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Old 12-12-2015, 02:54 PM   #1
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Default The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Wow, ESPN is even worse than I thought it was.

Hey ESPN "stats experts"...



http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...best-qbr-ever/

Charlie Batch’s 186-yard, two-pick game has ESPN’s best QBR ever


Posted by Michael David Smith on November 19, 2015, 4:13 PM EST

There’s a risk of beating a dead horse when you talk about QBR, ESPN’s proprietary statistic that was rolled out with great fanfare four years ago as the “one stat that measures the totality of a quarterback’s performance.” I said plenty about QBR last week, and perhaps no more needs to be said.

But today I decided to dig a little deeper into what is, according to QBR, the greatest game any quarterback has ever played: Charlie Batch’s 186-yard, two-interception performance against the Buccaneers in 2010.

Really. Under “All-Time Best Games” on ESPN.com’s QBR page, the top game on the list is an utterly forgettable game that Batch played in place of the suspended Ben Roethlisberger in 2010. I couldn’t comprehend how 186 yards and two interceptions could add up to the greatest game ever played, with a 99.9 QBR on a scale of 0-100, but then again I didn’t remember exactly what Batch did in that game, and I know ESPN claims that QBR benefits from tape analysis that includes dropped passes and performance under pressure and other things that the traditional stats overlook. So I decided to re-watch Batch’s game and see how it looked.

Thanks to NFL.com’s Game Pass, it’s easy to go back and watch old games. So I did. And what I saw was not the greatest game any quarterback had in NFL history. Not even close. I’m sure Charlie Batch doesn’t think it was the greatest game in NFL history. I’m sure Charlie Batch’s mom doesn’t think it was the greatest game in NFL history. No sane person could possibly think it was the greatest game in NFL history. Only ESPN’s super-secret QBR formula could possibly arrive at the conclusion that it was the greatest game in NFL history.

Batch’s first pass of the game was absolutely terrible. He hit Aqib Talib in stride, right between the numbers — which is not a good thing because Talib played for the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers’ offense couldn’t do anything with the great field position Batch gave up with his interception, but the Bucs did kick a field goal to take a 3-0 lead. Shortly after that, CBS showed a split screen of Talib and Batch and called them “the hero and the goat.”

So how did Batch go from goat to G.O.A.T., at least according to QBR? I have no earthly idea, because ESPN doesn’t make its QBR formula public. But there was certainly nothing in the rest of Batch’s play that day that suggested a “Greatest Of All Time” performance.

The Steelers’ second possession ended in a three-and-out when Batch dumped off a pass to running back Mewelde Moore, and Moore dropped it. QBR apparently doesn’t penalize Batch for the drop, but even if Moore had caught the ball, he was very unlikely to pick up the first down. Why doesn’t QBR penalize Batch for throwing a third-down pass well short of the line to gain? I don’t know, you don’t know, no one knows except the people who calculate QBR, and they’re not saying.

Batch finally had a big play on the Steelers’ third possession, a 45-yard touchdown pass to Mike Wallace. That pass undoubtedly did a lot to bolster Batch’s QBR, but it really shouldn’t have: Wallace was well covered, Batch probably shouldn’t have thrown to him, and it only turned into a touchdown because Wallace made a great play on the ball while Buccaneers rookie safety Cody Grimm (a backup who was only playing because starting safety Tanard Jackson was suspended) lost sight of the ball and didn’t know where it was until Wallace caught it in the end zone.

As Steve Tasker, who was serving as the color commentator on the game for CBS, put it: “That ball’s up for grabs, and Grimm can’t make a play on it because he didn’t turn around and look for it. They had it covered, they just couldn’t make the play.”

That was the first “big play” Batch made in the game: A ball he threw into coverage that only turned into a touchdown because the defensive back lost sight of it.

Soon after that, Batch threw his second touchdown pass, another deep ball to Wallace in the end zone. That pass was even worse: Batch underthrew it, Talib reached up and grabbed it, and then somehow the ball bounced off Talib’s hands and into Wallace’s hands for another touchdown.

