My league is a points league(one assist is the same than a block, for example).
Would you make this trade:
butler + Baron davis ===> carmelo anthony + kevin martin
I have caron butler and baron davis in my roster, and I talked with one person in my league to make that trade in the offseason.
I know that maybe he will not accept, but I wanted to know if you think this is a good trade for me, or why you would not make the trade.
My roster is:
CF - Carlos Boozer (UTA)
CF - Zach Randolph (NYK)
F - Caron Butler (WAS)
G - Baron Davis (GSW)
G - Brandon Roy (POR)
FG - Josh Howard (DAL)
G - Jose Calderon (TOR)
GF - Mike Miller (MEM)
F - Ryan Gomes (MIN)
CF - Joakim Noah (CHI)
FC - Nenad Krstic (NJN)
C - Greg Oden (POR)
CF - Jeff Foster (IND)
CF - Paul Millsap (UTA)
F - Danny Granger (IND)
F - Rashard Lewis (ORL)
G - Mo Williams (MIL)
G - Randy Foye (MIN)
GF - Richard Hamilton (DET)
How do you think Kevin Martin will do next season?
I think Kevin Martin will still be a legit option for points and 3's.
I'm expecting anywhere from 22-25 pts from him next year. It also has a bit to do with what Ron Artest does, though I thought he said he wanted to stay. Nonetheless, there isn't many scorers in the lineup, just Salmons and Garcia off the bench.
But, you also need to consider Baron Davis's injury history. He's very injury prone.
butler + Baron davis ===> carmelo anthony + kevin martin
Ok, if we break down all the players involved...
Baron Davis is the best player in the deal, he put in 82 games for the first time in 6 years last year because he got a new trainer and training regiment(don't even think he had one full time before last year)... even his FT% has become respectable. He has become the player that many knew he could be... don't sleep on him because of injuries, he is making a concious effort to put them behind him, where as he just didn't care before the last couple of years.
Caron Butler is the 2nd best player in the deal which leans the deal big time against you. He is a do it all guy who has become a triple double threat. His development has been consistant and still has some room to grow, reaching his peak next season probably. Butler is a bigger injury risk IMO than Davis at this point. He plays tough ball, but is fragile, he breaks bones and gets strains/sprains too easily(like Gerald Wallace), but when healthy is a top notch fantasy guy. He will be a fantasy stud with or without Areans/Jamison, although without he will be less of an assist guy, taking away his triple double threat.
Melo is still looking for his game, AI has retarded his development and unless Denver moves AI this off season I wouldn't expect much more from Melo than what he gave you this season. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid option and can almost carry your scoring category, but he needs to be let loose and with AI there it isn't going to happen.
Martin has been given the reigns in Sactown, he is the primary option there, but his fantasy game is more like Michael Redd than anything... he is a scorer and will throw in some other stats here and there. He is a high percentage guy across the board so he is an effective 5 category guy which makes him valuable, but you get what you get with him and shouldn't expect much more(again, ala Redd).
All in all, I would say this is a HORRIBLE trade for you and you should definatly not do it. You gain almost nothing by doing this deal(maybe some shooting percentages). Even if AI gets traded, that still only bring Melo on par with Butler and you are basically giving up a great PG for scorer who would be a 2nd option or "just another guy" on a team first oreinted team like the Pistons or Spurs(note, Sactown and the Bucks are bad teams with arguably decent supporting casts and have these score only kind of guys as their "stars").
Ok, so if I have understood your opinion, I must wait one year until I try to make the trade.
Or more yeah, Melo is still developing, but is being stunted by AI, Martin, you get what you see... meanwhile, both Davis and Butler are in or going into their prime and the next couple of season will be the best of their careers, and considering how good of players they are, you shouldn't be looking outside of the top 10 fantasy guys when looking to trade them, especially together. Think Paul, Marion, Kobe, LBJ, DWade territory, I mean, all those guys have their own flaws, you should be looking to trade up, not down.
I might make this deal. What people are missing about Baron is that this is a walk year for him so it's no coincident he put together a great season and a healthy season. I hate players coming off free agency. He also might leave GS and/or Don Nelson might not be his coach, which will hurt his numbers. Caron is simply an injury risk. He might also be playing for a terrible team soon if Gil and Jamison bolt. Or, if they both stay, his numbers will regress with Arenas back in action.
Kmart will have a better season I think and Artest might not be in town. Matin is the primary option and is young and improving. Melo I think is very UNDERrated in fantasy. Look at his numbers. His bds were up to 8ish, his dimes are very nice for a scoring SF. His %'s are great, his steals were up above 1 and even chipped in ok blks. Add 25+ pts and you have a very solid player. I think if you removed TOs, Melo was close to top 20 in fantasy, which people are surprised to hear.
It is a risk, but if you wait, and Baron leaves GS and Gil and Jamison re-sign with the Wizards, the GM you're playing with may not be as into that deal. I might actually ask for more, add a 3rd player each, that helps you in positions or in stats you are after just based on the name value you're giving up. Don't try and hit a homerun in the 3rd part, but a nice upgrade.