Tim Duncan, bully-ball, and rebounding your own misses

[Im Still Ballin]

The idea of finesse vs. bully-ball has always intrigued me. Each approach has its own strengths and weaknesses.

Bully-ball tends to result in a closer FGA, a greater free-throw rate, and more of an opportunity to rebound one's own miss (more on that in a second.) The scoring gravity is more inverse, collapsing the defense inwards and opening up shooting opportunities on the perimeter.

Conversely, finesse generally results in a great average FGA distance, a more open/uncontested shot, and fewer fouls drawn. The defense is warped more in a way that typically opens up the interior, creating dribble-drive scoring chances and passing opportunities to cutters and interior bigs.

These summaries are just generalizations. Finesse approaches can draw fouls and result in a dunk or layup at the rim. Bully-ball can lead to uncontested FGAs, dribble drive scoring chances, and passing opportunities in the paint.

Both back-court and front-court players can display a preference for either. A finesse-oriented jump-shooting big like Dirk or Bosh. A power-slashing guard like Wade or Westbrook.

Obviously, presenting scoring as such is a bit of a false dichotomy. A simplification of sorts. All players display elements of each, leveraging their size, athleticism, and skill to put the ball in the basket in various ways and create shots for teammates. I guess the distinction is that some rely on one more than the other.

Stats are a crude measuring tool to assess offensive impact. They don't tell much about how a player scores or creates for teammates. Nor do they inform one about positioning and its value to team offense. At least the more vanilla, publically available stats.

Yet, much of our online discourse boils down to points per game/points per 75 and true shooting percentage/league-relative adjustments like TS+ or rTS. This brings me to the topic of this thread.

I was re-reading Thinking Basketball's top-40 profile on Tim Duncan. He was dubbed The Big Fundamental but he was quite physical, displaying something of a bully-ball game to fight for position down low. But I guess that is fundamental low-post play.

There was a part of the write-up that covered Duncan's offense rebounding. It specifically mentioned offensive rebounds from Tim's own missed shots.

3% of his shots and "12 to 15% of his FGAs" were of this nature according to Ben's 1998-2008 800-possession tracking sample:

Among top-1,000 scorers, Duncan’s offensive rebounding rates were above the 86th percentile in every one of his first 13 seasons, peaking in the 93rd percentile. During his prime, he turned this into offense, tapping in his own misses as part of his attack:5

Based on tracking, I estimate about 3 shots per 100 were of this nature, which means that about 12 to 15 percent of his field goal attempts came off putbacks like this.

I'm not sure if I'm interpreting this right. But I thought I'd consider these scoring possessions as one FGA to get a more accurate portrayal of his FG% and TS%. Ben has talked about doing this for Jokic, someone who also rebounds and put-backs a lot of his own misses.

'98-'08 Duncan:

- 16.0 FGA x 0.88 to 0.85 = 14.08 to 13.6 adjusted FGA
- 8.2 FGM / 14.08 to 13.6 = 58.2% to 60.3% adjusted FG
- 61.88% TS to 63.65% adjusted TS

Have I interpreted the data correctly? His TSA (true shot attempts) would be closer to 20, right? 16 FGA and 7.3 FTA. Or is it the 3 out of 100 shot attempts I should be multiplying? If I remove 3% of his FGAs Tim's FG% and TS% go up to 52.8% and 57.12% respectively.

It's one or the other. Either way, Tim's scoring efficiency goes way up. I imagine guys like Wilt, Moses, Barkley, Shaq, and Dwight Howard get decent statistical boosts. When it comes to bigs, the bully-ball approach understates scoring efficiency because of these possessions. I always heavily consider this when looking at Moses' FG% and TS%.

Here are some examples of Duncan rebounding his own misses:

[Im Still Ballin]

EDIT: Made a couple of errors on the stats. Here they are revised:

'98-'08 Duncan: [threes & heaves removed]

- 16.1 FGA x 0.88 to 0.85 = 14.168 to 13.685 adjusted FGA
- 8.2 FGM / 14.168 to 13.685 = 57.8% to 59.9% adjusted FG [was 51.1% FG unadjusted]
- 62.14% TS to 63.92% adjusted TS [was 55.92% TS unadjusted]

Have I interpreted the data correctly? His TSA (true shot attempts) would be closer to 20, right? 16.1 FGA and 7.3 FTA. Or is it the 3 out of 100 shot attempts I should be multiplying? If I remove 3% of his FGAs Tim's FG% and TS% go up to 52.5% and 57.36% respectively.

[ralph_i_el]

Great post, I was thinking the same thing recently.

[90sgoat]

Jokic does a lot of this. He is an excellent offensive rebounder and of his own misses. Soft touch, but always being a bully.

On the flip side, the finesse player will be better suited for a game winner or clutch basket. We remember Duncan missing that gimme, when a make would have ended Lebron's career.

[Carbine]

Duncan is actually one of the most clutch offensive true bigs of all time. Him and Kareem.

[dankok8]

Good post. Because of offensive rebounding, true efficiency per possession can often be higher than TS%.

Someone like Moses Malone probably benefits most from this kind of adjustment.

[Street Hunger]

Rereading this post. Interesting stuff.

[j3lademaster]

Duncan is actually one of the most clutch offensive true bigs of all time. Him and Kareem.

Yup. 2003 Duncan also has the record for most winshares in a single playoff run.