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Old 04-18-2017, 04:27 PM   #1
~primetime~
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Default The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

I threw together a quick formula in an effort to rank the greatest RB careers of all time. This is NOT a formula to rank the greatest RBs, that is very subject, this is a formula to rank their careers, which is much more objective (although still somewhat subjective)

It's really a simple formula that basically breaks down like this:

1/3rd - Bulk Stats
1/3rd - Efficiency
1/3rd - Accolades

The Bulk Stat portion is pretty straight forward, I more or less assigned a fantasy football score to the runner's career stats, including their receiving numbers. 1 point per 10 rushing yards, 1 point per 20 receiving yards, 6 points per TD.

BULK SCORE
1. Emmitt Smith - 4,071.06
2. Walter Payton - 3,739.56
3. Ladainian Tomlinson - 3,680,76
4. Marshall Faulk - 3,594.56
5. Marcus Allen - 3,492.56
6. Barry Sanders - 3,336.16
7. Curtis Martin - 3,206.16
8. Jim Brown - 3,100.26
9. Frank Gore - 3,052.36
10. Thurman Thomas - 3,044.36

The Efficiency portion is the most straight forward, it is 100% based on YPC. The runner gets 71.42 points per .1 YPC. That gives the most efficient runner ever (Marion Motley) a score that matches the top Bulk Stat scorer (Emmitt Smith).

EFFICIENCY SCORE
1. Marion Motley 5.7 (4,070.94)
2. Jamaal Charles 5.5 (3,928.10)
3. Jim Brown 5.2 (3,713.84)
4. Mercury Morris 5.1 (3,642.42)
5. Joe Perry 5.0 (3,571.00)
5. Gale Sayers 5.0 (3,571.00)
5. Barry Sanders 5.0 (3,571.00)
8. Napoleon Kaufman 4.9 (3,499.58)
8. Paul Lowe 4.9 (3,499.58)
8. Adrian Peterson 4.9 (3,499.58)

The Accolade portion is easily the most subjective part of this, and I could tweak it out a ton if I wanted. There are lots of variables to consider (Probowls worth more in past than today). But what I quickly threw together scores like this:

AP MVP 360 points
Rushing Title 200 points
1st Team All-Pro 100 points
ROY 150 points
ProBowl 50 points

ACCOLADE SCORE
1. Jim Brown - 4,080
2. Barry Sanders - 2,410
3. Emmitt Smith - 2,110
4. O.J. Simpson - 1,910
5. Adrian Peterson - 1,860
6. Eric Dickerson - 1,750
7. Walter Payton - 1,710
8. Earl Campbell - 1,660
9. Ladainian Tomlinson - 1,310
10. Gale Sayers - 1,250

When you combine these 3 scores to create one overall score...the top-50 looks like this:

