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-   -   How come media members don't understand odds? (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=250488)

niko 02-03-2012 10:23 AM

How come media members don't understand odds?
 
I've heard about 1,000 time this week that the odds (Patriots 3 pt favorites opening, 2 1/2 now) means Vegas is picking the Pats to win. Odds (point spreads) are not meant to pick the game. Vegas is not trying to get everyone to bet one way, and then win the other side. That would be them gambling. Vegas is trying to get half of the best on each side (Giants/Pats) and then at worst, with the % they charge on the bets, win, and at best, maybe one way or another falls out and they get some extra money.

The big name teams historically (Pats, Steelers, Packers, Cowboys) get more bets. In a game like the Super Bowl, where there are a lot of casual betters there is a lot of action on the Pats. Thus, to get a betters split, Pats are favorites. If they were underdogs they'd get too much of the bets.

I heard a million times "everyone is picking the Giants, therefore Vegas is happy because when the Pats win, they'll make a killing". No, everyone is not betting on the Giants because then the line would move. It's only moved a half point. A majority of sportswriters are picking them, but that is not the betting public.

The Pats very well may kick our ass but based on the past few weeks, if this was a regular season game, we'd probably have a pick em type game. But since it's the Super Bowl, the casual money required a line that stimulated betting against the Pats.

If you are Joe Schmo i watch one game a year, who are you betting on? 13 Win Pats, who just beat Ravens, with Tom Brady. Or 9 win Giants, who struggled against the 49ers (who i know are good, and you know are good, but the general public underrates) and their QB, Eli Manning?

I don't think any media members understand the spreads. How can that be? And worse, they explain it like they do.

HAzE024 02-03-2012 11:55 AM

Re: How come media members don't understand odds?
 
while youre right in theory - in this case, it does not apply. the Giants are just as high a profile team as the Patriots and are backed by the largest media market in America. To me, its just a bad line, Vegas bought into this mysticism the media created for the Brady/Belichek combo that hasnt won a super bowl in almost a decade (now with a much worse defense), but the public doesnt seem to be fooled + the Pats have become the team to hate lately.

i think it should be a pick 'em game, but if you at the teams on paper, my Giants should be favored.

niko 02-03-2012 12:11 PM

Re: How come media members don't understand odds?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by HAzE024
while youre right in theory - in this case, it does not apply. the Giants are just as high a profile team as the Patriots and are backed by the largest media market in America. To me, its just a bad line, Vegas bought into this mysticism the media created for the Brady/Belichek combo that hasnt won a super bowl in almost a decade (now with a much worse defense), but the public doesnt seem to be fooled + the Pats have become the team to hate lately.

i think it should be a pick 'em game, but if you at the teams on paper, my Giants should be favored.

No, New England (since the mini dynasty), Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh all get points in their lines just based on who they are. Check their lines, they are higher than normal.

-p.tiddy- 02-03-2012 12:49 PM

Re: How come media members don't understand odds?
 
the line is created by the gamblers...they adjust the spread to try and get a perfect 50/50% of the money on each team, then they charge the winners 5% "juice"

so that way they take home 5% of all the money bet no matter who wins the game.




the spread is just a reflection of what the gamblers are doing....looks like the money started to lean toward the Gaints, so they changed the spread to 2.5 to get more people to bet Pats and even it out.

niko 02-03-2012 02:02 PM

Re: How come media members don't understand odds?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
the line is created by the gamblers...they adjust the spread to try and get a perfect 50/50% of the money on each team, then they charge the winners 5% "juice"

so that way they take home 5% of all the money bet no matter who wins the game.




the spread is just a reflection of what the gamblers are doing....looks like the money started to lean toward the Gaints, so they changed the spread to 2.5 to get more people to bet Pats and even it out.

its back to 3 actually.

BrooklynZoo 02-04-2012 12:33 AM

Re: How come media members don't understand odds?
 
no, its true that a lot of the bets are on the giants. i heard 65%

niko 02-04-2012 09:27 AM

Re: How come media members don't understand odds?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BrooklynZoo
no, its true that a lot of the bets are on the giants. i heard 65%

The line would have moved then. It did not.

BrooklynZoo 02-04-2012 12:31 PM

Re: How come media members don't understand odds?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by niko
The line would have moved then. It did not.


the line was originally 3.5 and is now 2.5. it has moved so the action has been on the giants. it may have leveled a little now but it was around 65%


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