I say they have a 40% chance to win a title. If the Cavs and Lakers meet in the Finals I don't feel we're going to beat them. They're just too dominate inside for us to handle them. Especially if Ben Wallace is still hobbled like he is right now. If we meet someone else in the Finals I give us a better chance to win of course.
Whatever though, I just want some good basketball.
Good luck getting past the Celtics when they have KG back.
I'm not worried about Boston at all anymore, especially with home court advantage. Orlando scares me more, truthfully. With everyone playing how they are, I don't see how we can't get to the finals. I could see it being a do or die game 7 at the Q. I can't even imagine being there... It gives me chills just thinking about it.
All season long, teams with dominant big men have given us fits. I don't like a potential Orlando matchup, and in fact, I fear them more than the Celtics. Dwight Howard can have a field day against us. The question is, do you let him do his damage, and try to control the others (which means making quick rotations defensivly and really being ON those guys) or do you double him and let the other guys go to work? In any case, Orlando scares me.
Boston scares me in that they have been there before as a group. I don't know how ready KG will be, and I think at some point, they will miss a James Posey, but I still think that they are a dangerous team.
Should we survive those two teams (and I think that each series will go 7 games if we do indeed play them both), we are more than likely going to face a well rested Lakers team. I can't see any team out west beating them, or really even giving them problems. People keep bringing up the fact that they beat us in both showdowns this year, but in recent years, we have played pretty well against L.A. Granted, that was before they got Pau Gasol, but I'm not sold on that guy being able to be a large factor in the moment.
Without homecourt advantage, I don't think that there is a very good chance that we would win it all this year. The fact that we DO have it cannot be stated enough. We have our weaknesses, and goodness, do we ever need a back to the basket player, but we have a great arena of rabid fans, the best player in the game (in my opinion), with a strong supporting cast around him.
How could Mike Brown match wits against Phil Jackson? I'm sure many people would be concerned about that, but a far lesser coach in Doc Rivers did that just fine last year.
Then, there is the luck factor. How will the refs call the games, and will our guys stay healthy? Those are factors that can always rear their ugly heads at any time.
I believe the Cavs have a great chance at the finals. A KG-less Celtic team is far less intimidating. They still have a decent squad, but I dont see a frontline consisting of Perkins and Glen Davis beating out the Cavs or Magic.
Magic is the obvious biggest competition. This Magic team is very difficult to defend. They live by their 3 ball and they are damn good at it. Collapsing down on Dwight will only open up their 3 point shooters. I think the Magic are at their best when they are hitting 3's so I would single cover Dwight for a while and see if he can create for himself. Ben would be of great use against Dwight if healthy.
Now, assuming the Lakers are in the finals, and even though they have home court, I still believe the Lakers are the team to beat. And I think the Lakers length could pose problems for the front line. Andy has played well, much better than I have expected. Again, with Ben, the Cavs are stronger defensively. But I think the Lakers flat out are just more talented than the Cavs. And with Bynum's return and decent level of play in the final games of the season, I dont think they can beat them. Obviously anything is possible, and a lot of it will have to do with momentum coming into the playoffs. I give you a 35% shot of defeating this Lakers team. Would be lower without homecourt.
All I know is a Cavs v Lakers finals would be epic. 2 of the best players going at it. Wish the best of luck to you guys and hopefully see you in the finals.