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Old 05-20-2008, 12:35 PM   #16
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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But someone please explain to Ford its a LOTTERY. He doesn't understand.
yes it's a lottery but a loaded lottery. i think that's what he is addressing from the snippit you posted.

yes being the worse doesn't gaurantee a number one pick, but it does gurantee you the best chance at being the number one pick, and in the sense it's not a true lottery because not everyone involved has the same chance.

which makes me think they really should ditch the thing, it was created to stop teams from tanking but has it done that? teams still may be tanking to increase their odds but i wonder if now more teams tank then before?
before you had to be the worse to get that pick, now you don't have to be the worse, you can be the 5th worse team and still have a shot at. so maybe now there's less teams do the the "big tank" job but more teams doing minor tanks to keep themselves in the hunt...
not saying it's true, just tossing it out for discussion
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Old 05-20-2008, 12:39 PM   #17
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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Originally Posted by gts
yes it's a lottery but a loaded lottery. i think that's what he is addressing from the snippit you posted.

yes being the worse doesn't gaurantee a number one pick, but it does gurantee you the best chance at being the number one pick, and in the sense it's not a true lottery because not everyone involved has the same chance.

which makes me think they really should ditch the thing, it was created to stop teams from tanking but has it done that? teams still may be tanking to increase their odds but i wonder if now more teams tank then before?
before you had to be the worse to get that pick, now you don't have to be the worse, you can be the 5th worse team and still have a shot at. so maybe now there's less teams do the the "big tank" job but more teams doing minor tanks to keep themselves in the hunt...
not saying it's true, just tossing it out for discussion

Its a valid point, I dont think you can really stop a team from tanking. When its over, its over. I dont like the fact that the lotto is not televised and is so secretive. It wreaks of shadiness. And it adds to the overall suspect feeling the league has with crooked refs and one-sided trades. Is it the NBA or the WWF?
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Old 05-20-2008, 12:46 PM   #18
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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Originally Posted by tontoz
You aren't making any sense. Nobody is talking about getting rid of the lottery and teams will tank regardless of what the percentages are.

The fact that there is a lottery will prevent the worst team from being a sure thing to get the number 1 pick.

But right now the team with the worst record has a 25% chance to get the 1st pick and a 36% chance to get the 4th pick. That doesn't make sense.


Uhm.. did I mention the "bad-at-math-and-probabilities"-syndrome?
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Old 05-20-2008, 12:50 PM   #19
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

I love this game.
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Old 05-20-2008, 12:55 PM   #20
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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Originally Posted by tontoz
You aren't making any sense. Nobody is talking about getting rid of the lottery and teams will tank regardless of what the percentages are.

The fact that there is a lottery will prevent the worst team from being a sure thing to get the number 1 pick.

But right now the team with the worst record has a 25% chance to get the 1st pick and a 36% chance to get the 4th pick. That doesn't make sense.

Wow dude, how bad are you at math?



Heck, it's common sense. Don't injure your brain thinking about it.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:07 PM   #21
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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Originally Posted by biisak
Uhm.. did I mention the "bad-at-math-and-probabilities"-syndrome?


Yeah and you seem to be sufferiing from it.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:09 PM   #22
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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Originally Posted by ElPigto
Wow dude, how bad are you at math?



Heck, it's common sense. Don't injure your brain thinking about it.

What is common sense is that there is no reason to have 14 teams in the lottery. I understand perfectly well why the probabilities are the way they are. I just disagree with the way the lottery is set up as does Ford.

Realistically the lottery shouldn't have more than 5 or 6 teams in it. If you weigh the probabilities fairly evenly between them then that will not give an unfair advantage to teams that tanked the whole season.

It doesn't make much sense for a team with the 7th worst record or the 10th worst record to get the top pick.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:10 PM   #23
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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Originally Posted by ElPigto
Wow dude, how bad are you at math?



