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Old 04-28-2011, 06:40 PM   #1
KG215
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Default 2011 NFL Draft Thread

See if we can get some actual draft discussion going.



4/28 (Tonight): Round 1
4/29: Round 2 and Round 3
4/30: Round 4, 5, 6, 7



I've got some thoughts, mostly quarterback related. I've followed the NFL draft pretty closely for the last 5 or 6 years. I've never been this puzzled by a quarterback class as far as where some players are going to go.


Just some of my thoughts....


Cam Newton/Carolina Panthers: I have been trying to understand how Cam Newton going #1 overall to the Panthers makes sense. Newton was a one year wonder at Auburn in an offense where he basically had 1 or 2 WR's running predetermined routes, and if they weren't open he tucked the ball and ran. He never lined up under center, never checked down or made adjustments at the LOS, and barely read defense. He has a very small sample size as far as college work to go off of. He threw a whopping 280 passes in college. Carolina just took Clausen in the 2nd round last year and now they're going to take another QB #1 overall, even though there are several immediate impact type defensive players they could take instead, and Newton is a big project. The Panthers don't have a veteran for Newton to come sit behind and learn from for a few years and they don't have a great defense or wide-receivers to cover up his flaws as he learns on the go.

There are players like Marcell Dareus, Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, and Nick Fairley that would be much safer picks in my opinion. Newton may prove me wrong in a few years but he's just too big of a project and risk to waste the #1 overall pick on when you just took a QB in the 2nd round a year ago.



Blaine Gabbert: Quick, name the four Big 12 quarterbacks that threw for 20+ TD in the 2010 season.....Nope, Blaine Gabbert wasn't one of them. The correct answer: Landry Jones, Taylor Potts, Brandon Weeden, Robert Griffin.

How many D1 quarterbacks threw for more touchdowns than Blaine Gabbert in 2010? 58

That means almost half of the starting quarterbacks in college football threw for more touchdowns than Gabbert did a year ago. So, Missouri must have lined up in the 'I' or 'Power-I' or some other run ehavy formation and ran the ball 70% of the time, right? Wrong. They lined up in the shotgun with 5-Wide more times than not. Yet Gabbert, the #1 or #2 QB on most people's boards, and a consensus top 10 pick, managed a whopping 16 TD and 9 INT last year.

Really? Those numbers in a pass-happy offense scream top 5-10 pick to some NFL GMs? REALLY?!?! How about the fact Ryan Mallett gets knocked for his "late game decision making" based off of one interception late in the game against Alabama and one interception in the Sugar Bowl late in the game against Ohio State, yet Gabbert throws a pick-six this year in the Insight Bowl against Iowa. That pick-six just so happened to be late in the game and was essentially an walk-off pick-six. For some reason, though, that gets swept under the rug.



Jake Locker: For reasons beyond me, there are a lot of "experts" and talking heads that have Locker going in the first round. I posted this on another thread, but these were Locker's numbers in 3.5 years as a starter at Washington.

619/1148
53.9%
7,639 yards
53 TD
35 INT
6.6 yards per pass attempt
16-26 record as a starter (3.5 seasons)

That barely screams 4th or 5th round pick to me but he very well may be a 1st round pick.



Andy Dalton: Word is he might be the 3rd or 4th QB taken in the draft and a potential 1st rounder. Now, I'm not even sold on him, and don't think he's worth a 1st round pick, but at least his numbers and record in college look good on paper, until you remember he put up those numbers in the Mountain West Conference. Oh, and his ability to throw the ball down the field is questionable at best. But at least he's accurate, put up big numbers, and won a lot of games in college. Not something you can say about every other potential 1st round QB.



Ryan Mallett: At this point I could write a book on all the mostly false crap that's killed his draft stock over the last three months.

Weaknesses/Knocks/"Off-Field Issue"
Some of these I'll completely debunk...

1. He's not great under pressure and eluding the pass rush.
If you have time, watch this video...

http://seahawksdraftblog.com/ryan-ma...under-pressure

Is he perfect under pressure? No, but he's much better than people assume and/or think he is. This video shows some questionable and flat-out stupid passes while being rushed but also proves he's not a complete dumbass who makes nothing but bad decisions when the pocket collapses.


2. Mallett has a bad work-ethic and is lazy.
Completely 110% FALSE!! Bobby Petrino and his teammates at Arkansas have raved about his work-ethic and also stated he loved the film room. One proven and well-known thing about Petrino as a coach is that he is VERY demanding of his quarterbacks. In two years as a starter at Arkansas Mallett put up numbers that about every other starter in the nation over the same two year span would love to have. Bottom line is, you can't have a lazy work-ethic and put up the kind of numbers in Petrino's offense, especially against SEC defenses.


3. Mallett has/had a drug problem in college.
Mallett transferred to Arkansas prior to the 2008 season. In the three seasons he was at Arkansas Mallett never failed a drug test. So, how does someone with an alleged drug problem go three years without failing a drug test? His one proven off-field incident was an arrest for a public intox during his sit out year at Arkansas. Now, that's not good but it's far from being a drug user/abuser. Mallett admitted himself that he experimented with marijuana his freshman year at Michigan. Shocking...a collegiate athlete smoked some weed four years ago.


