[apriorist]

I did some research on 1st-round upsets in the NCAA Tournament since 2001, here's what I found:

Every year had at least one:

9 over 8 upset
10 over 7 upset
12 over 5 upset

Out of 24 first-round games per matchup (i.e., 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, etc) in the 6 years since 2001:

There were 11 (out of 24) 9 over 8 upsets (46%)
8 (out of 24) 10 over 7 upsets (33%)
8 (out of 24) 11 over 6 upsets (33%)
11 (out of 24) 12 over 5 upsets (46%)
6 (out of 24) 13 over 4 upsets (25%)
2 (out of 24) 14 over 3 upsets (8%)
1 (out of 24) 15 over 2 upset (4%)

With this in mind, I think it's best to pick:

2 9 over 8 upsets
1 10 over 7 upset
1 11 over 6 upset
2 12 over 5 upsets
1 13 over 4 upset

Anyone have anything to add?