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Old 05-22-2008, 12:35 PM   #1
benJAMin
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Default What kind of numbers do you expect from Kidd in Dallas?

He's yet another year older, but he'll have much more experience in the Dallas system than he did at the end of last year.

Kidd's fg and 3pt %'s were horrible in New Jersey, but he saw a dramatic rise in both once he joined the Mavs (from 36% to 42% for fg%, and from 35% to 46% in 3pt%, although he took fewer in both cats).

It looks like his scoring will remain about the same, along with his dimes relatively, but his rebounds will take a hit with the Mavs. Given these, along with a boost in %'s and steals, where do you draft Kidd this coming season?
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Old 05-22-2008, 01:33 PM   #2
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Default Re: What kind of numbers do you expect from Kidd in Dallas?

It's hard to know without doing a top 30 chart say, because there are guys that have vaulted themselves into the top 20-30, which of course means guys have to drop. Is Kidd one of them? I think he'll be a sneaky pick in the 3rd round and great in the 4th, but I can't see myself, given all the alternatives, taking him in the first 2 rounds. I always like to have other GMs reach for those types of players.
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Old 05-22-2008, 02:11 PM   #3
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Default Re: What kind of numbers do you expect from Kidd in Dallas?

His age WILL catch up to him next year, the expectations on him will be much more in Dallas than they have been recently in NJ.

If he can manage 40%/30%/80% with 1 trey, 9ppg, 6rpg, 8apg, 1.5spg I would consider that a great season at his age, but it would be under expectation for him.

He is a 4th or 5th rounder(top 48-60) player, that's it. Dallas isn't going to be the team we have seen the last couple of years and this may be the season that drives Kidd onto the bench and maybe out of the league as a player within 2 years.
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Old 06-12-2008, 02:47 AM   #4
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Default Re: What kind of numbers do you expect from Kidd in Dallas?

I think that age will definitely be a factor, but an even bigger contribution a decrease in production is the fact that he isn't a proper fit in Dallas. He doesn't have the right type of players around him to where he is most effective. That said he will still give you about 9/8/7/2 IMO
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Old 06-21-2008, 06:48 PM   #5
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Default Re: What kind of numbers do you expect from Kidd in Dallas?

I think his numbers will stay about the same they were last year, maybe dip a little...8-10 assists, 6-7 rebounds, ~1.5 steals, 1.5 threes. As for efficiency, I expect the usual: about 41-42% FG, 80%FT, 3-4 turnovers. His scoring will be pretty much nonexistant(around 10 a game), but he'll still be a solid fantasy contributor due to his versatility(asts,rebs,3s,stls,FT).
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Old 06-22-2008, 07:28 PM   #6
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Default Re: What kind of numbers do you expect from Kidd in Dallas?

I'm not sure.. it really depends more on the system - I think people are not giving enough emphasis on the coaching change. I didn't really watch the Pacers that much so I could be wrong, but if I am not mistaken Rick Carlisle is more of a half court type. During his tenure with the Pacers, 03~07, Jamaal Tinsleys assists averages were: 5.8, 6.4, 5.0, 6.9. Where as the other three years he got: 8.1, 7.5 & 8.4. Thats quite a noticeable difference, obviously there are other factors involved, but I would think its not a coincidence.

Therefore I fully expect Kidds assists number to decline from 9.5 (what he got during the short stint with Avery Johnson). Even though Carlisle said in the press conference he would play to the players strengths, every coach makes those type of statements when they join a new team, so I would take it with a grain of salt. And as people said, he's another year older, plus he's also playing in the Olympics.. its very possible he starts off the season really slow due to tired legs and adjustment to the new system.
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Old 06-22-2008, 07:43 PM   #7
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Default Re: What kind of numbers do you expect from Kidd in Dallas?

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.Z.W.
I'm not sure.. it really depends more on the system - I think people are not giving enough emphasis on the coaching change. I didn't really watch the Pacers that much so I could be wrong, but if I am not mistaken Rick Carlisle is more of a half court type. During his tenure with the Pacers, 03~07, Jamaal Tinsleys assists averages were: 5.8, 6.4, 5.0, 6.9. Where as the other three years he got: 8.1, 7.5 & 8.4. Thats quite a noticeable difference, obviously there are other factors involved, but I would think its not a coincidence.

Therefore I fully expect Kidds assists number to decline from 9.5 (what he got during the short stint with Avery Johnson). Even though Carlisle said in the press conference he would play to the players strengths, every coach makes those type of statements when they join a new team, so I would take it with a grain of salt. And as people said, he's another year older, plus he's also playing in the Olympics.. its very possible he starts off the season really slow due to tired legs and adjustment to the new system.

NICE call on the coaching change. I still think Kidd will be better this coming season than he was last year, at least record-wise for the Mavs. As for fantasy, I don't think Dallas has ever been a great team for the PG to accumulate assists due to their 1-on-1 style with Howard and Dirk, but I do think that Kidd will get his FG% up and assists down a little from ~10 apg, maybe to ~8. I don't know where I got the number from, but I just think Kidd still has something left offensively, not as much defensively (although he'll still get his 1.5-2 spg) and that will make him still an elite PG in terms of fantasy.
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Old 06-22-2008, 10:26 PM   #8
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Default Re: What kind of numbers do you expect from Kidd in Dallas?

The coaching change might actually help Kidd. Avery used him as a weak side 3 pt shooter a ton, which isn't exactly Kidd's strength. Now RIck Carlisle isn't an offensive coach, but I expect Kidd to be a quality fantasy PG that can be had in the 3rd or 4th...maybe even later, that will outperform his draft position.

The Mavs played a lot of 1 of 1 etc pre Kidd. When Kidd came to town their offense picked it up and Dirk took off. I think he'll have 1 more year of quality numbers. Less scoring is ok, as it means less impact on your FG%.
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