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Old 02-04-2008, 12:46 AM   #1
monthh
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Default My Mid-Season Breakdown

With the All-Star teams announced, and the NCAA conference season in full swing, I decided to break down what this upcoming draft in a few different ways.

First off, I would say that this is the worst group of seniors in any draft ever, but they are starting to grow on me. Roy Hibbert clearly leads the way and is the only senior that looks like a potential lottery pick at this point.

Shan Foster is having a great season and has moved way up the draft board to join DeVon Hardin as the more likely first round picks.

Some other guys have really stepped up their games as well to put themselves in a position to be drafted in the 1st round. Kyle Weaver has Washington State near the top the rankings (obviously will fall with their recent losses) and looks like a possible 1st rounder. Jason Thompson has had a great career at Rider and is now finally getting some attention. I think he may be the Rodney Stuckey of this draft. He is a very good prospect. D.J. White appears to be healthy and is now becoming the player everyone thought he would be coming out of high school. He is pushing on the 1st round bubble with every great game he plays with Indiana looking like a Final Four threat.

I round out the seniors by talking about the beast that is Glen Dorsey. Wait, I mean Joey Dorsey, the basketball player that plays like a football player. Dorsey has been on a tear lately, and despite is raw offensive game, he could have a shot at the 1st round. Some team will fall in love with him, and I really wouldn't be surprised if that team was in the 1st round.

These are my top 10 seniors, with my prediction of where they will likely fall in the draft:

1. Roy Hibbert-Lottery
2. Shan Foster-20's pick, but with room to move up if he and Vandy can break out of their slump
3. DeVon Hardin-20's pick
4. Jason Thompson-20's pick or early 2nd round
5. D.J. White-25ish or early 2nd round
6. Kyle Weaver-20's pick or early 2nd round
7. Joey Dorsey-Likely 2nd rounder with potential to be taken late in the 1st round
8. Malik Hairston-Early to mid-2nd round
9. Brian Robert-Early 2nd round, chance to move up if a team really needs a PG
10. Geary Claxton-Early to mid-2nd round, but is just holding off a slew of wings players like DeMarcus Nelson, Bryce Taylor, Richard Roby, Marcelus Kemp, and Gary Forbes

Next I take a look at the junior class, which, despite the poor senior class, might be the worst class in this draft. Darren Collison and Tyler Hansbrough seem to lead this class in the middle of the 1st round with solid, hard-nosed, old fashion basketball. Neither of these guys look like they have the tools to be the next Chris Paul or Dwight Howard, but both should find a spot as role players on a team.

After those guys, you just have a bunch of solid guys who just don't grab your attention enough to be great NBA players. Jamont Gordon is a solid scoring point with good size, but doesn't have a great shot and doesn't look for his teammates enough. Joe Alexander is an athletic player who can do a few things pretty well, but nothing really great. Brandon Rush is a solid defender and scorer, but just hasn't taken his game to the next level, which may be caused by his team's balanced approach. Richard Hendrix has again taken his game to a new level and his rebounding and inside scoring will win over scouts, but he may be a bit undersized and slow to become a first round lock. Jeff Pendergraph is having another solid season, but is he flat out good enough to be an NBA player?

After this group of solid, but unspectacular prospects come some interesting prospects that makes me think this class may have a chance to be decent. You have to start off with Chris Douglas-Roberts. He is having another great year for the current #1 team in the nation. He has good size for a SG and has really improved his outside shooting and overall game this season. No reason for this guy to fall out of the 1st round, and yet he seems like a 2nd rounder for some reason.

Next you have to look at Josh Heytvelt. He has been in trouble with the law and with his team a more than one occasion, but still has a spot on the team and while his role is reduced a bit, he is still 6-11 and a decent looking prospect. If he can stay clean, this guy will be a solid NBA player. If not he is a wasted pick. This is the classic risk vs. reward prospect.

Tyrese Rice has had an amazing season for BC, but he still lacks great shooting ability, and while he is a good leader, he doesn't always find his teammates or protect the ball well enough to be a great NBA prospect.

Trent Plaisted is having a real good year for BYU, but at just 6-10 he will have a hard time really dominating the post like he might be able to at 7-0. He looks like a solid prospect who could be a nice scorer/rebounder off the bench, but he just doesn't look like he has a ton of potential to become a guy a team can start and rely on every night.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute has been a guy on the map because he has been part of two UCLA Final Four teams. Despite his defensive ability, Mbah a Moute has never taken is offensive game to the next level. He could be a solid rotation player that a team picks up in the 2nd round, but he might never reach those expectations placed on him after his great NCAA tournament run as a freshman.

Top 15 juniors:

1. Darren Collison-Late lottery or teens
2. Tyler Hansbrough-Teens or early 20's
3. Brandon Rush-20's or early 2nd round
4. Jamont Gordon-20's or early 2nd round
5. Chris Douglas-Roberts-20's or early 2nd round
6. Joe Alexander-20's or early 2nd round
7. Josh Heytvelt-2nd round
8. Jeff Pendergraph-2nd round
9. Tyrese Rice-2nd round
10. Josh Shipp-2nd round
11. Trent Plaisted-2nd round
12. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute-2nd round
13. Eric Maynor-2nd round, perhaps undrafted
14. Kenny George-Unlikely to be drafted, but a potential 2nd rounder, huge upside because of size
15. Alonzo Gee-2nd round or undrafted

This is taking me much longer than I thought, and I still have so much more to talk about with the underclassmen as well as position breakdowns and overall themes that I see developing in this draft. So I will conclude for today, and hopefully spark some debate, and I will continue over the next couple of days when I have time.
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Old 02-05-2008, 05:18 PM   #2
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

