Looking at John Wallís ranks amongst this group from a situational standpoint may not yield the results one would expect from a player slated to go first overall and make an immediate impact, but it does reaffirm what we know about his weaknesses. In some ways, Wallís lack of great efficiency reminds us of Tyreke Evansí (they have the same 0.88 overall points per-possession average).
Our data shows that Wallís catch and shoot jump shot is as inconsistent it appears, as he shoots a meager 31% on such attempts. He does fare a bit better off the dribble, hitting pull-ups at a rate just below 40%. Wallís lack of perimeter consistency limited his efficiency in spot up situations last season, and the overtures of analysts about the form on his jump shot allowing him to develop into a reliable shooter will make Wallís shooting a key component of his maturation as a player to keep an eye on.
Wallís numbers donít look bad in half court situations, but they arenít great either. He turned the ball over on 21.8% of his half court possessions last season, the second highest rate amongst our sample. Additionally, his points per-possession in spot up, isolation, and pick and roll situations all ranked a bit below average. Looking back at his season at Kentucky, all the little things that Wall did to help his team win donít show up here. On the NBA level, heíll benefit greatly from the hand-check rules.
Looking at Wallís situational strengths, it is clear that John Calipariís up-tempo offense was built for an athlete of Wallís caliber. 32.3% of his 18.3 offensive possessions per-game came on the fast break, the highest percentage amongst all point guards. Wall finished those transition opportunities at an above average 58.2% clip and was fouled on 14.2% of those shots. His 3.02 finishing opportunities per-game and 50.9% shooting at the rim are also fairly solid. Though Calipari allowed Wall to showcase his gifts in the open floor, his system afforded him only 1.7 pick and roll possessions each game, substantially less touches in the two-man game than weíll likely see from Wall next season.
Despite his diminutive stature, Randle was one of the more impressive players in our analysis because of his jump shooting ability. His 54.3% adjusted FG% indicates that his prowess from the perimeter boosts his respectable 44.6% shooting from the field towards the top of the pack when pitted against his peers. Though he turned the ball over on 19.1% of his overall possessions, ranking him sixth amongst the players in our sample, his .974 points per-possession is good for fifth place and is a full tenth of a point higher than our third ranked point guard, Eric Bledsoe.
The driving force behind Randleís success last season was his impeccable jump shooting ability. He took over 7 jumpers a game last season, and while he only connected on 38.4% of them, the majority of those shots were three pointers, making his 1.039 points per-jumper good for fourth best on this list. Though he doesnít display a great pull up jumper, Randle is extremely competent shooting off the catch.
His ability to knock down shots in spot up situations is extremely impressive. Nearly two-thirds of his 3.3 catch and shoot jumpers per-game were defended, but he posted an adjusted field goal percentage of 64% and created 1.29 points-per shot in such situations. Clearly, Randle has learned to deal with the fact that heís often shooting over much taller defenders, something that will help him considerably with his transition to the NBA game.
In addition to his surprising ability to make shots with the defense bearing down on him, Randle proves to be an average finisher, which, considering his size, is a pretty impressive accomplishment. He shot 51.3% on shots around the rim, which places him right in the middle of the pack and made him more efficient than bigger guards, such as Armon Johnson and Mikhail Torrance.
The fact that Eric Bledsoe didnít play much point guard last season doesnít flatter him in this analysis, and his lack of touches as a lead guard show in many of his situational efficiency measures.
Playing off the ball next to John Wall, Bledsoe posted solid numbers in some areas, but struggled mightily in others. His adjusted field goal percentage of 54% is third best in this group and is second to only Scottie Reynolds amongst college players. However, 22.1% of all of his possessions resulted in turnovers, the highest rate of any prospect at his position.
The most apparent example of Bledsoeís role for Kentucky last season lies in his spot up percentages. Some 35.3% of his possessions were spot ups, the highest percentage in this group by more than 10%. In the same vein, his 4.9% pick and roll rate is by far the lowest. Whatever team drafts Bledsoe will surely need to play him alongside an additional ball-handler, as he clearly isnít ready to handle full-time playmaking responsibilities himself, at least initially.