OVERALL SCORE

1. Jim Brown - (BULK 3,100.26) (3,713.84 YPC 5.2) (ACC 4,080) TOTAL: 10,894.10
2. Barry Sanders - (BULK 3,336.16) (3,571.00 YPC 5.0) (ACC 2,410) TOTAL: 9,317.16
3. Emmitt Smith - (BULK 4,071.06) (2,999.64 YPC 4.2) (ACC 2,110) TOTAL: 9,180.70
4. Walter Payton - (BULK 3,739.56) (3,142.48 YPC 4.4) (ACC 1,710) TOTAL: 8,592.04
5. Adrian Peterson - (BULK 2,844.36) (3,499.58 YPC 4.9) (ACC 1,860) TOTAL: 8,203.94
6. Ladainian Tomlinson - (BULK 3,680.76) (3,071.06 YPC 4.3) (ACC 1,310) TOTAL: 8,061.82
7. O.J. Simpson - (BULK 2,650.96) (3,356.74 YPC 4.7) (ACC 1,910) TOTAL: 7,917.70
8. Eric Dickerson - (BULK 2,978.76) (3,142.48 YPC 4.4) (ACC 1,750) TOTAL: 7,871.24
9. Marshall Faulk - (BULK 3,594.56) (3,071.06 YPC 4.3) (ACC 1,160) TOTAL: 7,825.62
10. Marcus Allen - (BULK 3,492.56) (2,928.22 YPC 4.1) (ACC 1,210) TOTAL: 7,630.78
11. Thurman Thomas - (BULK 3,044.36) (2,999.64 YPC 4.2) (ACC 910) TOTAL: 6,954.00
12. Curtis Martin - (BULK 3,206.16) (2,856.80 YPC 4.0) (ACC 800) TOTAL: 6,862.96
13. Edgerrin James - (BULK 2,970.16) (2,856.80 YPC 4.0) (ACC 950) TOTAL: 6,776.96
14. Jim Taylor - (BULK 2,456.46) (3,142.48 YPC 4.4) (ACC 1,110) TOTAL: 6,708.94
15. Shaun Alexander - (BULK 2,632.46) (3,071.06 YPC 4.3) (ACC 910) TOTAL: 6,613.52
16. Tony Dorsett - (BULK 3,032.46) (3,071.06 YPC 4.3) (ACC 450) TOTAL: 6,553.52
17. Franco Harris - (BULK 2,903.86) (2,928.22 YPC 4.1) (ACC 700) TOTAL: 6,532.08
18. Priest Holmes - (BULK 2,540.56) (3,285.32 YPC 4.6) (ACC 650) TOTAL: 6,475.88
19. Frank Gore - (BULK 3,052.36) (3,142.48 YPC 4.4) (ACC 250) TOTAL: 6,444.84
20. Tiki Barber - (BULK 2,828.36) (3,356.74 YPC 4.7) (ACC 250) TOTAL: 6,435.10
21. Jerome Bettis - (BULK 2,938.26) (2,785.38 YPC 3.9) (ACC 500) TOTAL: 6,223.64
22. Lenny Moore - (BULK 1,787.30) (3,428.16 YPC 4.8) (ACC 1,000) TOTAL: 6,215.46
23. Earl Campbell - (BULK 1,470.70) (3,071.06 YPC 4.3) (ACC 1,660) TOTAL: 6,201.76
24. Roger Craig - (BULK 2,611.16) (2,928.22 YPC 4.1) (ACC 660) TOTAL: 6,199.38
25. Maurice Jones-Drew - (BULK 2,448.26) (3,142.48 YPC 4.4) (ACC 550) TOTAL: 6,140.74
26. Joe Perry - (BULK 1,672.40) (3,571.00 YPC 5.0) (ACC 850) TOTAL: 6,093.40
27. Ricky Watters - (BULK 2,898.26) (2,928.22 YPC 4.1) (ACC 250) TOTAL: 6,076.48
28. Fred Taylor - (BULK 2,715.06) (3,285.32 YPC 4.6) (ACC 50) TOTAL: 6,050.38
29. Corey Dillon - (BULK 2,712.56) (3,071.06 YPC 4.3) (ACC 200) TOTAL: 5,983.62
30. Warrick Dunn - (BULK 2,777.76) (2,928.22 YPC 4.1) (ACC 250) TOTAL: 5,955.98
31. Steven Jackson - (BULK 2,843.26) (2,928.22 YPC 4.1) (ACC 150) TOTAL: 5,921.48
32. Ottis Anderson - (BULK 2,712.66) (2,856.80 YPC 4.0) (ACC 350) TOTAL: 5,919.46
33. Marshawn Lynch - (BULK 2,470.26) (3,071.06 YPC 4.3) (ACC 350) TOTAL: 5,891.32
34. Ricky Williams - (BULK 2,568.66) (2,928.22 YPC 4.1) (ACC 350) TOTAL: 5,846.88
35. John Riggins - (BULK 2,903.36) (2,785.38 YPC 3.9) (ACC 150) TOTAL: 5,838.74
36. Matt Forte - (BULK 2,674.56) (2,999.64 YPC 4.2) (ACC 100) TOTAL: 5,774.20
37. Herschel Walker - (BULK 2,663.56) (2,999.64 YPC 4.2) (ACC 100) TOTAL: 5,763.20
38. Gale Sayers - (BULK 914.30) (3,571.00 YPC 5.0) (ACC 1,250) TOTAL: 5,735.30
39. Jamaal Charles - (BULK 1,349.70) (3,928.10 YPC 5.5) (ACC 400) TOTAL: 5,677.80
40. LeSean McCoy - (BULK 1,626.40) (3,356.74 YPC 4.7) (ACC 650) TOTAL: 5,633.14
41. Eddie George - (BULK 2,597.96) (2,571.12 YPC 3.6) (ACC 450) TOTAL: 5,619.08
42. Terrell Davis - (BULK 1,278.70) (3,285.32 YPC 4.6) (ACC 1,010) TOTAL: 5,574.02
43. Earnest Byner - (BULK 2,575.76) (2,785.38 YPC 3.9) (ACC 100) TOTAL: 5,461.14
44. Hugh McElhenny - (BULK 1,200.80) (3,356.74 YPC 4.7) (ACC 800) TOTAL: 5,357.54
45. Freeman McNeil (BULK 1403.50) (3,213.90 YPC 4.5) (ACC 650) TOTAL: 5,267.40
46. Chris Johnson - (BULK 1,558.90) (3,213.90 YPC 4.5) (ACC 450) TOTAL: 5,222.80
47. James Brooks - (BULK 1,632.30) (3,356.74 YPC 4.7) (ACC 200) TOTAL: 5,189.04
48. Marion Motley - (BULK 810.70) (4,070.94 YPC 5.7) (ACC 250) TOTAL: 5,131.64
49. Jamal Lewis (BULK 1620.60) (2,999.64 YPC 4.2) (ACC 450) TOTAL: 5,070.24
50. Brian Westbrook (BULK 1,453.50) (3,285.32 YPC 4.6) (ACC 300) TOTAL: 5,038.82
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Old 04-18-2017, 04:37 PM   #2
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

