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Old 12-02-2007, 05:28 PM   #1
dirkdiggler41
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Default Is clutch totaly random?

Ohh hai guys!
We always talk about clutch, but for me it seems like is more random. We have seen Kobe hit a ton of clutch shots, but also missed a ton. We have seen Dirk hit buzzers, but also missed a bunch. We have seen Peja airball open 3pointers in the clutch, we have also seen him hit them with a hand in his face

So is it just me or is more or less random
The only players I feel is really clutch is MJ (he missed a bunch, I am sure) Horry and Miller. Might want to add Billups to that list
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Old 12-02-2007, 05:29 PM   #2
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

i felt clutch is not your ability to hit game winners with 1 second left,


but being mentally tough and not folding under pressure...and delivering when it matters the most on a consistent basis...
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Old 12-02-2007, 05:50 PM   #3
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dirkdiggler41
Ohh hai guys!
We always talk about clutch, but for me it seems like is more random. We have seen Kobe hit a ton of clutch shots, but also missed a ton. We have seen Dirk hit buzzers, but also missed a bunch. We have seen Peja airball open 3pointers in the clutch, we have also seen him hit them with a hand in his face

So is it just me or is more or less random
The only players I feel is really clutch is MJ (he missed a bunch, I am sure) Horry and Miller. Might want to add Billups to that list

Kobe is clutch because he is composed more often under pressure than he isn't. Everyone misses shots, so it is natural that Kobe would've made a bunch and missed a bunch. I wouldn't say Dirk is clutch at all. It seemed pressure got to him when they played the Heat and Warriors in the Playoffs.
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Old 12-02-2007, 06:00 PM   #4
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gabeh1018

but being mentally tough and not folding under pressure...and delivering when it matters the most on a consistent basis...

Anti Dirk
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Old 12-02-2007, 06:05 PM   #5
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

"Clutch" is absolutely not random.

Some people have a greater tendency to perform well when it seems to matter most in games. Some people have a greater tendency to hit what we call "big shots."

Does this mean that they don't miss them? No. It means that they're comfortable taking that shot, they want the shot, and they often hit the shot. Beyond that, there are dozens of variables involved in determining whether or not the shot goes it.

But some people "are clutch." Some people "are not." It's intangible, and so it doesn't lend itself particularly well to statistical analysis, even when looking at shooting percentages in certain time frames and things like that.
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Old 12-02-2007, 07:19 PM   #6
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dirkdiggler41
Ohh hai guys!
We always talk about clutch, but for me it seems like is more random. We have seen Kobe hit a ton of clutch shots, but also missed a ton. We have seen Dirk hit buzzers, but also missed a bunch. We have seen Peja airball open 3pointers in the clutch, we have also seen him hit them with a hand in his face

So is it just me or is more or less random
The only players I feel is really clutch is MJ (he missed a bunch, I am sure) Horry and Miller. Might want to add Billups to that list

You forgot an important one LARRY BIRD
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Old 12-02-2007, 07:27 PM   #7
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

lol@A Dirk fan trying to say the reason Dirk isn't clutch is because there is no such thing as clutch. It's just random haha.
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Old 12-02-2007, 07:28 PM   #8
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gabeh1018
i felt clutch is not your ability to hit game winners with 1 second left,


but being mentally tough and not folding under pressure...and delivering when it matters the most on a consistent basis...

I agree with this; "clutch" just means you have a higher relative probability of making shots in the end of games than those who are not "clutch", which can only be attributed to what you said about mental toughness and handling pressure.

Anti-clutch would then mean that pressure can affect your mechanics or confidence, effectively lowering the percent likelihood of making the shot
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Old 12-02-2007, 07:29 PM   #9
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TMacsOneGoodEye
lol@A Dirk fan trying to say the reason Dirk isn't clutch is because there is no such thing as clutch. It's just random haha.

Even though his underlying message may be skewed slightly by his homeristic ways, I have to agree that "clutch" is just a statistical anomaly
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Old 12-02-2007, 07:37 PM   #10
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

It definitely isn't random or Ray Allen would have made at least one of those free throws the other night. He's practically automatic, and by chance, at the end of the game when it mattered most he missed two back to back? Direct evidence for clutch (or in this instance anti-clutch).
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Old 12-02-2007, 07:42 PM   #11
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Default Re: Is clutch totaly random?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisConley
It definitely isn't random or Ray Allen would have made at least one of those free throws the other night. He's practically automatic, and by chance, at the end of the game when it mattered most he missed two back to back? Direct evidence for clutch (or in this instance anti-clutch).

Or it just could be the fact that Ray Allen is a career 88% free throw shooter, which means that for every 100 FT's he takes, an average of 12 are bound to miss. External stimuli such as pressure, time in the game, how hot/cold someone is, just slightly alter the probability of his shot going in, maybe +/- 5%

He's been playing long enough that his mechanics are so set in stone that he doesn't even have to think about how he shoots, he just does.
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