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Old 03-03-2008, 11:02 PM   #31
i seen hippos
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

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Originally Posted by The Big Three
So you watch a bunch of games, but how do you spot out the talent right away? Are you a really good "scout", or do you come into games with a short list prepared of players to watch for and evaluate those players' performances? I'm just curious, because I've started to watch college basketball a good amount of time the past couple of weeks, and I want to learn how to evaluate talent like you and monthh do, it'd just be a nice hobby for me.

Not to put real scouts on a pedestal, but I'm just a lowly young man who watches hundreds of games a year. It's kinda like playing the guitar. I practice 3 hours a day, but the guy who practices 8 hours a day and is trained by a virtuoso is better than me. If I had the job that they did and the experience I can't say they'd be any better than me. I say that just so you realize we aren't experts at this, we're fans who watch a ton of basketball, read a ton of basketball for the joy of it and subsequently know quite a bit.

I don't go into any game with a list. I just watch and get a sense of everything. I'll rewatch some games if something really piques my interest.

Just watch and you'll see what players tend to make it in the NBA as well.
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Old 03-04-2008, 03:52 AM   #32
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

I can't add too much more to the guys that Hippos did, but I don't completly agree. With Calathes, he had a great freshman year which really reminds me of Matt Walsh from a few years ago for them. Walsh never rounded out his game, and it now no where to be found. I think if Calathes could countinue to work on his game (he doesn't need to work on one thing, he needs to get better at everything) he could be a starter in the NBA. While he needs to work on everything, he is already pretty good at everything as it stands now. If he improves like he should, I think this guy is going in the top 20 next year.

I think Vasquez is one of the most underrated players in terms of draft stock right now. He is only a sophomore and can do so many things on the court. Unlike Calathes, he has one weakness and that is shooting. If he works on his shot, he is going to be deadly.

The thing with these two is that they just don't have the potential that top prospects have. They have great height which helps, but their lack of athletic ability hurts. I don't think they will ever be able to take their games to that next level that a Devin Harris or Baron Davis could because of athletic ability.

As for Jerrells, he is kind of the worst of these two. Not a great shooter, not a great passer, and only 6-1. But that doesn't mean he isn't ahead of them even at this point. He is more athletic, handles the ball well, and has shown a lot of leadership in helping lead Baylor back to respectability.

I used to like Rush a lot, but one of the key things I look for is being able to take over a game, even if it is only a 4 minute stretch. I think Rush could be like his brother Kareem, but I don't see anything more than a nice backup swingman. At one point it looked like he might become a lottery pick and a potential #1 or #2 scorer, but he just never went to that next level.

I think I may look at prospects a little differently than Hippos. I just kind of take in an overview of a player. Scouts can pick out things like a guy always goes right, or doesn't dribble as well with his left hand, or doesn't have the foot speed to make great post moves. I just try to get an overall idea of what a player can do, what his weakness are, and I just have followed college and NBA games with the NBA draft in the back of mind since the 1995 draft. I think watching the NBA is just as important as watching college players because you get a good idea of what kind of players will do well and which things indicate that a player not do well. I don't have time to watch a million full games, but I catch a lot of pieces of games.

I also don't mind using other sources. I may only see a guy play once all year, so if he goes and scores 11pts on 4 of 14 shooting, I may not think he is a great prospect despite the athletic ability and playmaking ability I saw with him. So instead of writing him off based on one game, I listen to the announcers and they will either say "he is having an off game and usually shoots the ball much better" or "he needs to learn what a good shot is" which gives you a good indication of what he can do. I also read all the draft sites and pick up bits and peices, but I never trust them fully. They are all biased and they aren't always perfect. People take them at face value, but what is to say they haven't just seen a guy once?

I also use statistics a lot because while you can't ever get the whole story, you can see things that make a guy a better or worse prospect in my eyes. One key thing is that people don't look at mintues a lot. DeAndre Jordan's stats don't look great, but he only plays 21mpg. You give him the 30mpg that Lopez gets, and you can probably say that he is getting 13pts and 8 rebounds. That looks much better than 9 and 6. Plus Lopez missed the 1st month of the season and is more fresh at this point.