Despite not projecting as a shooting guard on the next level, Bledsoe would have some nice tools to play the two. He ranks as the third most efficient shooter in this group in terms of points per-shot from jumpers at 1.08 per-attempt. Despite hitting just 35.3% of his jump shots off the dribble, Bledsoe shot a ridiculous 66.7% adjust field goal percentage in unguarded catch and shoot situations.
A 6í5 point guard, weíve written a great deal about Torrance since his performance at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. He stacks up fairly well here Ėhis overall points per-possessions of .981 is good for fourth in this group, and is third amongst college players. He doesnít turn the ball over at a high rate either, coughing the ball up less than average on 16.2% of his possessions. However, his 15.3 possessions per-game render him as one of the lowest usage players on our list.
Torrance stands out the most in transition, where his size clearly helps him as a finisher. He scored 1.354 points per-possession in transition, ranking as the best fast break scorer in the group. Though only average in half court situations, Torrance is the third most effective isolation player in the group shooting 47.5% and has a lot of experience on the pick and roll, with 30.8% of his possessions coming such situations (3rd most).
Despite his size, Torrance isnít a great finisher (46.6% FG), nor is he going to make teams pay with his catch and shoot ability when left open (38.9%), but his form could allow him to improve as a shooter and if he develops his finishing ability with his right hand, he could become a very unique player at the next level given his size.
With an overall PPP of .837, Johnson ranks below average, though his 63% shooting in transition is good for third in this group. Unfortunately for Johnson, Nevada didnít push the ball too frequently last season, as nearly 83% of his possessions came in half court situations.
When the game slowed down, Johnson took advantage of spot up situations, shooting a second ranked 48.7%, but did most of his damage one-on-one. Johnsonís 6.11 isolations possessions per-game is second to only Devan Downey, though his 0.716 PPP represents his sometimes over-assertive nature. The same is clear in his shot selection. Though he got to the rim 4.26 times each game, he shot 4.5 pull-ups as well (2nd). Considering he only made his 38.8 percent of his shots off the dribble, it is clear that Johnson is on the ball-dominant side, and will need to be a more efficient player in a smaller role on the next level.
Re: Situational Statistics: Point Guards (great read)
Although he has virtually been written off as an NBA draft prospect at this stage, Scottie Reynolds deserves a lot of credit for what he did this season as a senior. The top player in our rankings in overall PPP (1.05), Reynolds ranks above average in every situational PPP measure. Heís even one of the top six one-on-one players in the group, despite not possessing great athleticism. The third best jump shooter in this group, Reynoldsí lack of size, explosiveness, and questions about his point guard skills hurt his NBA draft stock, but his offensive resume is impressive to say the least.
Greivis Vasquez is one of the more unique players in this sample because of his skill set and role at Maryland last season. The Venezuela native got a lot of his possessions working off the ball, with 14.2% of his touches coming from off screen action. His aggressive scoring mentality is clear in the fact that more than half of his catch and shoot jumpers came with a hand in his face; a shot that Vasquez makes as efficiently as any player on this list. At 21.4 possessions per-game, he is also the third highest usage player in these rankings.
Jeremy Wise looks impressive compared to the college players on our list, despite facing a higher level of competition in the NBADL. Scoring on 49.4% of his shots from the field in spot up situations, making 54.3% of his isolation attempts, and running the pick and roll as efficiently as any player on the list (1.12), Wise combines the top mark in terms of finishing ability (1.364 PPP) with well above average catch and shoot ability. Across the board, Wise looks like a solid prospect on paper, but he put up those numbers on the third worst team in the NBADL. A bit undersized for a scoring guard and not quite a point guard, Wise has some NBA tools, and should he go undrafted, heíll be player to keep an eye on in the Summer Leagues considering his experience.
Devan Downey is the highest usage player in our rankings, with 10.6 of his 23.5 possessions per-game coming off of jumpers, showing how his size impacted his shot selection in a big role.
Courtney Fortsonís 5.39 finishing attempts per-game rank first in this group, but his 0.87 PPP ranks last.
Tommy Mason-Griffin is the most effective spot-up player in terms of PPP (1.254) and the fourth most effective in isolation situations (1.02) mostly because he ranks as the second best jump shooter. His size limits him at the rim though, where he shoots the worst percentage in our rankings (40.9%)
Sherron Collins is the second worst pull up shooter in our group (.62 PPP), but is the second best spot up shooter when left open (1.38 PPP). That could help him considerably in a smaller role on the next level.