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Old 06-19-2009, 04:53 PM   #3
The Italian
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Default Re: hoolinger insider article request

Continued from pervious post:

Quote:
Rankings: 13 to 25




Collegians: No. 13 through 25
Player School Draft Rater
13. Jrue Holiday UCLA 12.73
14. Jeff Teague Wake Forest 12.50
15. Gerald Henderson Duke 12.17
16. Paul Delaney UAB 11.85
17. Aaron Jackson Duquesne 11.83
18. Darren Collison UCLA 11.80
19. Terrence Williams Louisville 11.80
20. Leo Lyons Missouri 11.53
21. Eric Maynor VCU 11.35
22. John Bryant Santa Clara 11.30
23. DeMarre Carroll Missouri 11.18
24. Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina 11.11
25. Wayne Ellington North Carolina 11.04


This part of the list is an interesting mishmash of potential sleepers and potential busts. In general, players in this range have some kind of NBA career but always can count on getting some quality time with the family during All-Star Weekend.

We're awash in point guards in this draft, and six of the top nine names in this section play the position. The lesson is this: If you're in the market for a point guard, one will fall to you, and they're more or less the same after the first couple.

Down at No. 13, Holiday is a bit of a surprise -- given that he's projected to go higher -- but he has the two characteristics that produce the greatest error rate in the Draft Rater: He's a point guard and has played only one year. In other words, his real value might be much higher or much lower, and because the consensus is much higher, it wouldn't bother me to use a top-eight pick on him.

Delaney and Jackson are second-round sleepers at the point, but because projections for point guards are a bit more volatile, perhaps they shouldn't really be this high. The other "who's he?" on the list, Bryant, is a 6-11, 275-pound center from Santa Clara who could have a fine 10-year career as a third center in the Greg Kite/Aaron Gray mold.


Rankings: Potential disappointments




Collegians: Other notables
Player School Draft Rater
26. Jordan Hill Arizona 10.97
28. B.J. Mullens Ohio State 10.81
30. James Johnson Wake Forest 10.63
31. Chase Budinger Arizona 10.51
45. Derrick Brown Xavier 9.55
48. DaJuan Summers Georgetown 9.38
51. Jodie Meeks Kentucky 9.35
52. Sam Young Pitt 9.34
54. DeMar DeRozan USC 9.26
62. Toney Douglas Florida State 8.56
68. Patrick Mills Saint Mary's 8.36
83. Jack McClinton Miami 6.64


And here's where we get to the players the Draft Rater is down on.

Several potential first-round picks don't pass muster here, with short, shoot-first combo guards in particular bearing the brunt of the Draft Rater's wrath -- Jack McClinton, Patrick Mills and Toney Douglas were the three lowest-rated "name" prospects, and Jodie Meeks didn't fare a whole lot better.

The other big surprise down here is Jordan Hill, who could go as high as No. 4 but rates 26th in the Draft Rater. Hill had solid rebounding and scoring numbers, but his percentages weren't off the charts, and his poor assist and turnover numbers were a red flag. Although one might think that ballhandling categories wouldn't matter for a power forward, apparently they do -- pure point rating (a measure of how a player passes and handles the ball) is a pretty strong success indicator for frontcourt players, and only four prospects rated worse than Hill.

One of those players was Mullens, who was the absolute worst at -2.85. Everyone concedes he's a project, so perhaps it's not such a big surprise to see him down this low. But the Draft Rater is saying that maybe even the middle of the first round is too high to take the risk on him.

Pitt's Sam Young also graded out extremely poorly. He had the worst pure point rating of any wing player, and the other thing that hurt him is that he's one of the oldest prospects in the pool. How old? He's 19 days older than six-year vet Darko Milicic and a full half-decade older than Holiday.

There you go.
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