Another thing you have to look at is who they are playing with and against. Lopez plays on a team of solid guys who are big and solid. They also rebound very well. You put him on another team his stats might look a bit better. I also see guys get 19 and 8 early in the season and everyone thinks they are killing people, but you look at who they played and it is a team that doesn't have anyone over 6-7 and are not athletic.

Basically I just try to take everything in and my brain jumbles it all up and then I spit it back out in this forum. I don't see each player 10 times a year, but I also don't just look at the numbers and decide how good they will be. I make my own opinions on guys, but I also listen to others and take into account of what they say because they may have seen different games or have a different perspective. The only time I don't take something into account is when someone is obviously biased towards a player or team.
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Old 03-04-2008, 04:10 AM   #33
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

And I would say that you are well on your way to where you want to be in looking at these prospects. You start by looking at the stars, and before you know it you are noticing that Gordon is playing with a big man that is pretty good as well. You watch UCLA to see Love and you realize that the team they are playing has a freshman guard that is pretty good. You watch a game and a guy scores 24 and gets 4 rebounds and assists. He looks like a great player and is putting up averages of over 20/4/4 a game and looks like a future player. But then you need to realize that he is playing against mid-majors, he is only 6-3, and he isn't that athletic.

The hardest part is to eliminate guys. You can watch any game and see a guy that plays well and looks like he could be an NBA player. You just can't be affraid to look at a guys faults and realize that a guy looks so good because he is just the best player on the court.

On the other hand you can watch a game, and some guy comes in and plays 20 minutes, but doesn't strike you as much except he had a great dunk, knocked down a 3 pointer, and seems to be about 6-10. You then look into it and you realize that he is a freshman and is playing behind a 3 year starting senior that brings the experience that the freshman can't bring. Just because that senior is averaging 14 and 5 and is a solid 6-9 doesn't mean that he is a better prospect than the 6-10 freshman who can jump out of the building and hit outside shots, and only gets 8 and 3. Next season all of a sudden that freshman is getting 16 and 8 and you don't know where he came from. You can see that potential as a freshman though despite limited minutes and numbers that don't jump out at you.
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Old 03-04-2008, 07:44 PM   #34
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

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Dude, no.... Sorry, but no! Tyrus Thomas isn't going to change Charlotte from borderline playoffs (if even that) to #4 in the Eastern Conference this year. Just isn't happening.

Meh, rough day, Lakers win and my little friend Derek is getting giddy saying that the Spurs will lose to the Lakers simply because they "run a bit faster".

If they did draft Thomas it would work out.
1. He would draw attention away from Okafor, keeping him from being doubled all the time.
2. He will bring a shot-blocking ability to compliment Okafor's.
3. Okafor's averages would shoot up instintly, if Charlotte had another big man who could score.
4. Gerald Wallace is a rising star, he will make the all-star team next year, and if they had Thomas that will be one serious frontcourt.
5. Okafor, Thomas, Wallace, Richardson, Felton together seem to work pretty well in NBA Live.
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Old 03-04-2008, 08:22 PM   #35
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

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Originally Posted by UConnCeltics
If they did draft Thomas it would work out.
1. He would draw attention away from Okafor, keeping him from being doubled all the time.
2. He will bring a shot-blocking ability to compliment Okafor's.
3. Okafor's averages would shoot up instintly, if Charlotte had another big man who could score.
4. Gerald Wallace is a rising star, he will make the all-star team next year, and if they had Thomas that will be one serious frontcourt.
5. Okafor, Thomas, Wallace, Richardson, Felton together seem to work pretty well in NBA Live.

NBA Live doesn't mean a thing, if you're good at it than you can win with pretty much any team. And no, a 2nd year would not make that much of a difference!!! I think you're overvaluing Thomas big time. Tyrus Thomas would not make that huge of a difference!
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Old 03-05-2008, 04:51 PM   #36
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

Well if they draft Michael Beasley he would make that kind of impact. Then would you accept my idea they are a top team in the east with the beast? ( as long as they re-sign Okafor )
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Old 03-05-2008, 07:24 PM   #37
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

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Well if they draft Michael Beasley he would make that kind of impact. Then would you accept my idea they are a top team in the east with the beast? ( as long as they re-sign Okafor )

Not during Beasley's first season, but maybe a 2-3 years down the line they could become a solid playoff team, and by his 4th-5th year they might be winning the conference. But Tyrus Thomas came out as what, a Freshman? He's not going to be a big impact player his first two years.
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Old 03-05-2008, 08:22 PM   #38
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

Yup, Thomas came out as a freshman just as Beasley will.
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Old 03-05-2008, 10:15 PM   #39
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

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Yup, Thomas came out as a freshman just as Beasley will.