Heck, it's common sense. Don't injure your brain thinking about it.
I think he was saying that it does not make sense to weight the odds like that, not that the math itself does not make sense.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:22 PM   #24
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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Originally Posted by 305Baller
Its a valid point, I dont think you can really stop a team from tanking. When its over, its over. I dont like the fact that the lotto is not televised and is so secretive. It wreaks of shadiness. And it adds to the overall suspect feeling the league has with crooked refs and one-sided trades. Is it the NBA or the WWF?
The Fact that there are representatives from the participating teams should remove any doubt people have of the validity of the Draft Lottery. Not saying the draft is perfect, but it's a hell of a lot better then the 1985 NBA Draft Lottery.
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The actual lottery process will take place prior to the beginning of ESPN's presentation, with NBA officials, representatives of the participating teams, selected media members and the accounting firm of Ernst & Young in attendance.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:24 PM   #25
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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Originally Posted by vert48
I think he was saying that it does not make sense to weight the odds like that, not that the math itself does not make sense.

Exactly.

Why have 14 teams in the lottery? I haven't seen any of these know-it-alls explain the logic behind that.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:31 PM   #26
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

Quote:
Originally Posted by tontoz
What is common sense is that there is no reason to have 14 teams in the lottery. I understand perfectly well why the probabilities are the way they are. I just disagree with the way the lottery is set up as does Ford.

Realistically the lottery shouldn't have more than 5 or 6 teams in it. If you weigh the probabilities fairly evenly between them then that will not give an unfair advantage to teams that tanked the whole season.

It doesn't make much sense for a team with the 7th worst record or the 10th worst record to get the top pick.

Alright, I can see your point and apologize for my previous comment.

I don't believe teams that tanked the whole season should be rewarded with high picks. I like the way the probabilities are worked out because it only gives those crap teams a nice advantage to come out victorious, but at the same time it makes them think twice about tanking.

Fans do not deserve to watch a team tank. I know some teams are just bad, but in essense, I see no reasonable excuse to lost 20 games or less in the NBA. It's painful for those who pay to watch a team that's tanking.

I guess I am more like Jeff Van Gundy and I don't think teams that tank should be rewarded for being bad. I do not think that the same odds should be given to every team in the lotto either, but the way the system is ran now is possibly the best way to make certain teams not tank.

Imagine if we had the coinflip system, we'd have a lot worst teams than we do now and as a fan of the game I sure as hell don't want to watch crappy basketball.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:35 PM   #27
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

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but the way the system is ran now is possibly the best way to make certain teams not tank.

But it isn't working. Teams are still tanking and there is no logical reason for teams that just missed the playoffs to have a chance at a top 3 pick.

There is going to be a certain amount of tanking regardless of the system used. But the way the system is set up now makes it harder for truly bad teams to rebuild.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:44 PM   #28
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

Quote:
Originally Posted by tontoz
But it isn't working. Teams are still tanking and there is no logical reason for teams that just missed the playoffs to have a chance at a top 3 pick.

There is going to be a certain amount of tanking regardless of the system used. But the way the system is set up now makes it harder for truly bad teams to rebuild.

I could get behind an equally-weighted lotto of say the worse six teams, with 7-14 just picking in inverse order. Of course then you have teams who don't even have to tank in hope of THE worst record, just one of the 6 worst records. Maybe something like the top (worst) 3 have a drawing for their order, then the next 3 have a seperate drawing for picks 4-6, then the picks just go in order.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:45 PM   #29
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

Quote:
Originally Posted by tontoz
But it isn't working. Teams are still tanking and there is no logical reason for teams that just missed the playoffs to have a chance at a top 3 pick.

There is going to be a certain amount of tanking regardless of the system used.
But the way the system is set up now makes it harder for truly bad teams to rebuild.

Well then, I like the risk. Teams keep taking the risk and most aren't rewarded and quite frankly, I like it that way. The odds of team who just missed the playoffs have a pretty slim chance of winning the lottery. Go back and search all the teams that have won the lottery and tell me how many were seeded 8-14.

Most lottery winners have been 1-7 worst seeded records, so once again I see nothing wrong with the way the system is right now. It's not like we are having the 10th worst record in the league winning every single year or every other three years.
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Old 05-20-2008, 01:47 PM   #30
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Default Re: Chad Ford is a moron - doesn't understand lottery

I hope the Golden State Warriors win it, just so all the columnists and analysts can complain about the lottery system. It'll be so predictable.


Go WARRIORS!!!!!
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