i respect you for trying so early, and i like alot of your players
but i think you have a couple of misreads-
-i see you are maybe? from ohio, so i can see some of your reasoning- for mullens to be a lottery pick next year woud imo be a very huge progression from him- to get to #1 is a mircal shot-
-fariq aminu may not be quite ready to go that high- he will be the number 3 player- on his own team
-patterson is highly overrated as an nba prospect right now- lottery pick for this guy will SHOCK me
- austin day of zaga is a bigger better anthony randolp this time next year- 6-11 future allstar pf- will be a top 5 pick
1- austin daye 6-11 pf gonzaga
2-james johnson 6-8 sf wake forest
3-blake griffen 6-9 pf oklahoma
4- james harden 6-5 sg asu
5-lester hudson 6-3 pg
5-tyler smith 6-8 sf tennessee
6-brandon jennings 6-1 pg arizona??
7-chase buddinger 6-8 sg arizona
7-stephan curry 6-2 pg davidson
8-greg monroe 6-10 pf georgtown
9-demar derozen 6-6 sg sc
10- malcom lee 6-4 pg ucla
11-drew? gordon 6-9 pf ucla
12- scotty hopson 6-6 sg tennessee
13-jrue holliday 6-4 pg ucla
14-sean ogirri 6-3 pg wyoming
15-darren collison 6-1 pg ucla
3 pgs from ucla in the top 15? No way. How does Lee get his minutes behind Collison and Holiday? Drew Gordon could be good but with collison,lee,holiday,shipp,and the other guys in that recruiting class its going to be hard getting some stats up. And I highly doubt Hudson will go that high.Someone at such a small school has a hard enough time getting noticed (jason thompson,rider). If he was top 5 worthy next year he shoulda been a 1st round lock this year. Don't think he's ahead of pgs like collison,holiday,jeremy pargo,ty lawson, scottie reynolds,aj price,kemba walker, sherron collins, etc.
Well Chad Ford even says he is on the 1st round bubble, so I think it is possible. This is a really hard draft to do because after the top 10 or so anyone could go anywhere. Everyone is saying this is a weak draft, but after a year of being the players in the spotlight, I think this draft actually won't be too bad. The freshman class is weaker than in the past couple, but isn't bad at the top. There are a ton of good forwards, not too much size, and a lot of PG.
I think the only locks right now are that Ricky Rubio, Blake Griffin, and BJ Mullens will be lottery picks next year. Other than that, it's way too early to predict. My guess is Austin Daye ends up being the Anthony Randolph of 2009, James Harden will have similar position as Eric Gordon, Tyler Smith=Brandon Rush and Tyreke Evans will be the Darrell Arthur of next year's draft (the 1st rounder who slides on draft day).
Well a year ago everyone had Jordan and Walker in the lottery, and they both went 2nd round. Evans just didn't fit in anywhere, so I had him dropping. More than anything it just shows that I think this freshman class will struggle and not be that deep.
As for Curry, I think his stock is being way overrated. He is a 6-0 shooting guard. Does anyone remember JJ Redick? He was the best shooter in the country just like Curry, and had just as much success, and has done nothing in the NBA. If you talk to scouts the two skills that are the hardest to predict from college to the NBA are shooting and rebounding. That is why guys like Chalmers, CDR, and Foster can fall in the draft. If how they shot in college was a good indicator as to how they would shoot in the NBA, then they are all taken much higher. Those are the only big name guys that shot 45% from 3 last season, and they all fell. There is something to that. Jaycee Carroll who is a far better shooter and scorer overall than Curry didn't even get drafted.
Don't get me wrong, Curry had an amazing tournament and I love to watch him play, but he was just on fire. Look at his games against BCS schools from the regular season. Against UNC he goes 2-12 from 3, against UCLA 3-10, and he had to take 15 3's to get 29 points against NC State. The only team he shot well against was Duke, and he only had 20 points. Even in the tournament he was 5 for 15 against G-Town and 4 for 16 against Kansas. I think something does need to be said for heart and the ability to put missed shots behind you, but Curry is a chucker and I'm really not sold he will go in the 1st round, much less the lottery like some people want him to. I am rooting for him, and he put on maybe the greatest show March Madness has ever seen, but being realistic, he isn't going to be able to take the 10+ 3's he needs to play his game in the NBA.
It will also be interesting to see how he does without Jason Richards, who I think was a better NBA prospect than Curry, plus two of their top 3 rebounders. If Curry can carry them back to the tournament while playing the point like he will probably have to do this year, then he deserves to be picked very high.
The guy I am actually surprised to see no one putting in their top 15 is Hasheem Thabeet. He is not only 7-3, 260, but he is one of the best shot blockers in the country, a good rebounder, and has made huge strides on offense. With another offseason to work on his game, I would not be at all surprised to see him he get over 15ppg. To compare to this years deep center class, Robin Lopez average only 10ppg, JaVale McGee only 13ppg, and two of the big "scoring" centers, Hibbert and Koufus only average 14ppg. If Thabeet averages more than all of them, is a better shot blocker, is bigger than all of them, and a better rebounder than all of them, I don't see why he wouldn't go in the top 10 in a weaker draft. Even compared to Brook Lopez, he isn't all that far behind despite being so raw just a year ago.
The other guy that I really like is Cole Aldrich. Anyone who saw the UNC game knows that this guy has game. He is listed at 6-11, but I would say he ends up being 6-10, and he is very athletic, has a soft touch, and works hard on the glass. It is obviously impossible to pick apart the weakness' in his game only playing 8mpg, but the talent is clearly there. I also saw the Texas Tech game (which was the most dominate 40 minute performace I have seen live, and probably even more impressive than their start against UNC, although against a far lesser opponent), and when he was on the court he was by fare the best player on the court. The only reason he didn't get triple the minutes last year was because Kansas wanted to go with experience. In the Texas Tech game he only played 17 minutes and scored 11 points. The game was over, however, so they were really just garbage points. The thing that stood out to me was the way he dominted the boards. I wasn't sure if maybe he just happened to be having a good day, but he proved to me against UNC that he may just be the top rebounder in major conference basketball next season. I really think that he may end up being the 2nd best big man in the draft by next year. I wouldn't even put it past him to pass Griffin.
The last guy I would like to touch on is Jerome Jordan. I watched him against Memphis in their 2nd meeting of the season, and while he didn't have a big numbers game, he really held his own against a big, strong, and athletic Memphis team. The game was a blowout, but Memphis really won by shooting with Jordan and Tulsa's way undersized forwards holding their own inside. With his dominate play to end the season in the CBI (and against Memphis in the C-USA title game, which some of you may have seen, but I missed), he showed he is ready to take his game to another level. I would say Jordan is already as good as McGee with room to really improve. I think he is ready for a breakout season and should be one of the top legit 7-footers in college baskeball this season. I would be surprised to see him as low as I had him in my draft, and think he is more likely pushing the lottery.
I know this isn't going to be a great draft for big men, but I think these three will end up having as much potential a year from now that we will be talking about all three of them like Brook Lopez. That may not convince you they are good with all the Lopez hate there was on here, but I think it shows that at the top this is a very strong center class, it just isn't deep.