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Old 06-19-2008, 10:23 PM   #1
jtfacts
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Default Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

Finally I have some numbers to back up what I have been saying for a while now; Roy Hibbert is a very good prospect and is better than many ranked ahead of him. Please read the information below:

Toss those per-game and per-minute numbers out the window and consider tempo. Georgetown ranked #316 out of #344 NCAA Div I teams in pace this season. (The figure was similar in 2006-07.) Only four tournament teams played slower basketball (and most of them play the Princeton, too). The Hoyas play incredibly slow, which deflates the number of offensive and defensive possessions, which places an artificial ceiling on per-game and per-minute stats.

In fact, Hibbert -- despite recording only 6.4 rebounds a game -- was one of the best rebounders in the nation. He captured 11.5% of all available offensive rebounds, and 17% of all available defensive rebounds. (His numbers were similar in 2006-07.)

His 2.2 blocks a game become more impressive when you account for tempo, too: he blocked a whopping 9.8% of opponent shots. His size and instincts are unquestionable, and those also helped him remain high in the ranks for shooting percentage, foul-drawing, and not turning the ball over.


Team GM's know the above information as well. Hibbert is going in the top 15,GUARANTEED. Hello Posterize

(The above information was found on: http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2008/6...bert-revisited )
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Old 06-19-2008, 11:08 PM   #2
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/...-Preview-2932/

Quote:
Pace Adjustment

Given a variety of offensive and defensive schemes, a box score metric like Win Scores is susceptible to the number of possessions in a game. Certain coaches slow the game down by applying conservative defensive principles and clock-eating offenses while others prefer aggressive defenses and high tempo offenses. Given these disparities, a pace factor can be calculated by assessing the average number of team possessions in game. The pace factor can then be applied to Win Scores to find a tempo-neutral value.

For an example, the below table compares two players from a fast paced team (North Carolina) against two similar players from slower paced teams (Georgetown and Washington State). After adjustments, these player’s grades come out much closer than originally calculated.



Adjusted for pace he compared favorably to Tyler Hansbrough, so take that for it's worth.

Last edited by ClutchCityReturns : 06-19-2008 at 11:10 PM.
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Old 06-19-2008, 11:21 PM   #3
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

I keep saying Hibbert is the best center in this draft.

He has excellent footwork, a consistent hook shot, a good 10-12 foot jumper, great passing skills for a big man, excellent shot blocking ability, great defensive footwork and amazing size.
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Old 06-19-2008, 11:45 PM   #4
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

Would Hibbert be able to play for UNC or teams like that though? I think he is going to have to find a team that is willing to slow things down if he is going to be effective. He is a great prospect because he is a center that will average over 10ppg for sure. For a center, that is rare. But teams are going more with the Bosh, Amare, Dwight centers who can run and jump. Hibbert is not as slow as some people have made him out to be (I have been saying that here since his sophomore season), but he isn't a great athlete. For him I don't think it would be a big deal if he fell to a team that slows it down, rather than going in the lottery to a team that likes to run.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:09 AM   #5
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

Quote:
But teams are going more with the Bosh, Amare, Dwight centers who can run and jump.

Amare and Bosh are PF and besides if Hibbert goes against guys like Dwight, Amare and Bosh then he can shoot over them in the low post. Bosh is 6'11" and 235, Amare is 6'9", 249 and Dwight is 6'10" and 270 while Roy is 7'2" and 278 so he'll have a big size advantage against any of them.

Hibbert will likely be matched up with more traditional low post centers like Shaq, Bynum, Ilgauskas, Yao, Kaman, Duncan ect. and he's easily quick and athletic enough to play against them with the exception of maybe Bynum.

Quote:
Hibbert is not as slow as some people have made him out to be (I have been saying that here since his sophomore season), but he isn't a great athlete.


For a guy 7'2", 278 pounds he's about as good an athlete as you're going to find. The only guys I can remember that size or bigger who were more athletic are Shaq, Andrew Bynum and Wilt Chamberlain.


Quote:
For him I don't think it would be a big deal if he fell to a team that slows it down, rather than going in the lottery to a team that likes to run.

I agree he'd be better in a slow system but I doubt a team with a system that wouldn't fit him would draft him anyway.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:43 AM   #6
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

Amare and Bosh play plenty at "center" though, just not in the traditional sense. When they started Amare with Marion and Diaw, he was the center. Who played more minutes at center than Bosh this year for the Raptors? Hibbert might be able to shoot over the top of them, but they jump higher and faster and will be right on him. An extra few inches isn't going to be a huge help when they are right in your face.

I agree with his athleticism. But as far as him matching up against those centers, he will be matched up with whoever the other teams puts up against him. What about the other 60 games he has to play against the teams other than the teams those guys you listed play for?

And I just pointed out the system stuff because some people seem so concerned about him going above a certain pick. What does it matter if a guy goes 10, 15, or 20? Is he going to be any less of a player if he goes 11, 16, or 21?

