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Old 01-12-2013, 01:43 PM   #6
rank sentamentalist
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: goodbyecruelworld
Posts: 16,877
Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

No decision on how many troops to remain. Zero to 10,000 were the estimates.
lol @ zero

the us will want a permanent military establishment in afghanistan the same as it wanted -- and got -- in iraq. they aren't going to up and leave for good and turn a dozen years of regime change and subsequent 'counterinsurgency' into a giant waste of time and resources. they went in for a reason and they stayed for a reason, and while its hard to completely remove obl from either, he and his cronies are nowhere near as substantial a factor as us rhetoric would have you believe

american military influence is in afghanistan to stay. we'll understand something of the exact nature of that influence once the details of the bilateral security arrangement are worked out. but the us are there to stay. if they don't, they might well lose the afghans to chinese influence, in the same vein they've steadily lost pakistan. china's always been supportive of pakistan, perhaps mostly because of their shared indian threat (pakistan militarily, china economically).. it was mostly the chinese that gave pakistan support for their nuclear program. the chinese are overwhelmingly more popular in the region than the americans. popular opinion isn't even close.

if the us were to completely withdraw, they'd forfeit one of the most strategically placed countries in the world (not least of which because it buffers iran) which would almost inevitably wind up at least partly under taliban control, in a multilateral security arrangement with russia, china, and almost all the other -stans, and just potentially

no the us isn't going anywhere. it doesn't matter what the white house might announce or how they'll eventually play the wording of their endgame in afghanistan. it would be complete folly to their real interests to abandon the country completely. as for leaving the country in the hands of "afghan forces" under us "training and advice", well, those are just obvious pseudonyms. it's not called advice if you're compelled to follow it.
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