I probably wouldn't draft any of them except for Beasley, Oden and maybe Rose/Mayo. With Portland getting Bayless and Fernandez, and don't forget that Blake was the starter last season, I have no clue how minutes are going to be spread out there. I wouldn't touch any of them in my drafts.
I think Beasley will have the best numbers (he did get "injured" already today though, which always makes you think for a second) and I can't project rounds too well, but I would say 8th-10th round at worst for him. As for Oden, he should be in that same range just because of center value and he'll grab rebounds/block shots. I think his scoring will be inconsistent though.
Mayo and Rose, I can see having similar statistical seasons. Mayo's going to have some inconsistent PT even without Mike Miller there since he's going to get some run at the 1, no doubt about it and he's rookie, gotta expect the bumps in the road. I would put him as a late rounder in shallow leagues. Rose, who knows as of right now... Hinrich's still there and there's no telling how the rotation will look at the beginning of the season. I don't doubt he'll be a hot commodity at the end of fantasy seasons though
We won't have a clue on some of these guys until rosters are finalized but the only rookie I would consider taking in the top 50 is OJ Mayo. Mike Miller and Juan Carlos Navarro are both gone. Their departure only increases the scoring void left after Pau Gasol was traded.
Even then other people always overvalue the elite rookies and they never fall to me.
Other rookies that could contribute early and might be worth a pickup somewhere during the season (in no particular order)
DJ Augustin - only if Felton is moved like rumors hint toward
Joe Alexander - Bucks are shopping Villa
Brook Lopez - size and offensive game will eventually put him ahead of Boone
Marreese Speights - depends on what happens with Philly's PF situation
Marc Gasol - starting over Darko isn't out of the question
Roy Hibbert - only centers on the roster are Foster and Nesterovic. If it looks like Indy won't make the playoffs, perhaps they'll start developing him.
The only 3 I would look to draft in non keeper leagues are Mayo, Oden and Beasley. I think you can expect a top 70 ranking for Oden, so that speaks to a 7th round pick being good value. Mayo could get a lot of run for Memphis, but there are a lot of wings available so I wouldn't draft him probably at all. Beasley still has Marion and Haslem around which doesn't help his fantasy prospects.
Westbrook if he wins the PG job outright could put up some Rondo type numbers and Love I think is the other guy that could get significant minutes out of the gate.
Beasley/Oden are the only two guys I even consider taking, both surrounded by good talent and big man are safer picks because they won't drag down your TO and FG%. Hortford was a solid late pick last year.
Oden in the 70-80 range, Beasley 80-90, depending who's there... definitely not going to pass up a Dalembert type guy over these two.
Last edited by bigkingsfan : 07-02-2008 at 11:49 PM.