How good do you think Hansbrough will be in the pros? Apparently you're pretty high on him, putting him at #2 for the juniors. Do you think he will be an effective energy player coming off the bench?
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:53 AM   #3
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

I think he is pretty much #2 by default. I think this class is pretty jumbled with average prospects. I think the thing about Hansbrough is that he has to be on the right team. People say he isn't athletic, and yet he is on a running team. He works hard and fights inside. He is just a player. I think those are the type of players some coaches look for, and need to round out a "team" instead of a bunch of individual players. Teams who like guys who work harder than have individual skill the Spurs, Pistons, and Jazz would be a really good fit for him I think.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:57 AM   #4
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by monthh
I think he is pretty much #2 by default. I think this class is pretty jumbled with average prospects. I think the thing about Hansbrough is that he has to be on the right team. People say he isn't athletic, and yet he is on a running team. He works hard and fights inside. He is just a player. I think those are the type of players some coaches look for, and need to round out a "team" instead of a bunch of individual players. Teams who like guys who work harder than have individual skill the Spurs, Pistons, and Jazz would be a really good fit for him I think.

Yea he is an energy guy in the pros. Here is a question how do you think he will fair aganist the likes of Ducan, or better yet someone like a Paul Millsap, will he get pushed around or do you think he can hang with them?
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Old 02-09-2008, 05:13 PM   #5
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

I think he could hang with Millsap and certainly wouldn't get pushed around. He is NBA strong and works hard enough to make up any other physical limitations.

As for guys like Duncan, KG, and Amare, who can hang with them? Hansbrough will put a body on them and do the best he can every time out. He won't give up and will be a pest every trip up the court. I don't think he is going to score much on them, or shut them down on D, or take rebounds away from them, but he doesn't need to. He needs to slow them down. Help to contain them. NBA teams are very creative and that is why guys like Chuck Hayes, Kenny Thomas, and Eduaro Najera can have some success. All in the Western Conference against like KG, Amare, and Duncan. I don't think many think he will be a 20 and 10 guy like he is at UNC, but on the right team, he could easilly average half of that and be a guy that does things that don't show up on the stat sheet. As a UNC fan and Hansbrough fan, I don't care where he goes. I could be calling for him to be a top 10 pick like the Love fans, but in the end, it doesn't matter. I would enjoy seeing him go to the Rockets or Spurs or Pistons or Mavs or any other team that has proven to be good franchises and could use a hard working PF because they will use him the best way for him to fit in on the team, whether it is just rebounding off the bench or being a starter who they look to for some scoring in the post.
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Old 02-10-2008, 01:56 AM   #6
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

I definitely think Maynor gets drafted. His game reminds me of Kyle Lowrys. He's the type of player that could really impress in draft camps and work his way into the late 1st round. He's a gamer.
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Old 02-22-2008, 03:13 PM   #7
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

Kenny George is not a top junior... I'd rather have a tree at center just as tall and probably more athletic.
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Old 02-22-2008, 04:01 PM   #8
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

Kenny George is sooo unathletic he doesn't even have the energy to start the game.
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:27 PM   #9
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

not to rain on your parade but you haven't the second best senior in the ncaa this year his name is courtney lee and he is a projected first round draft pick
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Old 02-27-2008, 02:03 AM   #10
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

Yes, I should have mentioned him, but I would have put him down with those other guys at #10. He is having a great year, but he is a little short, a bit skinny, fairly unathletic, is only a decent playmaker/ball handler, and plays for a mid-major. While that is the bad, he can score the ball from anywhere on the court, makes some plays on D, and he could have the chance to make some noise on the national stage if the Hilltoppers make the tournament. This is a case for a very good college player being an average, but interesting NBA prospect. I think he has a legit shot at the 1st round, but I think more likely he is taken somewhere in the 1st round.

And for the record, I have him as the 16th best senior, and on the 2nd round bubble. I just don't see him being all that much better than his peers, but to his credit the SG group in this years draft is crazy. What makes him any different than Gary Forbes, Malik Hairston, Richard Roby, or Reggie Williams.
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Old 02-27-2008, 02:07 AM   #11
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by monthh
Yes, I should have mentioned him, but I would have put him down with those other guys at #10. He is having a great year, but he is a little short, a bit skinny, fairly unathletic, is only a decent playmaker/ball handler, and plays for a mid-major. While that is the bad, he can score the ball from anywhere on the court, makes some plays on D, and he could have the chance to make some noise on the national stage if the Hilltoppers make the tournament. This is a case for a very good college player being an average, but interesting NBA prospect. I think he has a legit shot at the 1st round, but I think more likely he is taken somewhere in the 1st round.

And for the record, I have him as the 16th best senior, and on the 2nd round bubble. I just don't see him being all that much better than his peers, but to his credit the SG group in this years draft is crazy. What makes him any different than Gary Forbes, Malik Hairston, Richard Roby, or Reggie Williams.

im sorry but i see your answer very wrong and when you say he is fairly unathletic im taking you haven't ever actually seen him play on tv or anything like i said he is #2 as a senior espn even agree's but what do they know
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Old 02-28-2008, 12:48 PM   #12
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

I doubt it is ESPN that has him that high, probably just Chad Ford, the guy that said Darko should be taken ahead of LeBron.

If you want to talk about him, say why you think he should go in the 1st round, or what will make him a good NBA player. Also, you should say if you go to Western Kentucky or are a fan of the team or whatever.
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Old 02-28-2008, 05:14 PM   #13
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Default Re: My Mid-Season Breakdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by monthh
I doubt it is ESPN that has him that high, probably just Chad Ford, the guy that said Darko should be taken ahead of LeBron.

If you want to talk about him, say why you think he should go in the 1st round, or what will make him a good NBA player. Also, you should say if you go to Western Kentucky or are a fan of the team or whatever.

Or if he's just trolling.
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