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Old 04-16-2011, 11:45 AM   #16
GOBB
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Default Re: Why are people coming out early when there is going to be a lockout?

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Originally Posted by ILLsmak
Yea but you guys act like those guys aren't getting money already. They might even be getting money from agents already... it makes no sense to go to the draft with a definite lockout.

But I guess not everyone has long-term thinking skills.

-Smak

They are not getting guranteed millions from agents, so why act like thats the case? Who knows if a lockout will happen. The chances are 50-50. You bash them for lon term thinking skills yet a player who was projected late first rd can not go lottery by declaring for the draft. A player who is projected to go high can get a deal under the old CBA which will change. Its funny you say a lockout will happen. Lets say it does, you do know the CBA that we have today will change whenever one is agreed upon correct? That means less guranteed years, less money players can make. The past 2 CBA players years and money dropped. And Stern is pushing the "players make too much" slogan again. So that effects not only current NBA players but how a draft is structured with the rookie wage scale. To think that wont change? Crazy.

Sullinger could go in the top 5 if he left. He stays and those chances could slip especially with other top projected prospects staying. And IF the NBA doesnt change the 1 and done rule Sullinger could be threatened with the 2012 draft class. Which could have him going lower than he would have had he come out in 2011. Which means less money. And sorry but no agent is making up the difference of loss guranteed money from what you could have made in 2011 vs 2012.

Kemba Walker is going to be drafted higher than he should be. He is a borderlinelottery pick. 16-22 range talent. Yet he could go high in a draft thanks to guys pulling their names out. Seems smart to me. How does a lockout hurt a player like Brandon Knight who if he declares will too go higher than he should?
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Old 04-16-2011, 11:46 AM   #17
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Default Re: Why are people coming out early when there is going to be a lockout?

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Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack
Actually, this is when it makes the most sense. After the lockout, there will be a new CBA in place that may have a serious impact on rookie wage scales and length of rookie contracts. By entering now, these guys know the kind of contract that they can expect (substantial and long). Waiting until after the lockout and when there is a new CBA in place is like rolling the proverbial dice.

Bingo
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Old 04-17-2011, 09:23 AM   #18
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Default Re: Why are people coming out early when there is going to be a lockout?

On the other hand, if the CBA expires soon after the draft, would people be in a hurry to sign their players before the new salaries come into effect?

I'm not bashing people per se; I'm just saying they are short sighted. It's all about the money, sure, but if they wanted to play basketball then they should stay in college.

Not sure the lockout is 50/50. They talk like it's much more likely, but... we'll see.

And not to mention guys are coming out, like Jereme Richmond, that aren't lock lottery picks...

Lastly, the rookie scale contract does make a difference... so being a top 5 pick opposed to a late lottery pick is a factor. However, if they are gonna make real money, it's gonna be on their 2nd contract or extension and that is not impacted at all by where they are drafted.

-Smak
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Old 04-17-2011, 12:51 PM   #19
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Default Re: Why are people coming out early when there is going to be a lockout?

You guys have pretty much said all the there is to be said. Covered all the angles. But I'll sort of summarize all my opinions here.

There seems to be two lines of thought.

To Come Out.
With the impending labor strife, it would make some sense to come out and get a deal in place under the current CBA rookie structure. One of the first bargaining chips the union uses is the rookie salary scale, it's the first bone thrown to the owners, in part, because the union doesn't represent any future players it would effect. It's almost certain that whatever the new deal is, it'll be worse financially for the next incoming class. If you come out now, and if the draft is pushed through prior to lockout, then the owners would have to uphold the current payment structure to the players they draft, cause dems was da rules at the time.
The other benefit is the extra year of being paid. You hear guys fighting for those extra guaranteed years in salary all the time (something I'm guessing the owners will be fighting hard to put a cap on, probably looking at 4-5 year guarantees max on contracts), it's the same getting drafted. You're better off being paid for that extra year. You'll hit your first FA a year sooner, and so on. It's kind of expression "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush", you're better off having one than being promised two.
The third argument for coming to me would be when you stay, you basically open yourself up to another year of scrutiny. Anything you don't improve on will be looked at as a serious flaw (Sullinger could be a POY next year, but if he doesn't "look" better physically, it will be held against him), rather than some small wart a scout will think he can fix. You also face a deeper pool. A new class will come in, with it's own highly touted guys, and it's been clear for a long time that NBA scouts and GMs all love the new car smell.

To Stay.
I think the apocolypt scenerio for these guys is that they come out, sign with an agent, a lockout freezes up the draft, the NCAA won't let them back, and they're stuck for a year scrambling for basketball. Then the following year they've fallen completely off the radar. Loans and insurance can be taken out, but then you're paying a premium on money you don't even know you'll be getting. Best case you join a second tier league. Go to Europe more than likely. But playing a different game, against grown men, could expose you more than promote you, and may cost you more than just sitting out entirely. You could be working out with proffessional trainers through your agent, and probably help yourself in draft workout sense more than anything else.


Overall.
I'd suggest coming out, hoping the draft goes through, and if it doesn't, get into a professional training situation. A guy like Sullinger would stand a lot better getting his body worked on full time by a pro strength guy than he will in limited practice time even at a state of he art pro factory like Ohio State. I wouldn't go to Europe. I know it "worked" for Brandon Jennings, but while there's no way to tell, I'd guess he would've gone higher had he played in college than overseas, even though I'd guess the overseas experience was better for him in most other ways than money. But it does not appear to have worked for Jeremy Tyler. And if you guys (which by the way, this is the by far the most basketball saavy section on the board), are searching your memory banks for the name Jeremy Tyler ... then that's my point exactly. Especially when a year like the one had by Daniel Orton can secure a first round contract out of college.
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Old 04-18-2011, 12:39 AM   #20
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Default Re: Why are people coming out early when there is going to be a lockout?

The idea of playing no organized basketball (teams can have no contact with draftees after June 30 2011 if there is a lockout) until possibly Jan 2012 or later will have some kids thinking that college for another year in a structured environment isn't such a bad idea as they (top prospects) can always purchase insurance in case of an injury in college.

I just hope that the players who take loans from agents (snakes) don't have to repay them them at a high interest rate as they should all be no interest loans in my mind.

The NBA Vegas Summer League has been cancelled as well.

If a kid is a guaranteed NBA Lottery pick (Top 13) I would say go, if not stay in school.
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