Tyrus Thomas came from a weak draft class (IMO), and that's what put him high. There are big concerns with him on offense, and I don't think Tyrus would be much of a help down low offensively to Okafor, which makes that pick not as good as you believe, but I think Thomas would be a better selection than Morrison. He would give Charlotte some additional help down low, and if nothing else he probably couldn't get any worse than Ammo.

I haven't watched Beasley too extensively, but I now believe that I was wrong at the beginning of the year when I made a big deal about his character. I no longer think that will be a big issue, though he may suffer in his career from not being motivated enough. Would I take him number one overall now? Yes; he is the best talent in this draft IMO, and I don't have any hard feelings on him now. Just clearing things up since I haven't formally acknowledged that since the days when I was pretty vocal about my disliking of him.

The "Madness" is starting now, as some conference tournaments are underway. I will be free to watch as much basketball as I want this weekend (I would be watching some right now if I didn't have Comp Lit pages to read [~260 for today and tomorrow]), and I haven't checked the College Schedule, but I think I'll take some time off tomorrow to watch NBA on TNT, and on Friday I think I'll watch some NBA as well, and then Saturday is going to be devoted entirely to college basketball. I'm hoping to get an last-minute look at some of the teams I haven't seen this year before tournament time, and hopefully I'll be able to relay some of my observations back to ISH.

Okay, I just checked the schedule for this weekend, and here are some matchups that I think I'll watch:

13 Louisville @ 10 Georgetown
7 Stanford @ USC
6 Kansas @ Texas A&M

All of those games are on CBS, and then I'll get to the MVP game of the weekend, 1 North Carolina @ 5 Duke. I might try to catch parts of 20 Marquette @ Syracuse. This looks like a big week, as all of the above mentioned higher-ranked teams except Georgetown will be playing on the road, which could cause for upsets. And Georgetown even has a shot at getting upset, as Louisville is not far off in the rankings.

On Sunday I think I will try and catch:

Oklahoma State @ 9 Texas
Florida @ Kentucky
Maybe some Big Ten action on the Big Ten Network

I kind of like watching Oklahoma State, and I think it'll be worth the time. I want to watch Augustin again, and Kentucky is always a good view for me, and SEC is pretty fun to watch. Since I live in the Big Ten area, I think I'll watch some of their games, too. Should be a fun, stress-free weekend (finally!)
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Old 03-06-2008, 07:46 AM   #40
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

Well tonight 14 UConn plays against Providence, and Providence won the first time around so it should be a good game. And in that weak draft class, I thought the Raptors should have taken Rudy Gay.
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Old 03-06-2008, 09:57 AM   #41
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Default Re: The March Madness thread

Memphis is going to win, if not North Carolina
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Old 03-08-2008, 04:29 PM   #42
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Default Re: The March Madness Thread

I don't want to see this thread go into the abyss of no posting so I'll do the honors of putting some life back in it. Where would you guys say Duke's Nelson will go? I think he could be a solid wingman in the NBA.
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Old 03-08-2008, 04:39 PM   #43
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Default Re: The March Madness Thread

This thread won't go into the abyss; most conference tournaments haven't even started yet. It'll liven up. I'm gonna watch UNC-Duke tonight, maybe I'll get a good idea of Nelson there.
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Old 03-19-2008, 03:21 PM   #44
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Default Re: The March Madness Thread

March Madness is here and I watched some NIT last night. I think I'm going to follow that as well as the NCAA Tourney; it was pretty enjoyable. I think I should have watched the Mt. Saint Mary's/Coppin State game last night, it sounded like a good one. Man, I need a TiVo; so many good shows/games on last night that I wasn't able to watch.
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Old 03-22-2008, 12:10 AM   #45
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Default Re: The March Madness Thread

Crazy day today, if Villanova keeps their lead then there will be two #12 v. #13 matchups in Round Two, meaning that two of those teams will make the Sweet 16. Anyone got a short list of guys whose stock could rise? Courtney Lee of Western Kentucky is probably one of them if his team is able to win.
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