Thread: Off-season
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Old 05-10-2012, 04:09 PM   #23
Xiao Yao You
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Default Re: Off-season

Despite all the talk of NY never letting Lin go it sounds like he is a possible get. The way he ran the pick and roll during Linsanity he'd have to be a guy the Jazz would seriously look at especially if they can't draft a pg.

Lin will be what’s called an Arenas-rights player. He has been in the NBA less than four years, meaning the Knicks team can make him a restricted free agent by issuing a Qualifying Offer. In Lin’s case because he is not on a typical first round pick rookie deal, his Offer amount is calculated using 125% of his previous salary, or the player’s minimum salary plus $200,000, whichever is greater. In Lin’s case his minimum salary as a third year player is $854,389 plus $200,000 making his Qualifier $1.054 million.

Now enter the wrinkle. Lin does not possess Bird Rights, but the Knicks can match anything up to the Mid-Level to keep him if they restrict him. Opposing teams are limited to the Mid-Level in their initial offer, but can increase the third and fourth year of a deal so that all years average to the amount of cap space they have available. — that’s the Arenas provision.

So the wrinkle gets a little sillier, especially if a team with cap space makes a big cap space type offer. According to Larry Coon’s CBAFAQ, Lin’s maximum offer can be constructed like this:

If a team that is $9 million under the cap… [and] wants to submit a four-year offer sheet, and wants to provide a large raise in the third season, they can offer a total of $36 million over four years. The first-year salary is limited to the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, or $5 million. The second-year salary will be $5.225 million (4.5% raise). This leaves $25.775 million to be distributed over the final two seasons of the contract, with a 4.1% raise from year three to year four. So the entire contract looks like this:

Season – Salary – Notes

1 – $5,000,000 – Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level amount for 2011-12

2 – $5,225,000 – 4.5% raise over season 1

3 – $12,628,613 – This is the amount that yields $25.775 million over the final two seasons with a 4.1% raise

4 – $13,146,387 – Raise is 4.1% of season 3 salary

Total – $36,000,000 – Average is $9 million, which equals the team’s cap room

For the team making this offer, this contract would count for $9.0 million (i.e., the average salary in the contract) of team salary in each of the four seasons if they sign the player. If the player’s prior team matches the offer and keeps the player, then the actual salary in each season counts as team salary. The player’s original team is allowed to use any available exception (e.g., the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level or the Early Bird) to match the offer.

Sources close to the situation say there could be as many as six teams willing to make an offer to Jeremy Lin, some are willing to test New York’s resolve on Lin with a deal constructed like Larry’s outline above. It’s doubtful anyone is going to make an offer that averages $9 million, but would someone do a deal that averages $6 to $7 million? – that’s probable.

In order to match such an offer, not only would the Knicks have to commit their full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception to Lin, they’d also take on contract values in years 3 and 4 that would likely be taxed by the NBA more punitive Luxury Tax that kicks in in 2013.

The Knicks owe Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler $60.632 million alone in 2014-2015, when year three of Jeremy’s new contract would kick in.
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