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Old 08-30-2012, 03:48 AM   #723
Playmakers Dad
Local High School Star
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 1,515
Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

I'd like to point out a few things, not to make anyone feel bad, but to hopefully help inexperienced owners and to shed some light as to why trading (especially in the preseason) can be both dangerous and crippling to ones team.

BB4L and Jazzfan agreed to a deal that sent Hakeem Nicksto BB4L and Stevie Johnson, Mark Ingram, and Danny Amendola to Jazzfan by way of BB4L. At first glance this deal seems fairly even on paper, however when you look a little closer it becomes glaringly evident that this deal was, in fact, COMPLETELY lopsided in BB4L's favor.

First I'd like to point out why Stevie Johnsons statistics are deceiving. In 16 games last year he had 1000 yards and 7 Touchdowns which makes the 21st overall WR in standard scoring leagues, thus making him a low end WR2 by definition. He ranked 9th in overall targets (passes thrown to) with a whopping 133. To give you some perspective only 4 WR's had over 150 targets in all of 2011 (Calvin, Welker, Roddy, and Fitz). Stevie's efficiency based on the volume of targets is well below average compared to almost any WR in the top 50.

What do all of these metrics tell us? Well, Stevie Johnson isn't efficient and a lot of his production can be attributed to opportunity/situation and volume vs sheer talent. In order for Stevie to finish as a low end WR2 he needed a perfect storm of things to go his way. In comparison Jordy Nelson (who finished as the #2 overall WR) saw nearly 40 less targets than Stevie, yet finished with well 75 more fantasy points than Stevie.

A few things we can take away from all of this are,

Stevie Johnson has likely has had his BEST statistical season last year (or the year before where he also was top 10 in targets). Going forward it's unlikely he remains a top 10 targeted WR, especially when you factor in how ineffective he is when compared to other elite top targeted WRs. Stevie Johnsons ceiling can be projected at 1000 yards, 7 TDs, and 75 catches (low end WR2), where as a more realistic projection is about 110 targets which would extrapolate to 900 yards 5.5 TDs 65 catches over the course of a 16 game season (low end WR3 or WR4 numbers).

I participated in a draft tonight where Hakeem Nicks went in the 2nd round. This was a very clued in draft of savvy owner and speaks volumes on how Nicks is perceived. The fact that Jazzfan was able to draft Hakeem Nicks in the 4th round, which mind you is an unbelievable value (probably one of the best overall values in the draft) made this rape that much more brutal. Jazzfan's best VALUE pick by far was Nicks and considering he paid a 4th round price for a potential high end WR1 is just outstanding (had he kept him). What's beyond atrocious is then gift wrapping him for Stevie Johnson as well as Mark Ingram and Danny Amendola (who we'll get into later).

The main reason I felt compelled to go on this tangent was because I took a peak at the week 1 match ups and low and behold Jazzfan is projected to lose to Primetime by 40 points, count them 40 points. While obviously yahoo projections are hardly great indicators of wins and losses when there is a point differential that large you can bet your bottom dollar that the favorite will win at a very high percentage.

Not only is Jazzfan projected to get blown out but he's not even starting Danny Amendola and Mark Ingram (rightfully so I might add, because they ARE NOT startable), the other two pieces involved in the trade. Does this seem strange to anyone else? So essentially in the preseason, JAZZFAN downgrades a WR1 for a WR3 (a mostly ineffective one at that) in order to get a deeper bench. This trade is awfully, fuzzy.

Again this isn't meant to attack JazzFan he might as well be Joe Cool but trades that go through that can potentially offset the entire competitive balance need to be examined closely.

We owe it to ourselves not to allow trades like this to pass in the future and hopefully I was able to shed some light on WHY this trade should have never have gone through in the first place.

End rant.

Last edited by Playmakers Dad : 08-30-2012 at 06:54 AM.
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