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Old 01-10-2007, 07:02 PM   #4
Saw a basketball once
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 35

I was going to print it out and read it on the way home, but I just read it now. Many good points Big Daddy. But because you have three paragraphs devoted to David Lee starting, I have to ask ARE YOU MARC BERMAN OF THE NY POST?

Here's my feeling:

The odds on winning the whole thing in the NBA are 1 out of 30 (there are 30 teams). You have to take enough samplings for laws of probability to hold, but even if you took only 4 samplings, then your typical NBA team wins 4 championships every 120 years.

You're going to win your championships in bunches, when you assemble a great team. So you'll win maybe 2 championships in a 5 year period, then go 60 to 80 years without one, then win a couple more, etc.

That means the typical fan might go their whole lifetime without experiencing a championship.

My second theory is that to win a championship in the NBA, you need a 'greatest player of all time' on your team, a superstar by his side, and great coaching and complementary players. Look at who's won championships the last 25 years -- Jordan (with Pippen and Grant/Rodman) -- 6, Magic (with Worthy and Jabbar) -- 5, O'Neal (with Bryant and/or Wade) -- 4, Bird (with McHale and Parish) -- 3, Olajawon (with Cassel and Thorpe) -- 2, Duncan (with the Argentinian) -- 2. The other four are Philly with Moses Malone in his prime (with Erving and great overall team), and 3 by Detroit (all three times with a great overall team that didn't have a 'greatest player of all time' -- Isiah in my opinion was a superstar not a 'greatest of all time').

So for the Knicks, their next championship might be 40 or 50 years from now when they draft a 'greatest player of all time' and put a superstar by his side. This bunch may not be it.

They'll be fun to watch. The talent is young, etc.

So enjoy the ride and don't expect to win 'the whole thing'.

As for the Yanks, there's nothing wrong with them. In baseball you can spend money to narrow the odds down from 1-30 down to 1-8. You make the playoff, then its luck and health and everything else. 1-8 odds mean you'll not win the championship 7 out of every 8 years you make the playoffs. Very consistent with what the Yanks have been doing.

Greatest Players of All Time:
Michael Jordan
Shaq O'Neal
Magic Johnson
Larry Bird
Tim Duncan
Akem Olajuwon
Wilt Chamberlain (when compared to his comp)
Bill Russell (when compared to his comp)
Dwight Howard (carried the Magic to three championships in 2010-2012
Otis Huffenpuff (drafted by the Knicks in 2047, carried them to three championships. LouV was dead by then.)
LouV is offline   Reply With Quote