4. Mallett is a bad leader and a bad teammate.
Fact: Ryan Mallet was elected team captain - by his teammates - before ever taking a snap for Arkansas, and he was a two year captain.

Mallett's teammates have stated Mallett was a great leader and teammate during his time at Arkansas. Now, he allegedly had some issues while at Michigan and his cockiness rubbed some of the upperclassmen the wrong way. However, there was never any stories about Mallett being a bad teammate, locker room cancer, etc. while at Arkansas. Trust me, I live in Arkansas, and we would have heard if Mallett was causing problems while he was a Razorback. Every little bit of drama that takes place at the University of Arkansas gets reported, made known to the public, and spreads like wildfire. There are no professional sports teams or other major D1 programs in the state. The Razorbacks are our pro sports team and, especially the football and basketball programs - are in a fishbowl. We would have heard if Mallett was causing problems with the team.


Strengths and Positives

1. He has a cannon for an arm.
Mallett is the only quarterback in this class that has proven he can make any and every throw on the football field. Mallett is also the only quarterback in this class that has proven he can consistently complete throws down field - 25+ yards.


2. Mallett played in a complex pro-style offense in college.
Despite what some people think, Mallett wasn't lining up in the shotgun and throwing the ball 70% of the time while at Arkansas. In fact, Mallett lined up under center much more than he did in the shotgun. Also, Mallett was constantly making reads and checking down at the LOS. Want to know how complex Petrino's offense is? On passing plays Mallett was lining up under center with two receivers wide, one in the slot, a tight end, and a back coming out of the backfield. The three receivers and one tight end almost always had an option route. In other words, Mallett was coming to the LOS during a pass play knowing his receivers had multiple routes they could run based on how the defense was lined up. It was up to Mallett to also read the defense and determine what route would best for his receivers to run based on READING the defense.


3. Mallett is a competitor and good leader.
I've already addressed this to an extent. Mallett was elected as team captain by his teammates before he ever took a snap for Arkansas. He is a fierce competitor and someone his teammates raved in regards to his leadership ability.



Now, I know I'm an Arkansas "homer" but, the fact is, Mallett is not only the most polished QB in this class with the most "tools" as a pure passer, but he's also the most NFL ready QB in this class. Yet, he may slip as far as the 3rd or 4th round, and guys like Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton, and even Christian Ponder may go ahead of Mallett in the draft mostly because of some unsubstantiated off-field issues. I personally don't think there is a single quarterback worth a top 10 pick in the draft but, in my opinion, Mallett is the best QB prospect in this class, and the only one worth going in the 10-15 range.

It's a defense heavy draft and I think a team like Carolina, Buffalo, and Arizona are stupid if they don't take a defensive player instead of a quarterback in the top 5.
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Old 04-28-2011, 06:48 PM   #2
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

If my team needed a quarterback, the guy I'd want is Mallett.

I don't really understand the knocks on him, unless something hasn't been said publicly about his past.

I've heard people knock the way he speaks, I didn't even notice that he sounded "different" until someone mentioned it. He sounded like a kid to me with a deep voice.

The only knock I personally have with him, is he looks like a rail. He's a decent weight due to being so tall, but a little cushion wouldn't hurt.
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Old 04-28-2011, 06:52 PM   #3
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

I hope the 49ers grab Mallett in the 2nd or 3rd as a steal. It would be a nice fit where I think he would excel.
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Old 04-28-2011, 07:20 PM   #4
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jailblazers7
I hope the 49ers grab Mallett in the 2nd or 3rd as a steal. It would be a nice fit where I think he would excel.


Yep. I hope the Niners try and get a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round instead of the 1st. I hope they take a look at Locker or Mallett in the 2nd. There isn't much of a difference between Mallett/Locker/Gabbert/Newton imo. Best part is they can sit a year and adjust to the NFL.

Niners have bigger needs than QB. Alex Smith isn't a bad QB and he might be a pretty good QB under Harbough. We need a defensive playmaker to pair up with Patrick Willis and Justin Smith.
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Old 04-28-2011, 07:30 PM   #5
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Keeping with the quarterback theme, let's play a game of "blind resume".

These are their career stats as a starter in college



Player A
185/280
66.1%
182.0 rating
2,854 yards
30 TD
7 INT
10.2 yards per attempt
23 sacks
14-0 record as a starter (1 year)


Player B
812/1317
61.6%
140.7 rating
10,314 yards
71 TD
30 INT
7.8 yards per attempt
50 sacks
44-8 record as a starter (4 years)


Player C
619/1148
53.9%
118.9 rating
7,639 yards
53 TD
35 INT
6.6 yards per attempt
74 sacks
16-26 record as a starter (3.5 years)


Player D
563/920
61.2%
133.5 rating
6,779 yards
40 TD
18 INT
7.4 yards per attempt
42 sacks
18-8 record as a starter (2 years)


Player E
588/947
62.1%
132.9 rating
6,767 yards
48 TD
28 INT
7.1 yards per pass attempt
57 sacks
26-14 record as a starter (3 years)