“The Bucs had it covered,” Tasker said on the broadcast. “Talib has his hands on it and tips it right to Wallace. That goes from being a pick-off in the end zone to a touchdown, just like that. . . . Talib’s got to be looking at himself going, ‘You got to be kidding me.’ He was right on that play and all of a sudden it’s a touchdown.”

When ESPN rolled out QBR, it boasted that the use of film study improved QBR because it could weed out things like dropped passes, which count against a quarterback’s stats but aren’t the quarterback’s fault. But what good is film study if it gives credit to Batch for two long touchdown passes, without noticing that both passes were thrown into coverage and could just as easily have been intercepted?

It’s not that Batch was terrible in his “all-time greatest” QBR game: On Batch’s third and final touchdown pass of the day, he did a nice job of buying himself some time and then finding an open Hines Ward in the end zone for a touchdown. It was a good play by Batch, but no better a play than we see quarterbacks make every Sunday — certainly not a play that screams “Greatest game in NFL history!”

That was Batch’s final touchdown pass of the game. He did throw another interception, again right into the hands of a defender: Buccaneers linebacker Quincy Black intercepted it with ease.

“He just throws it right to him. Quincy Black wasn’t moving anywhere,” Tasker said on the broadcast.

Why didn’t that interception count against Batch’s QBR? Maybe because QBR is “clutch-weighted,” which means it places greater importance on plays that come late in close games, and Batch’s second interception came after the Steelers had already taken a big enough lead that the game was in hand. But the Steelers’ big lead in that game was mostly attributable to their defense, which totally shut down Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman, who was benched after throwing a pick-six. Does Batch really deserve more credit on his QBR just because his defense shut down the other team’s quarterback?

To review, in that Steelers-Buccaneers game, Batch threw 17 passes. Two of them were interceptions thrown directly into the hands of the opposing defense. Two of them were long touchdown passes that easily could have been intercepted if the defensive backs had done their jobs. One was a legitimately good touchdown pass. On the other passes, Batch went 9-for-12 for 90 yards.

Does that sound to you like the greatest game any quarterback has ever played in NFL history? If it does, there might be a place for you in ESPN’s analytics department.

Last edited by Euroleague : 12-12-2015 at 05:37 PM.
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Old 12-12-2015, 04:06 PM   #2
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Wow.. interesting stuff. Didn't know QBR was such bullshit.
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Old 12-14-2015, 01:48 AM   #3
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Quote:
Blake Bortles had 250 Yds 4 TD 0 Int 3 Pass & 1 Rush TD in 51-16 Win over the Colts but had a 3.8 QBR



Shittiest stat of all time
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Old 12-14-2015, 03:34 AM   #4
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Quote:
Originally Posted by oarabbus


Shittiest stat of all time

That can't be right
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Old 12-14-2015, 11:43 AM   #5
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

I don't believe the actual mathetatical formula for QBR has been posted by espn.

So I wouldn't buy into any stat where they won't even show you how they got their numbers.

At least with PER, I know exactly what it is. I know that it won't tell me who makes the most impact on the court, but rather it is a conglomerate of who has the best total stats (according to them...some people might think assists are more meaningful than PER's formula says it is, or blocks, or rebounds)
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Old 12-14-2015, 12:19 PM   #6
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Very much enjoyed this post, sir.

