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Old 09-19-2017, 03:17 PM   #31
BigNBAfan
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

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Originally Posted by rufuspaul
The planes measure that stuff too.

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Earlier versions of this scale – known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale – incorporated central pressure and storm surge as components of the categories. The central pressure was used during the 1970s and 1980s as a proxy for the winds as accurate wind speed intensity measurements from aircraft reconnaissance were not routinely available for hurricanes until 1990. Storm surge was also quantified by category in the earliest published versions of the scale dating back to 1972. However, hurricane size (extent of hurricane-force winds), local bathymetry (depth of near-shore waters), topography, the hurricane’s forward speed and angle to the coast also affect the surge that is produced

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws.pdf

All i'm saying is that the quantitation of determining the category of hurricane has not been constant for very long. So we cannot extrapolate that information across two centuries or even further...
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:20 PM   #32
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

Technology will always advance...200 years from now there will probably be some people arguing that the data we are collecting now is obsolete...while they are trying to figure out if 50 Cat 8 hurricanes is normal rather than just 30.
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:21 PM   #33
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

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Originally Posted by ~primetime~
Technology will always advance...200 years from now there will probably be some people arguing that the data we are collecting now is obsolete...while they are trying to figure out if 50 Cat 8 hurricanes is normal rather than just 30.
Dont worry about it. Soon we're going back to the middle ages.
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:22 PM   #34
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

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Originally Posted by ~primetime~
Technology will always advance...200 years from now there will probably be some people arguing that the data we are collecting now is obsolete...while they are trying to figure out if 50 Cat 8 hurricanes is normal rather than just 30.

I mean, even giving you the benefit of the doubt...

Only looking at the last ~50 years, there is practically no pattern, no matter how you want to look at it, to suggest storms are becoming more destructive or more numerous.

There just isn't.
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:24 PM   #35
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

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Originally Posted by UK2K
I mean, even giving you the benefit of the doubt...

Only looking at the last ~50 years, there is practically no pattern, no matter how you want to look at it, to suggest storms are becoming more destructive or more numerous.

There just isn't.
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/...?itok=Er9dc2yF

^^^ that is just 50 years time
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:26 PM   #36
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

http://www.motherjones.com/wp-conten...inal.gif?w=990

that is just since the 80s
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:28 PM   #37
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

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Originally Posted by ~primetime~

I'm not going to do the statistics, but the R coefficient is not going to be good there...

trend lines dont mean anything dude. Have you taken statistics?
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:30 PM   #38
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

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Originally Posted by BigNBAfan
I'm not going to do the statistics, but the R coefficient is not going to be good there...

trend lines dont mean anything dude. Have you taken statistics?
The trend is the entire debate here lol
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:30 PM   #39
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigNBAfan
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws.pdf

All i'm saying is that the quantitation of determining the category of hurricane has not been constant for very long. So we cannot extrapolate that information across two centuries or even further...


True
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:30 PM   #40
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

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Originally Posted by ~primetime~
The trend is the entire debate here lol


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Old 09-19-2017, 03:31 PM   #41
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

And I'm giving you guys the benefit of the doubt by removing 100 years data

1850-1950
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:36 PM   #42
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

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Originally Posted by ~primetime~
And I'm giving you guys the benefit of the doubt by removing 100 years data

1850-1950



I just gave that graph a second glance... that is garbage data.

They are measuring a measure.... it allows people to be blindsided. Who seriously line graphs percentages?

When you have percentage on the Y-, and n or samples along the X-, how do you know how many hurricanes even occured? What's the inclusion/exclusion criteria?

Last edited by BigNBAfan : 09-19-2017 at 03:39 PM.
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:38 PM   #43
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

okay, you said only the past 45 years is legit data...I show you that data and now you try to discredit that

Clearly no matter what is shown to you guys and no matter how many cat5 hurricanes we see it isn't going to do anything to your thought process
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:41 PM   #44
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigNBAfan
When you have percentage on the Y-, and n or samples along the X-, how do you know how many hurricanes even occured? What's the inclusion/exclusion criteria?
here is the National Hurricane Center data.

Just look at 1970 and up...ignore the rest if you want
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:41 PM   #45
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Default Re: Hurricane Maria is now a Cat 5









I mean... take your pick. I literally Googled 'number of hurricanes by year chart' and these were the first four that showed up.

And there's absolutely zero trend in any of them.
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