Player F
542/903
60.0%
142.5 rating
7,377 yards
56 TD
30 INT
8.2 yards per pass attempt
64 sacks
28-11 record as a starter (3 years)


Player G
740/1271
58.2%
142.5 rating
10,098 yards
82 TD
24 INT
7.9 yards per pass attempt
57 sacks
34-19 record as a starter (4 years)


Player H
491/814
60.3%
158.1 rating
7,496 yards
62 TD
19 INT
9.2 yards per pass attempt
49 sacks
18-8 record as a starter (2 years)


These are the 8 quarterbacks you're choosing from:

Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Cam Newton
Colin Kaepernick
Ricky Stanzi
Ryan Mallett
Christian Ponder
Andy Dalton


Now, remember some of them played in a pro-style offense, some played in a spread or other non-pro-style offense, some played in weak conferences, and some played in stronger conferences. However, that's just a "blind" look at the consensus top 8 quarterbacks in the draft class.
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Old 04-28-2011, 07:39 PM   #6
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Good write-up KG. I enjoy reading your posts.

I don't really have much to add because I admittingly don't watch tape or enough of their games to give a solid opinion but I do think the Panthers will take Netwon #1. He is a real enigma for me. No one can dispute the enormous upside the man possesses. His raw talent is off the charts. However like you said, it is all at this point just upside and is that truly worth a #1 pick? 280 passes is nothing.

Anyway, Mayock believes there will be an absurd number of trades in this draft which seems pretty cool. Trades always spice the process up a bit.
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Old 04-28-2011, 07:55 PM   #7
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

I hate this format with just the first round and then 2nd and 3rd tomorrow. It just disrupts the flow for me as a fan. But I can see the merit from the other side.

Hoping the 9'ers get their pick in Peterson. Just hoping....
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Old 04-28-2011, 08:18 PM   #8
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

I wonder if Dallas can get DeMarco Murray in the 3rd round...

THAT would be killer...
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Old 04-28-2011, 08:21 PM   #9
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by -playmaker-
I wonder if Dallas can get DeMarco Murray in the 3rd round...

THAT would be killer...

That would be a helluva pickup for the Cowboys.

As an aside...what the heck is Julio Jones wearing? Looks like I went shopping for him.
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Old 04-28-2011, 08:45 PM   #10
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by -playmaker-
I wonder if Dallas can get DeMarco Murray in the 3rd round...

THAT would be killer...
I'm sure he will be there in the 3rd.
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Old 04-28-2011, 08:46 PM   #11
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Also, I don't think a lot of the guys who actually went to the Draft will even be selected tonight. lol.
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Old 04-28-2011, 08:47 PM   #12
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorKid117
Good write-up KG. I enjoy reading your posts.

I don't really have much to add because I admittingly don't watch tape or enough of their games to give a solid opinion but I do think the Panthers will take Netwon #1. He is a real enigma for me. No one can dispute the enormous upside the man possesses. His raw talent is off the charts. However like you said, it is all at this point just upside and is that truly worth a #1 pick? 280 passes is nothing.

Anyway, Mayock believes there will be an absurd number of trades in this draft which seems pretty cool. Trades always spice the process up a bit.

Appreciate it.

I think Newton is a HUGE reach at #1 overall.

1. They just drafted Clausen in the 2nd round last year so it basically says they are already giving up on him. Clausen wasn't very good in his starts but, Carolina doesn't exactly have any imposing threats at WR and TE other than Steve Smith, and they're just an awful team all-around.

2. Newton is the very definition of a project with a lot of potential. I'm more than fine with the idea of drafting a project QB with a lot of upside but not with the #1 overall pick, when you can get someone like Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, and even A.J. Green. It's not like you're bringing Newton in as a project to sit behind a successful veteran QB and learn from for 2-4 years.

3. Like you said, 280 passes, that's his entire body of work as a D1 collegiate starter. Those 280 passes came in a spread offense where had one or two WR's with predetermined routes. If those routes weren't open then he tucked the ball and ran. And did he call plays in the huddle, make reads at the LOS, and audible and make changes at the LOS? Nope. He stood in the shotgun with the rest of the team lined up in the formation, looked over to the sideline at a big board that had something like "36" written on it, and the team ran that play. That's it.

And he's supposed to be worthy of going #1 overall? A one-hit wonder who has never ran anything close to resembling an NFL offense, does have some off-field issues, and only has a body of work of 280 passes? Please. I'd take any of the guys I already mentioned (Peterson, Miller, Dareus, Fairley, Green) before I took Newton with the #1 overall pick.
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Old 04-28-2011, 09:04 PM   #13
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Can the 'We want FB' people shut up with that chant for now?
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Old 04-28-2011, 09:05 PM   #14
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by IcanzIIravor
Can the 'We want FB' people shut up with that chant for now?

Seriously...
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Old 04-28-2011, 09:06 PM   #15
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Default Re: 2011 NFL Draft Thread

Rumors are Raiders are looking to trade into the 1st round, around the 20-25 pick.
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