points, didn't need to worry..

Robert Costa @costareports 4h
“This is an earthquake,” said former Minnesota congressman Vin Weber, a Cantor friend who sounded near tears http://wapo.st/SvohxN
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Old 06-11-2014, 12:30 AM   #7
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

ISIS. Sounds like something from a James Bond movie.
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Old 06-11-2014, 12:43 AM   #8
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scoooter
ISIS. Sounds like something from a James Bond movie.

Their name translates to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. In additon to Iraq and Syria the Levant includes Lebanon, Israel Palestine, parts of Turkey and other areas. So that gives some sense of their ambition. It's also an old term for the Middle East before the British redrew the maps.

They used to be Al Qaeda in Iraq, but now they are fighting Al Qaeda.

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Old 06-11-2014, 12:48 AM   #9
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

The politicians of our day are nothing but glorified aristocrats. They have not reached their seats by the merit of their own talent or skill, but by a tradition of nepotism, populism, and other means of corruption.

I refuse to endorse the puppets and tyrants that claim to represent us. Bring back the monarchy. The rightful rulers of man are not suits who are up for sale to the highest bidder. Qatar is getting the world cup in 2022? Bullshit.

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Old 06-11-2014, 12:53 AM   #10
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

Wild that Cantor lost, and to boot he's replaced by a Tea-Bag that will split them even further.
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Old 06-11-2014, 01:03 AM   #11
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeuceWallaces
Wild that Cantor lost, and to boot he's replaced by a Tea-Bag that will split them even further.
Boehner is expected to step down as Speaker next year. That means, right now there is no favorite and it's wide open.

Also, apparently it was an open primary and Democrats could have voted in it. Cantor got 79% last time and there's was a lot more voters this time. I wonder if there was any large switchover.

I don't know how anyone could keep any sort of organized campaign quiet these days.
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Old 06-11-2014, 02:20 AM   #12
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
and there's was a lot more voters this time. I wonder if there was any large switchover.

On the contrary. I believe from what I saw there was much less voter turn out.
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Old 06-11-2014, 10:08 AM   #13
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick Chewing
On the contrary. I believe from what I saw there was much less voter turn out.

Compared to other states Viriginia has low turnout in primaries. This is because for a long, long time Virginia didn't have primaries. The parties chose their candidates in conventions.

But compared to 2012, voter turnout was UP 30%

Quote:
Mr. Cantor easily defeated a primary challenge in 2012, generally a better year for the Tea Party, by nearly a 60-point margin. Turnout was not unusually low: More than 63,000 votes have been counted so far, up from around 47,037 in 2012.

So it may have been that polling the entire district you had Cantor willing by 30 points. But if you looked at who was going to get out and vote, he was in trouble.
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Old 06-11-2014, 10:11 AM   #14
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
Also, apparently it was an open primary and Democrats could have voted in it. Cantor got 79% last time and there's was a lot more voters this time. I wonder if there was any large switchover.

I don't know how anyone could keep any sort of organized campaign quiet these days.

This doesn't look like it happened. Reviews of polling data show the Democratic areas had the lowest turnout yesterday while Cantor's support collapsed in areas that went for Mitt Romney in 2012.
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Old 06-11-2014, 10:15 AM   #15
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Default Re: The Big Ass Second Term/Politics thread part V

Apparently, Cantor helped gerrymander his district to be a very conservative district so it would be safe and he could rack up big wins in the general election.

Ooops.
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