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Old 06-15-2010, 11:22 PM   #1
PhilLEEs 2011
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: North Philly, PA
Posts: 12,784
Default Worst Hands in the League: Drop %

Targets Drops Drop %
Daniel Coats 31 7 22.6%
Darrius Heyward-Bey 41 7 17.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw 30 5 16.7%
Brandon Jacobs 31 5 16.1%
Lance Long 40 6 15%
Donald Lee 54 8 14.8%
Daniel Fells 34 5 14.7%
Mark Bradley 56 8 14.3%
Dwayne Bowe 88 11 12.5%
DeAngelo Williams 41 5 12.2%

If we switch to raw totals, the league lead goes to two tight ends: Brent Celek of the Eagles and Vernon Davis of the 49ers each had 12 drops. The tie would go to Celek, as he dropped his 12 passes in 113 targets; Davis required 129 targets for his 12 drops. The only other receiver in the league in double-digits was Bowe.

As for year-to-year consistency? Last year's leaders aren't really near the top of the table this time around. Celek had five drops in 38 targets last year (a 13.2 Drop Rate), but no one else from last year's top ten made it to the 2009 leaderboard. Marshawn Lynch came close; he led the league last year with a Drop Rate of 17.9 percent, but he was only at 10.8 percent this year. The leader amongst tight ends was Marcedes Lewis, who dropped 13.7 percent of his targets in 2008, but was at only 5.0 percent in 2009 (3-of-60). The leading wideout in 2008 didn't drop a single pass in 2009! Unfortunately for Harry Douglas, though, a torn ACL meant that he didn't catch a single ball in anger, either. Behind him was Braylon Edwards, who dropped a league-leading 15 passes on 138 targets, for a 10.9 percent Drop Rate. Perhaps buoyed by his move to New York, Edwards only dropped six of the 97 passes thrown to him this year, for a respectable Drop Rate of 6.2 percent.

Another stat that's interesting (to me, at least) is Unforced Errors -- those drops that came when a receiver was listed as Uncovered or up against the vaunted Hole In Zone. Last year, the league leader in Unforced Errors was the Cardinals' Tim Hightower; he dropped four passes while marked as Uncovered (likely screen passes), and one against HiZ, for a total of five. Four players had four Unforced Errors; the only wideout in the group was the Eagles' DeSean Jackson, whose drops all came against Hole In Zone.

As for the receivers with the best hands? Five players were not registered with a single drop, including Greg Camarillo (73 targets), Robert Meachem (66), Pierre Thomas (45), Brian Westbrook (34), and Delanie Walker (33). T.J. Houshmandzadeh only dropped two passes on 140 targets, which seems like a function of his usage pattern, but it's hard to reconcile that logic when Lee Evans only dropped one of the 95 targets thrown to him.

Finally, the two-year totals (minimum: 30 targets in each season). The "best hands" group would have made for a hell of an offense in their respective peaks, with Brian Westbrook (0.9 percent Drop Rate) at halfback, Sidney Rice (1.3 percent) and Lee Evans (1.5 percent) at wideout, and Tony Gonzalez (1.7 percent) catching whatever's left at tight end.

Eagles should use that DeSean stat in negotiations
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