I am curious as to where Elton Brand becomes a safe pick, if he ever becomes safe. I thought he played well near the end of the season and seemed to get his legs under him rather quickly without any setbacks. Does Thornton cut into his production or does he have the typical season we would expect: 24pts 10boards and a couple blocks?
I see him worthy of a late 2nd to more likely a middle 3rd rounder. You gotta believe Gasol, Boozer, Duncan, KG, and Smith would be picked ahead.
Actually, I'd probably only take KG and possibly Smoov before him this year. I really think Brand will come back in great form, provided that he sticks with the Clippers. If he goes somewhere else, it could be better or it could be worse. I dont see Thornton stealing much from him, and if they lose Maggette it might even be better for Brand's numbers.
My thoughts on the other guys you mentioned: Pau wont rebound or block like crazy with Bynum and Odom surrounding him, and his fg% could take a hit if he takes more jumpers as a PF in Los Angeles. Just like last year, I'm not taking him in the top ten this year either.
Boozer ended the season with a fizzle, relatively speaking. If Okur is still healthy, Boozer's boards take a big hit. Although his fg% and ft% are nice, he doesnt block enough to be your #1 big man, so his value takes even more of a hit if Okur is grabbing all of his boards every other night.
Duncan keeps getting older, although his stats arent taking huge nosedives at any point yet. I'm not saying that this is the season where they do, but I wouldnt be spending a second round pick on Duncan this coming season either, so I have Brand ahead of him too.
I'd take Brand anywhere around 10 and beyond, but that's just me. He's been relatively healthy throughout his season, so the achilles thing was more of a fluke than anything IMO. Given the way he looked in the last 8 games this year, and with another offseason of strengthening and conditioning, I like how he'll be back this year, looking to make a statement and regain his position among the top bigs in the league.
I guess when you break it down, and forget about health and assume Brand will be back in his usual form, he IS better than the majority of the guys listed. I keep forgetting that Bynum even exists now, but he will eat into Gasol's numbers. Duncan just isn't as productive as Brand no matter how you spin it. I still like Boozer, but agree that without blocks, he can't be your best big.
I really just feel like my post was a big waste. I guess I was forcing the conversation by throwing out all the players i thought were variables. I think I would take him late second though in the end just to be safe. Good points though Benjamin.
Your thread was def not a waste at all man. That's what makes fantasy so much fun - everyone can argue a perspective until the numbers are added up at the end of an entire season. I'm curious to hear others' thoughts on him, because I'm probably overrating him in my own mind, as I loved having him two season ago and am looking to steal him again for great value.
Taking players coming back from major injuries is unjustified with high picks. Gil and wade were huge dissappoinments in the top 10. But i am giving Brand a pass on this strategy. I have a great feeling about him. Or maybe thats just my heart wanting him to come back strong.
Dont forget about his good ft%.
With a decent PG.
Thornton producing outside(opening up the post).
Caveman healthy and tearing it up.
Mags actually taking less shots.
Clippers can be good on paper...never in real life.
For sure Im looking to take him high this year..he came back from injury pretty well and I would expect him to continue into next year..I think Kamans value is going to drop because of this .
With Brand around. I see the 2 working symbiotic ally. Each pulling energy from eachother. Opening scoring lanes and rebounding lanes. If anything...less blocks chances at blocks may result....respect for the Clippers big men...never.
Brand could be another one of those sleeper picks. I remember I picked him up late last season when he made his end of season comeback and I was very happy and surprised with his production. Now with a full off-season of rehab under his belt I think that he will return to at least an 18/10 player and would be a solid 2nd rounder.