Petersons career has not been better than LT
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Old 04-18-2017, 04:41 PM   #3
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

Quote:
Originally Posted by CelticBaller
Petersons career has not been better than LT
Looks like on this what puts him over is the accolades and 4.9 YPC vs 4.3 YPC

Tomlinson has more bulk stats


They are very close in on this and in reality IMO...both 1st RD HOF

Both have an MVP...Peterson has more All-Pros and ProBowls
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Old 04-18-2017, 04:43 PM   #4
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

Peterson's 4.9 YPC is amazing, top-10 all time...he's just a small tick away from Barry Sanders on that front

He probably doesn't get enough credit for his great efficiency
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Old 04-19-2017, 12:39 AM   #5
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)



Good work PT
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Old 04-19-2017, 01:16 AM   #6
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

Priest Holmes is somewhat forgotten, for a 3 year stretch he was an absolute monster for KC, he could also catch passes out of the backfield.
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Old 04-19-2017, 01:56 AM   #7
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

The only beef I have with this formula is to weigh the bulk on per year or per game

Shows how impressive Jim Brown , Barry careers were and how overrated emmit was.

Emmit smith - 226 games

Barry sanders - 153 games

Jim brown - only 118 games!!!

If 1/3 of the formula is based on totals the number of games played should be based on average per game.
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Old 04-19-2017, 10:02 AM   #8
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bless Mathews
The only beef I have with this formula is to weigh the bulk on per year or per game

Shows how impressive Jim Brown , Barry careers were and how overrated emmit was.

Emmit smith - 226 games

Barry sanders - 153 games

Jim brown - only 118 games!!!

If 1/3 of the formula is based on totals the number of games played should be based on average per game.
Efficiency is 1/3rd of it

Also longevity is good...not bad.


What's crazy is that I had to omit post season stuff because it rewards players on good teams like Emmitt. But Emmitt had massive post season numbers, like another 2,000 yards and 20 TDs or something. A SB MVP...sucks because it is a big part of his actual career but if I included post seasons it would really skew a lot of players. Some of these guys had no post season.
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Old 04-19-2017, 10:05 AM   #9
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

To me the list gets interesting after the top-9.

I think the top-9 are consensus...maybe not that order but everyone has those 9 at the top.

So it's after that we see the runners that we don't think about much...
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Old 04-19-2017, 12:25 PM   #10
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

1 Point per 20 yards receiving.

Do yards, whether caught or ran, change in real life? If a guy catches a pass out the backfield and runs 20 yards, do the refs halve that and give the offense 10 yards gained?

Where's the logic in that.
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Old 04-19-2017, 12:53 PM   #11
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

This is very cool - good work prime.
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Old 04-19-2017, 01:28 PM   #12
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

How long did you work on that?

List seems pretty good
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Old 04-19-2017, 01:47 PM   #13
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ~primetime~
Efficiency is 1/3rd of it

Also longevity is good...not bad.


What's crazy is that I had to omit post season stuff because it rewards players on good teams like Emmitt. But Emmitt had massive post season numbers, like another 2,000 yards and 20 TDs or something. A SB MVP...sucks because it is a big part of his actual career but if I included post seasons it would really skew a lot of players. Some of these guys had no post season.


Still g

There has to be an average on totals on something that is 1/3 of the equation. Period

Emmit played almost double games as jim brown

Comeon g

That'd be like goin against someone in fantasy and you only get one half of the game for their whole game.

Comeon g.
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Old 04-19-2017, 03:10 PM   #14
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carbine
1 Point per 20 yards receiving.

Do yards, whether caught or ran, change in real life? If a guy catches a pass out the backfield and runs 20 yards, do the refs halve that and give the offense 10 yards gained?

Where's the logic in that.
It's the same logic as used in fantasy, rushing yards are harder to come by. The bulk of receiving yardage is done when the player isn't even holding the ball.

and off topic...not all yardage is equal in the NFL IMO...3rd and short yards >>> 1st and 10 yards
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Old 04-19-2017, 03:14 PM   #15
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Default Re: The Top-50 Running Back careers of All-Time (formula)

If you gain 2 more yards on first down, that 3rd and 2 becomes a 1st down without the need of converting a 3rd and short.

Logic escapes you consistently.
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