Originally Posted by Jballer
I have only gathered the "internet scouting on Valanciunas".
My question is : is the man NBA ready ? 75% 80% 90%
Cause the bennefit of Knight or Walker is that both are likely 75% NBA ready now. Sure they will make rookie mistakes - sure there will be aspects of their game that needs working on - but PGs more or less contribute NOW.
Big men on the other hand seem to be like 5 year projects. See Bynum - see Oden - see Thabeet - see etc etc etc
Well 5 years is too long.
In 5 years :
Demar Derozan will have signed his 1st rookie cap increase extention for 1 -5 years depending on the direction of the team. Less than 5 years if Lbron Dwade and Bosh set precident for "superstar" mobility.
Amirs deal is up.
Ed Davis will be coming up in a similar fashion. Bayliss/Johnson ditto.
I would rather draft they guy that will mature with this young core now - mature and learn to win. You can then tinker at the edges with other vetern players of any time that are complimentry to needs (3 point range?) and or winning attitude.
Like the years we brought Oakley in to lead the way in metal toughness.
Disagree with the whole 5 year development curve. Guards do trend towards producing a bit earlier in their careers but I just don't see these bigs that you speak of that are useless for 5 years before becoming NBA players. Especially regarding top 5-10 players, usually you can get a good read on a player before 5 years.
Bynum has been in the league for 5 years (and had become a good NBA centre years ago).
Oden has already shown he can play (his injuries shouldn't be used to downplay his ability and extra years of development would not change that).
Thabeet was a heavily derided pick even during the draft (but to be fair I guess, he hasn't played 5 years so he may back your point up).
Just looking at some past big men in the top 10 of past drafts:
Howard (even as a HS pick)
Chandler (HS pick)
Biedrins (18 I believe)
Bargnani (barring any unforeseen expansion of his game)
Yes you have certains late bloomer cases such as Jermaine O'Neal (due to PT issues) but big men picked high and given minutes will show development at reasonable rate. These "projects" are usually higher risk picks taken in lower draft slots, or just plain busts.
Toronto should be comfortable taking the BPA period, without any consideration of an extra 2-3 wins next season or the one after. DeRozan and Davis are nice players but not worth making such a short sighted decision. That may be tough to ask of BC however with his 2 year contract.