Re: NFL Ohio: Who survives?
It is interesting that outsiders believe Hue is as good as gone. I can tell you, as a person who follows the Browns religiously and (unfortunately) has watched every play since he became coach, I would probably say it is more likely he keeps his job than not.
I might put the odds at about 50-50. If he gets a win, I'd say maybe 30% chance he gets fired. If they go 0-16, maybe 60% chance he gets fired.
I can go into the "why" of the whole thing, but the man simply isn't in a position to succeed and I understand the historically awful nature of this team atm. It is hard to know who to blame for what has happened, but Tayshaun Gipson brought up some good points last week.
There are three kinds of players in the league that a team generally needs on their roster to succeed.
1. Young, explosive blue-chip talent still learning the ropes.
2. Young solid pieces you hope will become starter-caliber players in time.
3. In their prime Pro Bowl level (or slightly below) players as the foundation.
4. Wiley veterans to balance out the roster and basically be coaches on the field.
Once is a while you'll have great young players who come into the league as All-Pro caliber or all-time great veterans still owning their positions, but this balance is a good guide as to how to build your roster with a solid foundation.
Especially once Joe Thomas went down, the Browns are literally almost completely category 1 and 2 guys.
And, Gipson is exactly the kind of player that they've let walk over the last few years ... he made the Pro Bowl in a Cleveland uniform and a year later, he was with the Jaguars (and maybe the best defense in the league). Not to say he is the best safety in the NFL, but he is the kind of player you need next to a Jabril Peppers or a Myles Garrett.
The very good to good to solid starter players they've let walk show you the Sixers "Process" style approach the front office took to this rebuild.
Just off the top of my head, here are some of the category 3 or 4 guys we've let walk recently:
Some of these players could really help (Mack, Schwartz, McCown, Gipson, Gabriel, Benjamin, Pryor, Rubin), while others like Terrance West and Mingo were completely expendable. But, to simply wipe away your entire veteran presence and put all the onus on rookies and second year guys is a recipe for 0-16 unless you have great quarterback play (obviously not the case)? That hurts your on-field product but, maybe even more importantly, it crushes the kind of balance in the lockerroom and on the practice field.
Throw in the loss of Josh Gordon for good measure.
That isn't to take all the responsibility off of Hue. He hasn't adjusted well, imo, from coordinator to head coach. I think he has too much on his plate and would be better served to hand the offensive coordinator duties over to someone else instead of trying to do it all himself. It clearly isn't working.
But, it is damn near impossible to judge the man considering what he is working with. What the Browns are doing is maybe unprecedented in the NFL. This is literally the Hinkie Model brought into the NFL ... and, in that sense, it has worked wonderfully (lots of high draft picks and young talent). But this isn't the NBA and, in a league where good teams can be fleeting and being on either end of the spectrum for too long seems almost impossible, the Browns are doing the impossible.
Is it Sashi's fault? Is it Jimmy Haslam? Or, is this just the plan ... no matter how embarrassing the woes become, this team is being built for 2020, not 2017 ... ?
I don't know the answer. But I'd be semi-surprised if Hue or even Sashi was sh!t canned. However, there are rumors that Peyton Manning is being recruited by Haslam (they are good buddies going back to Tennessee). If that happens, all bets are off. He'd want his own guys.