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-   -   Why are tall players so overrated in drafts ? (http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4447)

BigTicket 07-07-2006 06:21 PM

Why are tall players so overrated in drafts ?
 
Was looking at a list of the #1 draft picks in recent years and couldn't help but notice something, in the last 24 years only 1 guard has been drafted #1 overall(AI), all others were either Centers or forwards, and few small forwards at that.
And the story repeated itself this year with the top 5 picks being forwards or centers, and huge reaches like Sene at #10, so a bench player from the belgian league gets picked ahead of the college player of the year just because he's tall ?

Ofcourse I know the answer I'm going to get: "Potential". What I don't know is why ppl seem to think being taller automatically means you have more potential, over those same 24 year 11 of the MVP's have been guards.

Guards are also much more polished generally, meaning you're a lot less likely to draft a bust if you pick a guard, making it seemingly a safer and just as valuable choice, so why do GM's disagree with facts ?

Skywalker 07-07-2006 06:23 PM

Because they need bigs lol. Simple as that, THEY NEED BIGS!

geeWiz15 07-07-2006 06:25 PM

Because size matters.

Trust me, as a guy who has experienced being both the biggest, smallest, and everything in between player in rec league games, size is everything. AI has a whale of a time doing what he does, and he needs to shoot a low % and work harder than anyone else in the game to get his points. Meanwhile Duncan just shoots the hook right over everyone that comes at him. Bigger players shoot the higher %, have by far the greatest defensive impact becase they're able to inhabit the area where the greatest percent of shots are taken, with the greatest percent chance of going in unguarded. Meanwhile on D guards only get a little section of the perimiter, can't dominate via help defense, and need to work twice as hard to get good shots.

TMacsOneGoodEye 07-07-2006 06:27 PM

"You can't teach size."

geeWiz15 07-07-2006 06:28 PM

3 years ago, I was 5'2. All I could do was spot up for threes and occasionally slash and throw up a floater when I played in the 18-under, or even 16-under leagues cause I was so damn short. Then I grew, I'm currently just over 6' with really long-ass arms. Now I'm able to play the post, and I basically just hover around the basket, get the ball, and look for a hook or a turnaround. you get way more garbage points as a big guy too. I got 28 points last game on 20 shots and about half of them were putbacks. Only hit 3 shots outside 10 feet. Being a big guy is easy and efficient, and that is where teams want their talent, not the perimiter.

Plus, size is more rare. How many Juan Dixons are there in the league, now how many big guys with decent post skills and defense?

BigTicket 07-07-2006 06:34 PM

True, you can't teach size, but if a player hasnt learned to play worth a damn by the time he's 20 or so and being drafted what makes you think he will learn while sitting on a bench and travelling to a new city every other day ? Why take such a high risk chance when the rewards if it pans out aren't even better than those of a guard who succeeds as player like Jordan, Magic and Oscar prove.

Simply assuming that you can teach any guy to play in the NBA so you better pick the tall ones is silly, get the guy with actual skills instead and you'll be better off.

TMacsOneGoodEye 07-07-2006 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigTicket
True, you can't teach size, but if a player hasnt learned to play worth a damn by the time he's 20 or so and being drafted what makes you think he will learn while sitting on a bench and travelling to a new city every other day ? Why take such a high risk chance when the rewards if it pans out aren't even better than those of a guard who succeeds as player like Jordan, Magic and Oscar prove.

Simply assuming that you can teach any guy to play in the NBA so you better pick the tall ones is silly, get the guy with actual skills instead and you'll be better off.


Theirs probably more swingmen busts than there are big men busts, especially now that we are in the post-MJ era where every team drafted a swingman and are hoping that they pan out.

jamal 07-07-2006 06:39 PM

Because the winner of every game is the team that scores more points, and tall guys shoot a higher percentage, therefore when a tall dude shoots, his team theoretically has a better chance of scoring than if a diminutive cat shoots.

BigTicket 07-07-2006 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TMacsOneGoodEye
Theirs probably more swingmen busts than there are big men busts, especially now that we are in the post-MJ era where every team drafted a swingman and are hoping that they pan out.


Nope, the success ratio for drafting swingmen is a hell of a lot higher than for big men, because at least with them you know they have skills before you draft.

bagelred 07-07-2006 06:49 PM

This is a ridiculous thread. Why? Because their tall!!!

When your in a pickup game at the park, who's the first guy chosen. The TALL GUYS!! Even if they blow. Basketball is predicated on height...

Unnecessary thread...

dejordan 07-07-2006 06:52 PM

with the new rules making tony parker the leading scorer in the paint and d-wade the finals mvp, this might change. you can't teach height, but in a league without handchecking, speed kills, and you can't teach that either.

junwin 07-07-2006 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TMacsOneGoodEye
"You can't teach size."

'nuff said

hateraid 07-07-2006 07:25 PM

...
 
Height and skill is a rare combo, got to get it while it's there.

kentatm 07-07-2006 07:27 PM

they are overrated for the same reason athletic guys are overrated.

TheBigAristotle1 07-07-2006 07:32 PM

Quote:

Theirs probably more swingmen busts than there are big men busts, especially now that we are in the post-MJ era where every team drafted a swingman and are hoping that they pan out.

Statistically swingmen are the safest picks, and bigmen are the most risky.....


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