I really like Hibbert as a prospect and I think he would be a decent scoring center as a starter and a very good player to bring off the bench. If a team like Toronto or even Philly got him, I think he would be a nice change of pace off the bench. Even a running team like Philly will have times when their outside shots aren't falling, and it is a great luxury to have a center who you can bring in and get some buckets to get the team going.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:55 AM   #7
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by monthh
Amare and Bosh play plenty at "center" though, just not in the traditional sense. When they started Amare with Marion and Diaw, he was the center.

With Shaq now playing 29 minutes at center, Amare is back at his natural power forward position. Hibbert will match up with Shaq when he plays against Phoenix.

Quote:
Who played more minutes at center than Bosh this year for the Raptors?


Rasho played about equal minutes at center.


Quote:
Hibbert might be able to shoot over the top of them, but they jump higher and faster and will be right on him. An extra few inches isn't going to be a huge help when they are right in your face.

With Hibbert's 50 pound weight advantage and 3 inch height advantage on Bosh he'll easily be able to overpower him. He also has about 40 pounds and 5 inches on Amare. Amare can't guard centers so he won't be able to guard a 7'2", 278 pound one with good low post skills.

As for Dwight he may have the wingspan and athleticism to bother Hibbert but I think Hibbert may be able to score against him considering his superior size.

Quote:
I agree with his athleticism. But as far as him matching up against those centers, he will be matched up with whoever the other teams puts up against him. What about the other 60 games he has to play against the teams other than the teams those guys you listed play for?

Well I just looked at the list of teams in the league and there are plenty of big guys around 6'10", 6'11" 250-260 or bigger who play regular minutes and lack off the charts athleticism.


Quote:
And I just pointed out the system stuff because some people seem so concerned about him going above a certain pick. What does it matter if a guy goes 10, 15, or 20? Is he going to be any less of a player if he goes 11, 16, or 21?

I agree with that point.

Quote:
I really like Hibbert as a prospect and I think he would be a decent scoring center as a starter and a very good player to bring off the bench. If a team like Toronto or even Philly got him, I think he would be a nice change of pace off the bench. Even a running team like Philly will have times when their outside shots aren't falling, and it is a great luxury to have a center who you can bring in and get some buckets to get the team going.

I agree. He'd be great on these teams: Chicago, Minnesota, Seattle, Charlotte, New Jersey, Utah, Detroit and Boston.
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:38 AM   #8
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

Hibbert would be a good fit on the Raptors beside Bosh.

It seems like the Raptors are leaning towards keeping Calderon as the PG and if that's the case, they will play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Lots of half-court sets and minimal breaks on a team that desperately needs a C and size in general.
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Old 06-25-2008, 06:32 PM   #9
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

Charlotte just got Denver's 20th pick...I think they're lining up to take Hibbert at 20
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Old 06-25-2008, 07:19 PM   #10
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

You can't go wrong with a 7'2 guy with solid skills. He should be at least a 10/10 guy every night as a rookie. Whichever team drafts him is making a smart investment.

I think either the Sixers or the Wizards are going to pick him up.
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Old 06-25-2008, 07:25 PM   #11
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian
You can't go wrong with a 7'2 guy with solid skills. He should be at least a 10/10 guy every night as a rookie. Whichever team drafts him is making a smart investment.

I think either the Sixers or the Wizards are going to pick him up.
How many players average 6.4 rpg in college and then 10rpg in the pros?
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Old 06-25-2008, 07:32 PM   #12
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Posterize246
How many players average 6.4 rpg in college and then 10rpg in the pros?
Fair enough. I could've sworn he averaged more than that, but apparently not.

10 pts, 5 rbs per game. Who knows. He also averaged 2.2 blocks a game which is pretty damn good (though considering his height, I'd almost expect it to be more than that)
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Old 06-25-2008, 09:14 PM   #13
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

good player, althought 6.4 rpg doesnt cut it even if the tempo is slow.I think If Kenny George were to get into shape he'd be really really good. I mean Kenny did lead the league in blocks had a decent amount of rebounds and shoots well from the line, I hope some giant like him makes it next year, even if he sucks he'll be fun to watch
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Old 06-26-2008, 05:09 AM   #14
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

I think Hibbert will turn out similar to Zydrunas Ilgauskus - a guy you want on your team, but whose defensive limitations limit his usefulness. You don't see much of Big Z in crunch time because the Cavs usually go with Varajeo's defense and energy.
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Old 06-26-2008, 06:26 AM   #15
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Default Re: Roy Hibbert - The Real Numbers

I don't like the Zydrunas Ilgauskus comparison because Roy is a better defender and will be a better post player. Big Z has a good jump shot.

I also don't like people labeling him a "backup center". Jason Collins started for the Nets for years and he was THE WORST CENTER IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD (I am sorry for that outburst, but I was a Nets fan for so long and he was the weakness that we never could get rid of, and believe me, I tried

Also, why is Robin Lopez rated higher than Roy? I can understand Brook's higher rating (although if you look at percentages, Roy and him are even), but Robin?

I think this will be a surprise draft, with people going places where no "mock draft" ever conceived of them going. I just hope Roy goes someplace where he gets alot of playing time or a place like San Antonio where he could be tutored by Tim Duncan.
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