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Old 10-23-2012, 10:24 PM   #1
KevinNYC
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Default The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

The last debate is done. Two weeks to go. Race is tight. Get out the vote and turnout is going as important as in 2000.

What's the state of the race?

Charlie Cook who is reputed to be trusted enough to view each campaign internal polling put it this way.
Quote:
coming out of the debate, my guess is that the polls will still be dead even.
But if the national polls are looking even, that doesn’t mean that the election is an even-money contest. Although this race is very close, the road to 270 electoral votes is considerably more difficult for Romney than it is for Obama. The president starts off with undisputed leads in 16 states and the District of Columbia with 237 electoral votes, 33 short of the 270 needed to win. Romney begins with equally clear leads in 23 states with 191 electoral votes, 79 short of a victory. Nine states with 110 electoral votes are in the admittedly broad Toss-Up column (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin). Obama needs to win 30 percent of those Toss-Up electoral votes; Romney needs 72 percent of those votes.....

To be sure, this race is so close that it clearly can go either way, but the Obama electoral path looks less steep than the one Romney must traverse, and the final debate seems unlikely to have altered that fact.

Real Clear Politics has Romney up 206 to 201 with 131 electoral votes in the toss up category. However, their definition of tossup is within 5% which is pretty big this late in the game. With no tossups, it has Obama at 281 to 257

Pollster has Obama up 253 to 191 with 94 votes in the tossup category. They have a narrower defintion of tossup. (There's a couple of states within 4% like Nevada and they have that in the Lean Obama category. All their tossups are with 2% points. )

538's nowcast has Obama winning 289 to 249 and gives Obama a 72% chance of a victory. Also it says there is a 7% chance that Romney will win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. He also says Ohio has a 50% chance of being the decisive state in the election. The next greatest state in Virginia with 10%

TPM's Polltracker has Romney up .5% but Obama leading 233 to 195 in the electoral college with 110 tossups. They define tossup as within 2%.

Last edited by KevinNYC : 10-23-2012 at 11:15 PM.
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Old 10-23-2012, 10:29 PM   #2
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

Quote:
Bogus letters questioning Florida voter citizenship investigated
Posted by
CNN's Joe Johns and Ted Metzger
Washington (CNN) - In the critical battleground state of Florida, the state's Department of Law Enforcement and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service tell CNN they have opened a preliminary investigation into a slew of bogus letters to some voters questioning their citizenship and registration just two weeks before the November election.

Written on fake letterhead of a local county's Supervisor of Elections, the letters say that the county "has received information from the Florida Division of Elections regarding your citizenship status, bringing into question your eligibility as a registered voter."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...-investigated/
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Old 10-23-2012, 10:32 PM   #3
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

This is the asshole that's replacing Richard Lugar

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHdzsXjmkmY
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Old 10-23-2012, 10:44 PM   #4
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

So basically if Obama wins Ohio, he wins the race, am I correct? Because he is most likely going to get Wisconsin and Iowa, and Romney is most likely going to get Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.
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Old 10-23-2012, 10:46 PM   #5
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

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Originally Posted by EnoughSaid
So basically if Obama wins Ohio, he wins the race, am I correct? Because he is most likely going to get Wisconsin and Iowa, and Romney is most likely going to get Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.
CNN has an interactive electoral map you can play with..
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Old 10-23-2012, 10:48 PM   #6
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

Quote:
Originally Posted by EnoughSaid
So basically if Obama wins Ohio, he wins the race, am I correct? Because he is most likely going to get Wisconsin and Iowa, and Romney is most likely going to get Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.

It's pretty much all coming down to Ohio.
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Old 10-23-2012, 10:51 PM   #7
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

In all honesty I can't believe that this thing isn't over already. It can't believe that Romney is garnering this support with the flipping and flopping he's done.

This has been a very interesting election.
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:02 PM   #8
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

Jonathan Chait at NY Magazine says that Romney campaign is trying to convince the national press that they are winning, but it's just a bluff, because they aren't there yet.

Quote:
Obama’s lead is narrow — narrow enough that the polling might well be wrong and Romney could win. But he is leading, his lead is not declining, and the widespread perception that Romney is pulling ahead is Romney’s campaign suckering the press corps with a confidence game.
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:05 PM   #9
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

Quote:
Originally Posted by EnoughSaid
So basically if Obama wins Ohio, he wins the race, am I correct? Because he is most likely going to get Wisconsin and Iowa, and Romney is most likely going to get Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.
With Virginia having soooo many military veterans, and Ryan's plan for cutting their benefits....I really don't think Virginia goes his way.
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:06 PM   #10
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timmy D for MVP
In all honesty I can't believe that this thing isn't over already. It can't believe that Romney is garnering this support with the flipping and flopping he's done.

This has been a very interesting election.

Romney proves once again that most people don't tune into the primaries and that you don't really need to have any firm beliefs so long as you look the part, don't commit major gaffes and the economy isn't humming along. If he loses a close election I wouldn't even be surprised if he ran again in 2016 and possibly wins. Economy will most likely be on the uptick regardless of who is President and there will most like be fatigue from a Democratic Presidency, so people will most likely vote for a sane sounding GOP candidate since Biden won't be running on the Democrat side.
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:07 PM   #11
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

Not much of a politics guy but I decided to vote this year. I like Obama but I just flipped a coin to decide so gratz to romney. Already sent my vote from cincinatti
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:17 PM   #12
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rose
With Virginia having soooo many military veterans, and Ryan's plan for cutting their benefits....I really don't think Virginia goes his way.

Some people think that Romney advocating for more ships was just to try to win Virginia where they make ships.
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:20 PM   #13
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
Some people think that Romney advocating for more ships was just to try to win Virginia where they make ships.
That makes sense. I think though his comments on women(binders still makes me laugh), combined with their governor's crazy insane stances on women's health rights will make the women really turn out this election. And take a stance against republicans.
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:21 PM   #14
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish



I'm sorry I can't help but share pics like this.
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:24 PM   #15
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Default Re: The LAST BIGASS Political Thread: Sprint to the finish

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rose


I'm sorry I can't help but share pics like this.

That looks like a college dorm room too. The fact that she misspelled Kenya is just too precious. I won't even get into the state of her room. I'm going to guess she is in one of the schools like Liberty or Bob Jones.
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