Re: ESPN: Top 100 Prospects For 2008 Draft (OJ Mayo is #1)
The whole knock on him is that he is a SG in a PG body. I know it isn't fair, but when looking at prospects, that is a red flag for sure.
I also think the fact that he has been on the map for so long hurts as well. People have seen him and moved on. Again, it isn't fair, but there is a "flavor of the month" thing that goes on in basketball. Lofton was one of the "hot" players a couple years ago, but now, a couple years later, and with a year left to go (seems like he has been playing for like 6 years), he is just kind of passed over.
Even college basketball fans pass him over. Sure he won SEC POY, which is a great honor, but you don't really see him mentioned a lot by fans and the guys on ESPN or anything. He is a great scorer and people know that, have known that, and will continue to know that. Being a good scorer for 4 years in college doesn't mean you will get the hype it takes to move up in the draft.
Please don't take anything I have said as an attack on your position or anything. I am just trying to help explain why, fair or not, he is not looked at as a great prospect.
But I do disagree with you some. Sure he could be another Arenas or AI, but what are the odds on that? You could just as easily say he is another DaJuan Wagner or Shawn Respert. What makes him so much better than Redick or Salim Stoudamire or Joe Forte? I think it is great you support him, and I think he has the potential to be a steal, but how high do you draft a potential steal? You think he is going to be good, I think he might possibly be good. That is the difference.
As for why, on the court, I don't love him as an NBA prospect, I just don't see a guy that has the knack to be a starting guard in the NBA. A shooter off the bench, yes. A starter that you can either trust to run the offense, or trust to guard SG, no. Arenas and AI are just special players and that is why they are so good. If he is like them, then he is one of the best smaller players ever. They are just on a different level in my opinion. It is like people saying Oden is the next Duncan, it is just unfair. Guys like Stoudamire have played PG and are better playmakers, and that is why I think they found spots in the NBA. A guy like Boykins is just like a freak. He bounced around for like 7 years before he found the perfect fit for him in Denver. I don't know how a guy like that hung around after playing for so many teams early in his career. On a side note, looking at his career stats, this just amazes me. He flopped around for his first couple seasons, I think he even went over to Europe, and then played 10 games for the Clips, shot 40% and 12% from 3 and they brought him back and he played 68 games the next year, still just shooting 40% and 31% from 3. Then GS finds him worthy of a contract and he kind of has a breakout season getting 8ppg, and then just blows up (kind of) in the following years with Denver.
I think the guy he will be most like in the NBA is David Wesley in his later Hornets and Rockets days when he played less PG. That was still a guy that averaged 10 to 16ppg, and around 3 or 4 assists, which is more than double what Lofton gets in college, but to be fair, he isn't asked to pass right now. I think that is at his best. An undersized PG, that might be a 10ppg scorer isn't worth a pick in the teens. I think maybe a team grabs in late in the 1st, but most likely in the 2nd just because of the height issue and lack of playmaking skills.