Well done.
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Old 12-14-2015, 12:28 PM   #7
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bless Mathews
That can't be right
it is


had a qb rating of 114 and a qbr of 3.8
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Old 12-14-2015, 01:18 PM   #8
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

hahaha espn took him off that list now, they have to know their formula is bullshit.......
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Old 12-14-2015, 03:07 PM   #9
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

They created this stat to please all the fans who want emphasis on being 'clutch' which is stupid because the reality of the situation is that a TD in 1st quarter is every bit as meaningful as a TD in the 4th quarter...they are both worth 6 points and they can both determine who wins the game. The whole "clutch" movement which is emerged the past 5 or so years is

So that Bortles game, where he scored 4 TDs and 0 INTs...I'm sure all his TDs happened early, then he probably had a lot of incompletions in the final moments, because that is all QBR cares about, scoring in the 'clutch'
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Old 12-14-2015, 03:16 PM   #10
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Quote:
Originally Posted by ~primetime~
They created this stat to please all the fans who want emphasis on being 'clutch' which is stupid because the reality of the situation is that a TD in 1st quarter is every bit as meaningful as a TD in the 4th quarter...they are both worth 6 points and they can both determine who wins the game. The whole "clutch" movement which is emerged the past 5 or so years is

So that Bortles game, where he scored 4 TDs and 0 INTs...I'm sure all his TDs happened early, then he probably had a lot of incompletions in the final moments, because that is all QBR cares about, scoring in the 'clutch'

Wrong on so many levels, as usual.

Here's an example;

A QB has 456 passing yards, 5 TDs, 85% completion and a perfect QB rating through 3 quarters.

The score is 42-42; in the last 5 minutes that QB goes:

1 for 13, for 13 yards & 1 INT.
His team losses the game.

His overall numbers are excellent and he has a very good QB rating, what he did in clutch doesn't matter to you?

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Old 12-14-2015, 03:38 PM   #11
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Quote:
Originally Posted by West-Side
Wrong on so many levels, as usual.

Here's an example;

A QB has 456 passing yards, 5 TDs, 85% completion and a perfect QB rating through 3 quarters.

The score is 42-42; in the last 5 minutes that QB goes:

1 for 13, for 13 yards & 1 INT.
His team losses the game.

His overall numbers are excellent and he has a very good QB rating, what he did in clutch doesn't matter to you?

Let's say he went 1 for 13 and 1 INT in the first quarter, and had a perfect passer rating in the final 3 quarters...they lose the game

it's the same exact thing

a TD is a TD...the only difference is the way you perceive it

a TD in the first Q is literally worth the same value as a TD in the fourth Q
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Old 12-14-2015, 04:14 PM   #12
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondooooooooooo
hahaha espn took him off that list now, they have to know their formula is bullshit.......

What trolls these stat geeks at ESPN are............they removed Batch's game from the best QBR "All-Time Best Games", being the highest ever game at 99.9.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/0/type/alltime-game


The clowns forgot to remove it from his game logs though......


http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelo.../charlie-batch


and from the box score....


http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=300926027


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Old 12-14-2015, 04:22 PM   #13
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed





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Last edited by Euroleague : 12-14-2015 at 04:28 PM.
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Old 12-14-2015, 06:03 PM   #14
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

I made a thread about this years ago btw.

Terrell Pryor passed for like 115 yards on 50% 0 tds 2 picks. Did have a long rushing td. In same week Brees threw for like 400 yards 5 tds 0 picks. And Pryor had way higher QBR.

I see euro Tard is anti ESPN again, when he was pro ESPN to prove his point on a different thread and of course didn't respond to me.

Fucc Tard idiot.
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Old 12-15-2015, 01:02 PM   #15
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Default Re: The Joke Of Total QBR Exposed

Quote:
Originally Posted by ~primetime~
Let's say he went 1 for 13 and 1 INT in the first quarter, and had a perfect passer rating in the final 3 quarters...they lose the game

it's the same exact thing

a TD is a TD...the only difference is the way you perceive it

a TD in the first Q is literally worth the same value as a TD in the fourth Q

Not if it's a close game and you're trying to actually win the game.
Than your performance throughout the game matters.

I don't care about the QBR, I'm giving you a general overview of why clutch play is critical to evaluating QB's value.

It's not a matter of perception, it's a matter of reality.
If your QB (aka Manning) can rack up stats but fails to win big games, or has miscues in the 4th quarter; should you not penalize him for that?

Considering the QB is the single most important position on a team in late game situations.
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